ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Florida1118]

And more of Florida is out of the cone, they are still counting on the models bringing it up in the next few hours.

[Florida1118]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 040849
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE ISLAND OF
HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY
AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN

[Florida1118]

000
WTNT25 KNHC 040848
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
0900 UTC THU AUG 04 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 71.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 71.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 71.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN

[Florida1118]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 040853
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT EMILY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...AND IT IS VERY WEAK ABOVE 700 MB. THE JET DATA
INDICATED 300 MB WINDS BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 45 KT. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAD TO ABORT ITS MISSION DUE
TO AVIONICS PROBLEMS.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARD
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD
TURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72
HR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA
WILL EVOLVE INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH OF EMILY. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM...AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS YET
ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE SHIPS...
LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR DUE
TO SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 HR SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[MississippiWx]

Recon is apparently headed back out to her.

[Florida1118]

NWS Tampa-

NEEDLESS TO SAY...MY CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS
VERY LOW. TROPICAL STORM EMILY CONTINUES TO CHURN SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. THE STORM HAS RESUMED A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION...BUT HAS
YET TO MAKE THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST. THE LONGER EMILY MOVES WEST...THE GREATER THE CHANCE
THAT IT WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER HERE IN WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES EMILY WELL TO OUR EAST...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME ENHANCED
WINDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR ZONES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
I RAISED POPS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT...BUT STILL MAINTAINED JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THE TRACK OF EMILY BECOMES MORE
CLEAR.

NWS Miami-

WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. HOWEVER...DID BUMP UP POPS
ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH UP WITH THE CURRENT TRACK GUIDANCE. AS
OF THIS MORNING...TROPICAL STORM EMILY REMAINED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
ACTUALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...AND THIS GUIDANCE HAS THE
G4 DROPSONDE DATA FROM YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...EMILY HAS THUS
FAR REFUSED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THE STORM IS ALSO
SUFFERING FROM DRY AIR AND SHEAR KEEPING THE SYSTEM POORLY
ORGANIZED. THE LONGER EMILY STAYS ON ITS WESTERLY TRACK...THE
GREATER THE CHANCES OF EMILY IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TAKES EMILY NEAR OR OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS TRIGGERED TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WORDING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY...LAKE OKEECHOBEE (SATURDAY NIGHT) AND COASTAL BROWARD
COUNTY (SATURDAY NIGHT). THE ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 AM ONCE THE NEW TRACK AND PROBABILITIES
COME IN FROM THE NHC.

NWS Melbourne-
FRI-SAT NIGHT...FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS EMILY
TRACKING MORE TO THE WEST AND OVER WEST CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS AND
OFF GRAND BAHAMA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM SAT EVENING AND AT ITS
APPROX CLOSEST SAME TIME. TS EMILY THEN CURVES NORTHEAST AND OFF
SOUTH CAROLINA SUN NIGHT.

FRI WILL NOT BE THAT BAD AS EMILY WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST CUBA AND
THE GITMO AREA. OVERNIGHT FRI CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO DETEORIATE
AS EMILY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE AREA OF ANDROS ISLAND. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FRI AND THROUGH SAT AS EMILY
TRACKS NORTHWEST TO THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND/BAHAMA BANKS AREA BEFORE
STARTING TO MOVE FROM OFFSHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT SAT.
EAST TO WEST FAST MOVING RAIN SQUALLS WITH GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ASHORE SAT AND SAT EVENING. AGAIN MUCH IS BASED ON
CURRENT TRACK SO CHECK THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS WEBSITE
AT http://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

NWS Key West-

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR EMILY SO MAY
HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE
RECENT MORE RELIABLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC ARE
USUALLY VERY GOOD...THEREFORE WILL SUGGEST THAT EMILY WILL OPEN UP TO
A TROPICAL WAVE LATER THIS MORNING AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTH TODAY. ANTICIPATE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY THIS MORNING FROM THE
HURRICANE CENTER AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AFTER 500 AM.

[xironman]

Maybe a replacement mission? The last plane had avionic issues.

[Dave]

Good morning...got another plane in route now to Emily. AF 305 took off a llittle while ago.

