ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[GCANE]

Maybe a dark-pink donut on 37GHz?

Nice curve on 85GHz.

[SouthFLTropics]

5am Disco:

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

11pm Wednesday Disco:

IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.

5pm Wednesday Disco:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

Keep waiting for this northward motion, when is it to late for the SE CONUS?

That's funny. Next one might say "THANK GOD IT'S TURNING!"

I think all of us would like to know what the definition of "SOON" is!

SFT

[Gustywind]

Is that dark spot near 16.2 N and 71.5 W the center?

Interresting, eye feature attempt given my untrained... eyes?

[GCANE]

Is that dark spot near 16.2 N and 71.5 W the center?

Its the hot-tower.

[NDG]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It doesn't look like Emily is moving much, looks likes she is just sitting there trying to have consolidation. If she is not further north by this afternoon at the 5 PM EDT advisory, I think the cone will have to shift left and Jamaica should get TS watches or warnings by that time.

She has moved approximately 40 miles between the last two recon fixes at 1:40 AM AST & 6:58 AM AST.
Not a lot of movement but still moving like I said in the post above, on a 280 deg heading.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Image of all vortex messages as of 8/4 at 11Z:

[hurricanefloyd5]

Am I in the right to say it's still moving westward?

[Blown Away]

Is VDM S of 5am position?

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041136
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 16 20110804
112630 1704N 07231W 8430 01564 0090 +175 +127 017008 008 027 009 00
112700 1704N 07229W 8429 01567 0091 +175 +128 027008 008 027 008 03
112730 1704N 07228W 8430 01566 0091 +174 +128 032007 008 026 007 00
112800 1704N 07226W 8429 01566 0089 +177 +129 029006 007 025 007 00
112830 1704N 07224W 8430 01564 0085 +183 +130 011006 006 020 007 00
112900 1704N 07223W 8431 01564 0082 +188 +132 000008 008 022 006 03
112930 1704N 07221W 8429 01567 0075 +198 +133 342006 007 017 005 03
113000 1704N 07219W 8432 01564 0074 +201 +136 321007 007 019 003 00
113030 1704N 07217W 8428 01567 0072 +205 +140 295008 009 021 003 03
113100 1704N 07216W 8425 01567 0068 +205 +143 296011 012 020 004 03
113130 1704N 07214W 8432 01560 0066 +207 +147 291011 012 023 002 00
113200 1704N 07212W 8429 01562 0067 +205 +151 281014 015 020 004 03
113230 1704N 07210W 8432 01558 0063 +206 +155 292012 013 021 004 00
113300 1704N 07208W 8430 01556 0068 +191 +158 303011 012 020 005 00
113330 1704N 07206W 8430 01556 0060 +204 +160 331017 019 018 005 00
113400 1704N 07205W 8429 01553 0059 +200 +160 329019 020 021 005 03
113430 1704N 07203W 8425 01555 0058 +194 +161 317019 020 020 005 00
113500 1704N 07201W 8430 01547 0055 +194 +161 308017 018 020 006 03
113530 1705N 07159W 8424 01545 0048 +192 +161 313018 021 022 004 03
113600 1705N 07158W 8432 01534 0035 +206 +161 320024 026 020 004 03
$$

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...EMILY MEANDERING JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 71.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 17.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST. EMILY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME
EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[NDG]

Am I in the right to say it's still moving westward?

Yes.
Lets see what officialy comes out from the NHC on the next advisory.

[Blown Away]

Am I in the right to say it's still moving westward?

I'm hearing "Stalled" at 8am update.

[cycloneye]

8 AM Advisory=PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY

[mutley]

Am I in the right to say it's still moving westward?

I'm hearing "Stalled" at 8am update.

Maybe the "Stalled" is indicative of a turn beginning "SOON".

[tolakram]

Stalled, well I guess that's the best we can expect from Emily. MIMIC-TPW shows the NW motion starting yesterday, but now clearly shows the stall. Water vapor images show the environment around Emily getting better. This is a disaster for Haiti, they cannot handle this much rain.

[wzrgirl1]

What implications will the stall have?

[artist]

Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 041119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 04/10:58:00Z
B. 17 deg 04 min N
071 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1463 m
D. 44 kt
E. 079 deg 17 nm
F. 156 deg 52 kt
G. 053 deg 14 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 17 C / 1498 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1105A EMILY OB 02
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SE QUAD 10:50:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 007 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Evil Jeremy]

Am I in the right to say it's still moving westward?

I'm hearing "Stalled" at 8am update.

Maybe the "Stalled" is indicative of a turn beginning "SOON".

Normally this would be the thinking, but Emily has already stalled twice without turning.

[hurricanefloyd5]

man Emily can drive a crazy man nuts

[artist]

that's what I was thinking earlier. I also noticed from the advisory they didn't mention possibly moving the cone west this time.