ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 040556
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY SPREADING INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 71.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN

[SouthFloridawx]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040651
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 19 20110804
064200 1559N 07020W 6965 03184 0115 +068 +052 184037 039 027 003 00
064230 1559N 07019W 6968 03181 0115 +070 +053 182037 038 028 003 00
064300 1600N 07017W 6967 03185 0120 +068 +055 184036 036 028 003 00
064330 1600N 07015W 6963 03190 0117 +070 +056 181036 037 028 002 00
064400 1601N 07013W 6969 03185 0107 +080 +056 179037 038 026 001 00
064430 1602N 07011W 6967 03186 0114 +075 +059 182034 034 025 001 00
064500 1602N 07009W 6967 03187 0111 +076 +061 183034 035 025 003 00
064530 1603N 07007W 6965 03190 0113 +074 +063 184033 035 026 002 00
064600 1603N 07006W 6967 03186 0116 +073 +066 183033 034 027 002 00
064630 1604N 07004W 6967 03187 0114 +073 +068 178033 034 026 002 00
064700 1605N 07002W 6968 03185 0111 +074 +069 175034 035 028 002 00
064730 1605N 07000W 6966 03187 0101 +083 +069 171036 037 027 002 00
064800 1606N 06958W 6969 03185 0102 +082 +069 173035 035 028 001 00
064830 1606N 06957W 6912 03243 0085 +083 +069 175035 036 028 001 00
064900 1607N 06955W 6701 03496 0078 +068 //// 171037 040 029 000 05
064930 1608N 06953W 6450 03806 //// +038 //// 175040 040 /// /// 05
065000 1608N 06951W 6217 04106 //// +015 //// 175042 043 /// /// 05
065030 1609N 06949W 6015 04373 //// -000 //// 178040 041 /// /// 05
065100 1609N 06947W 5824 04622 //// -015 //// 181037 038 /// /// 05
065130 1610N 06945W 5645 04869 //// -029 //// 181038 038 /// /// 05
$$
;

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040703
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 20 20110804
065200 1611N 06943W 5471 05119 0215 -033 //// 181032 037 /// /// 05
065230 1611N 06941W 5306 05360 0229 -036 //// 184025 025 /// /// 05
065300 1612N 06940W 5161 05583 0244 -043 //// 192024 025 031 004 05
065330 1613N 06938W 5038 05774 0258 -050 //// 200023 024 029 004 01
065400 1613N 06936W 4911 05973 0269 -060 //// 201024 025 /// /// 05
065430 1614N 06934W 4793 06166 0283 -071 //// 199025 025 025 002 05
065500 1614N 06932W 4682 06346 0294 -078 //// 197022 023 025 001 05
065530 1615N 06930W 4578 06523 0307 -088 //// 194021 022 024 001 05
065600 1616N 06928W 4477 06698 0319 -097 //// 182021 023 027 001 05
065630 1616N 06926W 4388 06857 0330 -109 //// 174020 023 024 002 05
065700 1617N 06924W 4286 07037 0343 -119 //// 167019 019 026 001 05
065730 1618N 06922W 4204 07187 0357 -129 //// 161019 019 024 002 01
065800 1618N 06920W 4114 07352 0369 -137 //// 157016 016 022 003 01
065830 1619N 06918W 4051 07470 0377 -143 //// 165015 016 024 003 01
065900 1619N 06916W 3998 07571 0385 -149 //// 173017 017 025 003 05
065930 1620N 06914W 3939 07686 0392 -158 //// 167018 019 026 002 01
070000 1621N 06912W 3918 07723 0393 -160 //// 149016 017 027 004 01
070030 1621N 06910W 3922 07714 0391 -160 //// 132011 013 025 004 01
070100 1622N 06908W 3930 07698 0390 -160 //// 131010 011 024 003 01
070130 1623N 06905W 3921 07714 0391 -160 //// 135010 011 027 002 01
$$
;

[SouthFloridawx]

Do you guys think recon is heading back already?

[SouthFloridawx]

Do you guys think Recon is heading back to base?

[jhpigott]

Looks like another Westward shift and an "Increase threat to the SE US" at 5

Except for most of the models now trending back east . . . frustrating storm to forecast.