000
URNT15 KNHC 040906
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 01 20110804
085630 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
085700 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
085730 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
085800 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
085830 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
085900 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
085930 1742N 06448W 0129 00007 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090000 1742N 06448W 0130 00007 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090030 1742N 06448W 0130 00007 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090100 1742N 06448W 0130 00009 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090130 1742N 06448W 0129 00009 //// +274 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090200 1742N 06448W 0127 00010 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090230 1742N 06448W 0127 00010 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090300 1742N 06448W 0129 00010 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090330 1742N 06448W 0127 00011 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090400 1742N 06448W 0126 00012 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090430 1742N 06448W 0125 00015 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090500 1742N 06448W 0122 00016 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090530 1742N 06448W 0121 00017 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090600 1742N 06448W 0119 00019 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
$$
;


000
URNT15 KNHC 040916
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 02 20110804
090630 1742N 06449W 0116 00021 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090700 1742N 06449W 0108 00023 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090730 1742N 06449W 0110 00024 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090800 1742N 06449W 0110 00024 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090830 1742N 06449W 0111 00024 //// +274 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090900 1742N 06449W 0110 00024 //// +270 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
090930 1742N 06449W 0106 00024 //// +268 //// 117004 010 /// /// 05
091000 1742N 06448W 0037 00063 //// +266 //// 113016 022 /// /// 05
091030 1742N 06447W 9761 00319 //// +246 //// 115018 018 /// /// 05
091100 1742N 06445W 9345 00715 //// +219 //// 131019 021 /// /// 05
091130 1741N 06444W 8931 01108 //// +198 //// 136022 023 /// /// 05
091200 1740N 06445W 8605 01422 //// +179 //// 126022 024 /// /// 05
091230 1740N 06447W 8228 01805 //// +159 //// 121020 021 /// /// 05
091300 1739N 06449W 7907 02147 //// +148 //// 117020 021 /// /// 05
091330 1739N 06451W 7600 02481 //// +132 //// 124021 021 /// /// 05
091400 1739N 06453W 7322 02796 //// +115 //// 123022 023 /// /// 05
091430 1739N 06455W 7073 03085 //// +099 //// 125023 024 /// /// 05
091500 1738N 06457W 6809 03399 //// +079 //// 122022 023 /// /// 05
091530 1738N 06459W 6546 03722 //// +061 //// 121019 019 /// /// 05
091600 1738N 06500W 6305 04031 //// +034 //// 127019 020 /// /// 05
$$
;


000
URNT15 KNHC 040926
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 03 20110804
091630 1737N 06502W 6103 04296 //// +023 //// 129022 023 /// /// 05
091700 1737N 06504W 5931 04519 //// +009 //// 133021 023 /// /// 05
091730 1737N 06506W 5719 04813 //// -012 //// 145020 020 /// /// 05
091800 1736N 06508W 5557 05040 //// -028 //// 152019 020 /// /// 05
091830 1736N 06510W 5402 05265 0266 -040 //// 155021 023 /// /// 05
091900 1736N 06512W 5228 05522 0279 -046 //// 169021 022 /// /// 05
091930 1735N 06514W 5063 05775 0294 -055 //// 176021 021 /// /// 05
092000 1735N 06516W 4924 05996 0309 -071 //// 182020 020 /// /// 05
092030 1735N 06518W 4809 06179 0320 -086 //// 191021 021 /// /// 05
092100 1734N 06520W 4693 06367 0330 -097 //// 195019 019 /// /// 05
092130 1734N 06522W 4584 06550 0342 -110 //// 194018 018 /// /// 05
092200 1734N 06523W 4500 06690 0349 -121 //// 187018 018 /// /// 05
092230 1733N 06525W 4394 06876 0359 -130 //// 191019 019 /// /// 05
092300 1733N 06527W 4310 07024 0371 -141 //// 187018 020 /// /// 05
092330 1733N 06529W 4252 07127 0377 -141 //// 181017 017 /// /// 05
092400 1732N 06531W 4164 07283 0384 -142 //// 195016 017 /// /// 05
092430 1732N 06533W 4078 07443 0395 -155 //// 198015 016 /// /// 05
092500 1732N 06535W 4022 07546 0401 -166 //// 205014 015 /// /// 05
092530 1731N 06537W 3964 07656 0406 -171 //// 210014 018 /// /// 05
092600 1731N 06539W 3900 07775 0413 -173 //// 203020 021 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Dave]

[jlauderdal]

Still not even a tropical storm watch for Jamaica? Very irresponsible in my opinion.

Here are their definitions so clearly they dont think the criteria is going to be met. Complacency a huge issue generated by too many watches/warnings..besides its a mid rang tropical storm that's disorganized, anyone really think they will be caught off guard..folks in the Caribbean are pros at this stuff and know what to do, they handle tropical situations better than the USA.



Tropical Storm Watch : Indicates that Tropical Storm conditions pose a possible threat within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Warning : Indicates that Tropical Storm conditions, including possible sustained wind speeds of 34-63 knots or 63-117 km/h, are expected within 24 hours or less.

