ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[pavelbure224]

Per twitter from David Bernard on CBS 4 in South Florida

Tropical storm watch likely by 5am for #southflorida tune in to cbs4 with @LissetteCBS4 @CraigSetzer @CBS4miami @CBS4Weather @CBSEveningNews

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z HWRF back east somewhat through the Bahamas.

[SouthFloridawx]

If you want, here is a link to the 850mb vorticity...


http://tinyurl.com/3dy3fsm

You can track it better here. It's not an open wave...

[img]http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/1436/gfswnatl048850vor500ht2.gif

What part of that is Emily? I'm tracking the vorticity entering the FL straits from Cuba as what's left of Emily. Is Emily the strong vorticity in the Central Bahamas?

Look at this and watch the open wave lines that come from the opened Emily:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

lol I am confused.. have you figured out what is what?

I appears to be that begins south of Hispaniola and moves into the Central/Eastern Bahamas.

Jeremy here: http://tinyurl.com/3dy3fsm

[umguy]

I think Emily may have stalled and tucked the center under the convection in a blow-up. This stall is probably the precursor to a turn so it will probably get wrecked on Hispaniola in any case. Could be bad rain problems in store for them.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That would be have to be a really sharp turn. It's going to catch the little piece of Haiti and that's about it. It's going to shoot the gap.

[SouthDadeFish]

Very interesting, and I agree about the watch for S FL. Also recon has reached intercept altitude and has already found a 40 knot SFMR reading.

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 040501
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 08 20110804
045200 1650N 06759W 3759 08037 0419 -180 //// 134012 013 028 004 05
045230 1650N 06802W 3758 08040 0418 -180 //// 128013 013 030 003 05
045300 1651N 06804W 3758 08035 0416 -180 //// 130014 014 030 003 01
045330 1652N 06807W 3759 08035 0416 -180 //// 146014 015 029 005 01
045400 1652N 06810W 3759 09538 0453 -180 //// 162013 014 029 006 01
045430 1653N 06812W 3758 08039 0416 -180 //// 162011 012 030 006 01
045500 1653N 06815W 3758 08036 0414 -180 //// 184012 012 030 005 01
045530 1654N 06817W 3757 08037 0415 -180 //// 193017 019 031 005 01
045600 1654N 06820W 3758 08035 0415 -180 //// 204017 018 030 004 01
045630 1655N 06822W 3822 07926 0419 -170 //// 205017 018 030 006 01
045700 1656N 06825W 3957 07662 0401 -155 //// 196017 017 030 005 01
045730 1657N 06827W 4085 07421 0384 -143 //// 188016 017 029 005 01
045800 1657N 06829W 4219 07175 0370 -130 //// 181018 018 030 004 01
045830 1658N 06832W 4356 06931 0354 -115 //// 181018 019 031 005 01
045900 1659N 06834W 4500 06679 0339 -102 //// 183020 020 031 005 01
045930 1659N 06836W 4650 06429 0324 -090 //// 185023 024 030 004 01
050000 1700N 06838W 4801 06180 0308 -077 //// 191019 021 029 003 01
050030 1701N 06840W 4962 05927 0295 -065 //// 196018 019 029 003 01
050100 1701N 06842W 5173 05598 0276 -048 //// 195019 020 030 003 01
050130 1702N 06844W 5365 05310 0259 -033 //// 195021 021 034 003 01
$$

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 040511
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 09 20110804
050200 1703N 06846W 5575 05002 //// -019 //// 200020 021 033 004 01
050230 1703N 06848W 5792 04687 //// -009 //// 205022 024 033 004 01
050300 1704N 06851W 6022 04386 //// -002 //// 194032 035 034 003 01
050330 1705N 06853W 6284 04046 //// +012 //// 173039 040 034 000 05
050400 1705N 06855W 6556 03702 //// +037 //// 165041 041 032 002 01
050430 1706N 06857W 6813 03387 //// +060 //// 154038 039 033 001 05
050500 1707N 06859W 7077 03072 //// +078 //// 147036 038 034 004 01
050530 1707N 06901W 7329 02779 //// +096 //// 147033 035 035 006 01
050600 1708N 06903W 7594 02480 //// +112 //// 144033 033 035 006 01
050630 1709N 06905W 7855 02190 //// +126 //// 145033 034 036 005 01
050700 1709N 06908W 8125 01903 //// +143 //// 146033 033 037 006 01
050730 1710N 06910W 8392 01619 //// +159 //// 138030 030 038 006 01
050800 1710N 06912W 8439 01561 //// +160 //// 138029 030 039 007 01
050830 1711N 06913W 8425 01577 //// +159 //// 140030 030 039 006 01
050900 1711N 06915W 8428 01572 //// +159 //// 138030 030 036 007 05
050930 1712N 06917W 8428 01570 0110 +159 +029 137030 030 040 006 00
051000 1712N 06919W 8428 01569 0107 +157 +092 136030 030 039 007 00
051030 1712N 06921W 8433 01566 0113 +151 +096 137030 031 039 007 00
051100 1712N 06923W 8425 01574 0115 +148 +100 137031 031 039 008 00
051130 1712N 06925W 8425 01572 0115 +144 +103 135032 033 038 007 00
$$

[HurricaneRobert]

Florida hasn't had a hurricane since Wilma, right?

[SouthDadeFish]

Florida hasn't had a hurricane since Wilma, right?

I believe you are correct, although Fay was close.

[umguy]

Nope. Wilma was the last one to roll through.

