ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6761 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:44 pm

Looks like the Ridge is starting to build back in...

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6762 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:46 pm

SFLcane wrote:Open wave @ 21hrs...


Can't see that based on whats going on now, and better conditions later.
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#6763 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:48 pm

their was ts few year ago that became hurr on west tip haiti quick until make landfall in haiti
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6764 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:48 pm

Here's a 5 day 200mb Vorticity loop. Looks like the trough is definitely pulling out.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor1/wg8vor1java.html

Edit: If you have problems loading loops this may cause slowness...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6765 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:48 pm

LoL who kicked the GFS server tonight.... Then again the data it was being fed was alot different than what we have in the water right now

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6766 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:49 pm

It appears its game over per the 00z GFS @27hrs...Open wave approaching sfl.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6767 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:51 pm

This shouldn't come as any suprise to us. Haven't we learned now to expect the unexpected with this storm? Emily has been one step ahead of the models from the get go and apparently they are still trying to play catchup.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6768 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:51 pm

SFLcane wrote:It appears its game over per the 00z GFS @27hrs...Open wave approaching sfl.


Only way I see that happening is if it get stuck over cuba for a long time.
Last edited by Miami Storm Tracker on Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6769 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:51 pm

SFLcane wrote:It appears its game over per the 00z GFS @27hrs...Open wave approaching sfl.



Perhaps the conditions in the Bahamas are not going to be as favorable as first thought..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6770 Postby stormreader » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:52 pm

Blown Away wrote:WPTV Met says 3 possible tracks: (1) E of SFL thorugh Bahamas; (2) Landfall in SFL; (3) Up the Florida W Coast. Met says track 2 or 3 is most likely, based on 2 models showing SFL landfall.


There you go. That track up the west coast now being considered as a definite possibility.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6771 Postby Riptide » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:53 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:It appears its game over per the 00z GFS @27hrs...Open wave approaching sfl.



Perhaps the conditions in the Bahamas are not going to be as favorable as first thought..

You know it's a bogus run though because the GFDL and HWRF develop this. The GFS did this before, it simply likes to drop tropical cyclones occasionally.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6772 Postby tailgater » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:54 pm

Jevo wrote:LoL who kicked the GFS server tonight.... Then again the data it was being fed was alot different than what we have in the water right now

Image



LOL someone's got to much time on their hands
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6773 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:54 pm

did or is the center reforming to the se?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6774 Postby PTPatrick » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:55 pm

How you can say that when it's just emerging off Haiti at 30 hours. GFS hasn't gotten out so far as south Florida. And either way , at 30 hours it still has a vort max. Gfs surface shows squirlly things sometimes . It can show a cane at a 1000 mb ts. The resolution isn't there to predict strength.

At 42 hrs has it looking less strong. But still not as far as SFL . But again, you can't look to gfs for strength. See what gfdl/hwrf do.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#6775 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:55 pm

I wouldn't put much weight on the GFS opening up Emily. The GFS has always been better at forecasting track than intensity. Look at where it's sending Emily (or what's left of it)
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6776 Postby sunnyday » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:56 pm

What is more likely? People in West Palm wake up to an all clear on Thursday morning, or they wake up to a ts watch? I am totally confused. 8-)
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6777 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:58 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:did or is the center reforming to the se?


No. Do you see the arch in the convection just south of the southern most tip of Hispanola? That is where the center is located.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6778 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 11:00 pm

WIll someone post a link for the GFS please
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Re:

#6779 Postby stormreader » Wed Aug 03, 2011 11:01 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:geez.. shears seems to have dropped off substantially ... that is a very large burst of convection... LLC still on very western side but with so much convection would not be surprised to see even more migration of the LLC into the convection..


this could bomb out tonight if the shear really is dropping off.. if this convection persists when recon gets out there we could have a 60mph ts ..


Looks like the whole mass of convection is beginning to rotate now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6780 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 03, 2011 11:01 pm

sunnyday wrote:What is more likely? People in West Palm wake up to an all clear on Thursday morning, or they wake up to a ts watch? I am totally confused. 8-)


TS watch more likely than all clear. I'm not saying there will be a TS watch in the morning, it's just more likely.
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