[Dave]

I don't believe this...running late on hdob 4 now...waiting...

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 040712
97779 07040 50165 68800 73200 99005 66//2 /5757
RMK AF309 1005A EMILY OB 07
SWS = 26 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

didn't only 1/2 of the G VI data get into the models? maybe we'll see something else out of them all soon.

[jhpigott]

Any guesses as to what we may see with the 06Z models. Back west or continuing trending east?

[jlauderdal]

Any guesses as to what we may see with the 06Z models. Back west or continuing trending east?

east

[Dave]

They've restarted with hdob #8:

000
URNT15 KNHC 041030
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 08 20110804
100630 1637N 06918W 3591 08415 0478 -198 //// 165010 011 /// /// 05
100700 1636N 06920W 3598 08363 0458 -196 //// 188012 013 /// /// 05
100730 1636N 06922W 3600 08363 0442 -194 //// 200008 009 /// /// 05
100800 1635N 06924W 3638 08299 0448 -190 //// 216010 011 /// /// 05
100830 1635N 06926W 3747 08075 0435 -177 //// 222007 008 /// /// 05
100900 1634N 06928W 3858 07858 0420 -163 //// 234005 005 /// /// 05
100930 1634N 06930W 3959 07662 0408 -151 //// 216008 010 /// /// 05
101000 1633N 06932W 4059 07478 0395 -140 //// 213011 012 /// /// 05
101030 1633N 06934W 4174 07263 0381 -127 //// 214013 013 /// /// 05
101100 1632N 06936W 4296 07048 0369 -116 //// 208012 012 /// /// 05
101130 1632N 06938W 4432 06798 0346 -103 //// 195012 013 /// /// 05
101200 1631N 06940W 4558 06586 0335 -093 //// 188016 019 /// /// 05
101230 1631N 06942W 4694 06359 0323 -086 //// 178022 024 /// /// 05
101300 1630N 06943W 4806 06175 0311 -081 //// 179030 032 /// /// 05
101330 1630N 06945W 4941 05956 0298 -073 //// 183034 037 025 005 05
101400 1629N 06947W 5053 05781 0287 -067 -188 196038 041 027 004 03
101430 1629N 06949W 5175 05594 0277 -058 -090 203038 039 027 005 00
101500 1629N 06950W 5286 05427 0265 -050 -085 205040 043 024 005 00
101530 1628N 06952W 5360 05311 0256 -046 -080 199043 044 026 004 03
101600 1628N 06953W 5439 05199 0252 -043 -075 200041 042 026 004 00
$$
;

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hmm, I must be the first one awake this morning checking in on Emily. No posts in a while.

[Dave]

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

thanks for posting Dave.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041026
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 09 20110804
101630 1627N 06955W 5527 05071 0124 -037 -070 197041 042 026 003 00
101700 1627N 06956W 5612 04949 0130 -032 -066 196043 044 026 004 03
101730 1626N 06958W 5740 04773 0134 -022 -062 193044 045 028 004 00
101800 1626N 07000W 5868 04598 0135 -010 -058 192044 046 028 004 00
101830 1626N 07002W 5997 04420 0143 -003 -054 183038 043 026 004 03
101900 1625N 07003W 6134 04245 0143 +011 -049 178036 037 025 004 00
101930 1625N 07005W 6262 04083 0140 +026 -044 178033 035 030 003 03
102000 1624N 07007W 6393 03913 0136 +036 -039 181030 032 027 003 00
102030 1624N 07009W 6529 03739 0139 +046 -034 187031 032 027 003 03
102100 1623N 07011W 6665 03571 0132 +060 -028 187032 032 028 004 03
102130 1623N 07012W 6807 03401 0139 +069 -023 186030 031 028 004 00
102200 1622N 07014W 6956 03221 0135 +083 -015 188029 030 027 004 03
102230 1622N 07016W 7118 03034 0142 +092 -007 177027 030 028 003 03
102300 1621N 07017W 7325 02790 0140 +102 +002 172026 027 026 003 00
102330 1621N 07019W 7532 02555 0140 +114 +011 171025 026 027 003 00
102400 1621N 07021W 7739 02327 0138 +131 +021 165027 028 027 003 00
102430 1620N 07023W 7931 02117 0132 +146 +030 161030 031 026 004 00
102500 1620N 07024W 8099 01938 0130 +156 +040 163031 032 027 004 03
102530 1619N 07026W 8259 01770 0129 +165 +050 163032 033 027 004 03
102600 1619N 07028W 8398 01628 0129 +171 +060 161031 031 026 005 00
$$
;