[bahamaswx]

Heavier bursting closer to the LLC. Expanding west.

[weatherSnoop]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 040521
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 10 20110804
051200 1712N 06927W 8435 01564 0114 +150 +105 133034 034 038 009 00
051230 1712N 06929W 8429 01572 0114 +145 +107 135035 035 039 010 00
051300 1712N 06930W 8425 01572 0111 +149 +109 136037 040 039 010 00
051330 1712N 06932W 8422 01577 0120 +140 +110 128037 043 039 024 03
051400 1712N 06934W 8422 01573 0120 +137 +111 121030 031 041 014 03
051430 1712N 06936W 8436 01566 0120 +140 +111 130035 035 040 007 03
051500 1712N 06938W 8429 01573 0124 +134 +110 124034 036 039 009 00
051530 1712N 06940W 8430 01567 0126 +127 +109 118038 040 043 017 00
051600 1712N 06942W 8418 01583 0129 +126 +107 112034 037 043 016 00
051630 1712N 06944W 8425 01574 0130 +123 +105 113031 033 042 031 00
051700 1712N 06946W 8431 01567 0128 +125 +103 118030 031 049 029 00
051730 1712N 06948W 8415 01586 0131 +121 +102 122036 042 054 032 00
051800 1712N 06950W 8433 01567 0128 +123 +102 118035 041 056 024 03
051830 1712N 06952W 8424 01579 0127 +129 +103 125031 034 048 016 00
051900 1712N 06954W 8422 01578 0117 +140 +103 136032 033 044 008 00
051930 1712N 06956W 8430 01567 0112 +146 +104 128029 031 041 008 00
052000 1712N 06958W 8437 01560 0115 +141 +106 124027 028 041 010 00
052030 1712N 07000W 8431 01567 0112 +145 +109 130026 027 041 010 00
052100 1712N 07002W 8428 01568 0105 +153 +111 136024 024 041 010 00
052130 1712N 07004W 8430 01564 0102 +155 +113 135028 031 041 011 00

[weatherSnoop]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[baitism]

Storm is really starting to blow up and you can really see the twist now.

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 040531
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 11 20110804
052200 1712N 07006W 8431 01563 0108 +147 +115 147033 034 043 012 00
052230 1712N 07007W 8429 01566 0111 +140 +117 148033 035 042 012 00
052300 1712N 07009W 8430 01562 0109 +141 +119 148032 033 041 010 00
052330 1712N 07011W 8428 01567 0107 +145 +119 148034 034 041 008 00
052400 1712N 07013W 8426 01564 0101 +149 +119 146035 036 039 009 00
052430 1712N 07015W 8436 01555 0104 +143 +120 146037 037 038 010 00
052500 1712N 07017W 8428 01563 0103 +143 +121 154036 036 039 009 00
052530 1712N 07019W 8427 01561 0105 +138 +122 155037 038 040 008 00
052600 1712N 07020W 8428 01557 0106 +136 +123 148036 039 041 010 00
052630 1712N 07022W 8427 01561 0104 +135 +123 152037 038 041 011 00
052700 1712N 07024W 8424 01561 0102 +136 +123 154041 042 042 012 00
052730 1712N 07026W 8428 01553 0091 +151 +123 156040 040 040 006 00
052800 1712N 07028W 8436 01545 0089 +155 +124 152038 039 039 006 00
052830 1712N 07030W 8428 01555 0083 +163 +125 149037 038 040 005 00
052900 1712N 07032W 8433 01549 0087 +158 +127 145033 036 039 006 00
052930 1712N 07033W 8423 01561 0096 +145 +129 142031 032 040 009 00
053000 1712N 07035W 8430 01555 0102 +137 +131 136035 036 037 015 00
053030 1712N 07037W 8433 01553 0106 +135 +130 143036 038 040 016 00
053100 1712N 07039W 8427 01561 0107 +132 +129 140039 041 045 021 00
053130 1712N 07041W 8434 01546 0100 +134 +127 138034 039 047 027 03

[stormhunter7]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This image looks wrong for some reason... recon and the IR Sat image dont match up to me?

[TexasF6]

Wow Recon booked it out of Emily! I hope they are turing around...

[weatherSnoop]

UZNT13 KNHC 040504
XXAA 54054 99173 70663 04376 99012 28844 11522 00109 27834 10520
92796 23042 13027 85531 19858 12521 70177 09850 14026 50588 06917
16030 40759 16336 19026 88999 77999
31313 09608 80431
61616 AF309 1005A EMILY OB 02
62626 SPL 1740N06637W 0443 MBL WND 11022 AEV 20802 DLM WND 14525
012376 WL150 11021 084 REL 1733N06633W 043158 SPG 1740N06637W 044
254 =
XXBB 54058 99173 70663 04376 00012 28844 11950 24026 22850 19858
33694 09450 44594 00924 55578 00708 66536 03711 77433 14734 88402
16132 99390 165// 11376 191//
21212 00012 11522 11994 11020 22984 11023 33903 13027 44850 12521
55714 13027 66664 15526 77549 15033 88418 17029 99376 /////
31313 09608 80431
61616 AF309 1005A EMILY OB 02
62626 SPL 1740N06637W 0443 MBL WND 11022 AEV 20802 DLM WND 14525
012376 WL150 11021 084 REL 1733N06633W 043158 SPG 1740N06637W 044
254 =
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeah they aren't matching up like my google earth images are, I'm not sure why.