[Bocadude85]

Anyone know if the Euro is out yet?

[SouthFloridawx]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040712
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 21 20110804
070200 1624N 06903W 3927 07705 0391 -156 //// 146011 012 026 003 01
070230 1624N 06900W 3923 07712 0391 -156 //// 144011 012 026 003 01
070300 1625N 06858W 3926 07707 0391 -156 //// 142012 012 029 002 01
070330 1626N 06855W 3925 07708 0390 -157 //// 139008 009 026 003 01
070400 1627N 06853W 3925 07708 0391 -158 //// 138011 013 027 002 01
070430 1628N 06851W 3918 07722 0392 -160 //// 135008 011 027 001 01
070500 1628N 06848W 3929 07701 0391 -156 //// 140009 010 028 001 01
070530 1629N 06846W 3922 07717 0393 -157 //// 145011 012 027 001 01
070600 1630N 06843W 3925 07707 0391 -155 //// 136008 009 028 000 05
070630 1631N 06841W 3927 07712 0398 -159 //// 162010 010 027 001 01
070700 1632N 06838W 3919 07722 0392 -161 //// 165012 015 027 001 01
070730 1632N 06836W 3925 07711 0393 -161 //// 171015 016 027 001 01
070800 1633N 06833W 3922 07714 0393 -160 //// 178015 015 027 000 01
070830 1634N 06831W 3929 07706 0394 -160 //// 173015 015 026 001 01
070900 1635N 06828W 3921 07718 0394 -160 //// 166014 015 027 000 01
070930 1636N 06826W 3925 07711 0393 -160 //// 161015 015 026 000 01
071000 1636N 06823W 3923 07713 0393 -161 //// 163014 014 025 000 01
071030 1637N 06821W 3922 07717 0394 -160 //// 167013 013 024 001 01
071100 1638N 06818W 3928 07706 0394 -160 //// 172011 012 024 000 01
071130 1639N 06816W 3919 07723 0395 -160 //// 174011 012 024 000 01
$$
;

[MississippiWx]

It seems that way. Thanks for posting the info. Really not sure what's up. They may be having some issues on the plane.

[Florida1118]

Looks like another Westward shift and an "Increase threat to the SE US" at 5

Except for most of the models now trending back east . . . frustrating storm to forecast.

I just looked at the...Ah. It would appear they have. Well Unless its going to suddenly go NNW in the next few hours majority of the out to sea models arent going to happen. The NHC needs to cut the cord on the models, they just arent doing so hot as of now.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like another Westward shift and an "Increase threat to the SE US" at 5

Except for most of the models now trending back east . . . frustrating storm to forecast.

Tell me about it.

Storm stays on westward track, which increases threat SE United States, but the models decided to moved a tad bit eastward.

[Florida1118]

Looks like another Westward shift and an "Increase threat to the SE US" at 5

Except for most of the models now trending back east . . . frustrating storm to forecast.

Tell me about it.

Storm stays on westward track, which increases threat SE United States, but the models decided to moved a tad bit eastward.

I just wish she was dead already lol this is just a mass of ugly confusion with a name.

[bamajammer4eva]

7 Models (CMC, UKMET, GFS, the 3 BAM's, & NAM)send it to FL or Gulf

4 Models (Nogaps, HWRF, GFDL & EURO) recurve over the Bahamas

[Florida1118]

It seems that way. Thanks for posting the info. Really not sure what's up. They may be having some issues on the plane.

Appears their heading home...just another crap moment with Emily. She is not well liked by many...

[SouthFloridawx]

No problem. That's what I was thinking. Data hasn't been coming out very timely and there was some delays.

If anyone would like to take over posting the data that would be great. Not much more to see with this one tonight. It kind of sucks because it's starting to look a lot better tonight. Just as a note, that VDM was only about 40NM away from the Southern tip there...

[MississippiWx]

Recon can only get so close to land and the center was probably past their limit. The way she is crawling means that she probably wasn't going to move from that spot for a while.

[SouthFloridawx]

Nice convection right over the center!

[Sanibel]

Deep black IR burst.

Edit: Center colocation and burst can only mean intensification near Haitian flood threat area.