ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041036
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 10 20110804
102630 1618N 07029W 8429 01592 0125 +172 +069 163030 032 027 004 03
102700 1618N 07031W 8423 01597 0125 +168 +077 157029 031 027 003 00
102730 1618N 07033W 8433 01583 0119 +174 +085 157031 031 027 004 03
102800 1617N 07034W 8431 01585 0117 +173 +090 154032 032 025 006 03
102830 1617N 07036W 8429 01584 0113 +175 +095 152031 031 027 005 00
102900 1616N 07038W 8434 01579 0115 +173 +100 149032 033 021 006 03
102930 1618N 07039W 8425 01591 0120 +167 +104 151033 033 027 005 03
103000 1619N 07041W 8432 01583 0120 +165 +107 156033 034 029 004 00
103030 1620N 07042W 8429 01583 0115 +170 +109 157035 036 029 005 03
103100 1621N 07044W 8431 01580 0115 +165 +111 155036 037 029 006 03
103130 1622N 07045W 8431 01578 0110 +169 +112 153037 037 029 006 03
103200 1623N 07047W 8429 01577 0108 +168 +112 152036 037 031 005 03
103230 1625N 07048W 8430 01575 0109 +165 +113 153035 035 029 006 00
103300 1627N 07049W 8429 01578 0109 +166 +113 154035 036 030 005 00
103330 1628N 07051W 8428 01578 0110 +165 +113 153034 035 030 005 00
103400 1629N 07052W 8427 01581 0114 +161 +113 154035 036 029 006 00
103430 1631N 07053W 8432 01575 0115 +159 +112 156036 036 031 006 03
103500 1632N 07055W 8429 01578 0112 +165 +111 157038 039 031 006 00
103530 1634N 07056W 8428 01581 0116 +161 +111 159039 039 031 006 03
103600 1635N 07057W 8433 01578 0121 +156 +112 161037 037 031 006 03
$$
;

[Bluefrog]

I think everyone is just plain exhausted from Emily ..... they finally had to go to bed this morning ....

[GCANE]

Core has rebounded nicely with a max anomaly of 2C in about the right position in the troposphere for further intensification.

There may have been a small, short-term compression that has moderated cloud top heights and rain-rate.

But, this is most likely temporary.

Emily should continue to ramp up.

IMHO, it is about 50/50 on forecast track: either west to between Jamaica and Cuba or thru the Windward passage.

[Dave]

thanks for posting Dave.

Your welcome TreasureIslandFLGal!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

at what point does missing the trough become evident and the models abandon that? not saying that is absolutely the case, but I still suspect it.
since Emily is still low level steering led, and "hiding" in a position behind Hispanola's mountains, could it be possible that her low level circulation doesn't actually feel the weakness? Maybe a bit protected by that mountainous wall?
It seems that if she doesn't turn abruptly today, she'll miss the connection altogether.

[Dave]

[GCANE]

She is now filling in convection on her west quad and ADT is noticing.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt05L.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 040245.jpg

[artist]

Dave I can take over obs for awhile when you need to leave and good morning!

[Dean4Storms]

I'm starting wonder if the mountains of Hispaniola are not only interrupting the inflow to Emily but is it also interrupting the Storm from feeling the weakness in the ridge. If maybe the sinking of air down the mountains toward the inflow are not also giving it a slightly tighter pressure gradient on its northern periphery. Just enough to not feel the weakness.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I posted similar in the Models thread, but is it possible that since Emily is a low level storm still since she is weak, that she is somewhat sheltered from feeling the weakness to her north because of Hispanola's mountains? Maybe caught in a little eddy of sorts, which would help explain her lack of considerable movement in any direction over the last few hours?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

haha Dean, I just posted something like that a few minutes ago in the other thread too!

[floridasun78]

here one lastest plane report i seen
Time:
10:33:30Z
Coordinates:
16.4667N 70.85W
Acft. Static Air Press:
842.8 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
1,578 meters (~ 5,177 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
1011.0 mb (~ 29.85 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 153° at 34 knots (From the SSE at ~ 39.1 mph)
Air Temp:
16.5°C (~ 61.7°F)
Dew Pt:
11.3°C (~ 52.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
30 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

[GCANE]

I'm starting wonder if the mountains of Hispaniola are not only interrupting the inflow to Emily but is it also interrupting the Storm from feeling the weakness in the ridge. If maybe the sinking of air down the mountains toward the inflow are not also giving it a slightly tighter pressure gradient on its northern periphery. Just enough to not feel the weakness.

Interesting thoughts. I wonder if there is any climo statistics on it; i.e. other TC's when they got in this area?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041046
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 11 20110804
103630 1637N 07059W 8435 01574 0121 +152 +113 160040 040 031 008 03
103700 1638N 07100W 8427 01579 0118 +153 +113 165038 039 033 008 03
103730 1639N 07101W 8424 01584 0124 +145 +114 170037 038 036 012 00
103800 1641N 07103W 8429 01577 0125 +142 +113 177038 041 040 014 03
103830 1642N 07104W 8424 01585 0130 +138 +112 178040 041 039 018 00
103900 1643N 07105W 8452 01557 0135 +130 +110 189037 038 043 016 03
103930 1644N 07107W 8425 01579 0128 +134 +108 187037 038 039 015 00
104000 1646N 07108W 8430 01573 0118 +149 +106 165034 035 038 012 00
104030 1647N 07109W 8423 01581 0117 +152 +105 160035 036 038 010 00
104100 1648N 07111W 8429 01574 0130 +131 +105 163034 035 038 020 00
104130 1650N 07112W 8427 01579 0123 +142 +105 179036 038 043 013 03
104200 1651N 07113W 8426 01578 0113 +157 +105 185036 037 041 005 03
104230 1652N 07115W 8430 01569 0114 +152 +106 189036 037 041 005 03
104300 1653N 07116W 8434 01569 0114 +151 +107 189035 036 039 006 00
104330 1655N 07117W 8433 01568 0109 +159 +109 188032 033 039 006 00
104400 1656N 07118W 8432 01568 0107 +161 +112 189031 032 041 005 03
104430 1657N 07120W 8427 01573 0105 +162 +115 187031 032 040 005 00
104500 1659N 07121W 8431 01568 0103 +162 +117 181033 034 041 005 00
104530 1700N 07122W 8429 01569 0101 +165 +119 178034 034 042 005 03
104600 1701N 07124W 8429 01567 0097 +168 +120 172035 035 043 005 00
$$
;

[floridasun78]

it look their still not at center

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

this is still pretty weak, and definitely still being steered by lower level influences.

[Dave]

Dave I can take over obs for awhile when you need to leave and good morning!

Go ahead Artist, I do need to leave for work. Be back around noon to 2 pm. Thanks!

[GCANE]

Outflow - speaks for itself:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Dave]

it look their still not at center

AF305's is on the center pass now....SE to NW leg.

Ok Artist...all yours...everyone, Artist's a little new at this but has worked with me last year.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If it is true that she is sheltered and maybe a little stuck in her present location, that would seem to me that she'll miss that connection after all. If/when she feels it, she'll end up getting pulled around the mountains and head towards the northeast, if the weakness gets that far to the east...which I don't believe will happen. I suspect it will simply lift out, leaving her behind to the influence of the lower level sterring currents until she builds up enough strength to be influenced by higher level currents.
-and continues westward once that eddy is disrupted.

IMO -see S2k disclaimer!