ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[floridasun78]

ty rl3ao

[Weatherboy1]

I think South Florida TS Watches go up at 5 p.m. unless motion starts really turning NW and midday models show a further shift E (Vs. W, which is what they just did). Problem with this system is the "Charlie dilemma." In other words, Emily isn't coming at a 90 degree angle at Florida. With that kind of system, you can narrow down a cone of vulnerability pretty easily. Here, a small difference of 10-20 miles in terms of where the turn begins could mean the difference between no landfall in FL and a raking of the entire coast. It's all about the 'angle of attack'. With Charlie in 2004, if you recall, the Tampa area was supposed to be the target. But a very small change in the angle of attack meant the storm hit the coast 60-70 miles further south.

[KWT]

Well at least we haven't got long to wait till the next round of recon...

If nothing else this storm is fulfulling the need for recon!

[viberama]

Hasn't the BAMS model been pretty much 100% correct up to this point? I like where that model is taking Emily and it surely seems like a pass up the western florida coast and then over the central Florida pennisula and out to sea is plausible.

[Bocadude85]

Yep I think watches for S.Florida may have a little to wait yet, though once the system finally gets moving watches won't be far behind.

Agree....I don't expect watches until tomorrow morning unless she decides to finally speed up between now and 5pm...IMO

We will have to wait and see if NHC slows down the track because the current NHC track has Emily approaching Andros Island tomorrow night at 2am.. since watches are issued 48 prior I would think if they are going to issue a watch it would have to be sometime today.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think South Florida TS Watches go up at 5 p.m. unless motion starts really turning NW and midday models show a further shift E (Vs. W, which is what they just did). Problem with this system is the "Charlie dilemma." In other words, Emily isn't coming at a 90 degree angle at Florida. With that kind of system, you can narrow down a cone of vulnerability pretty easily. Here, a small difference of 10-20 miles in terms of where the turn begins could mean the difference between no landfall in FL and a raking of the entire coast. It's all about the 'angle of attack'. With Charlie in 2004, if you recall, the Tampa area was supposed to be the target. But a very small change in the angle of attack meant the storm hit the coast 60-70 miles further south.

Which was sad for Punta Gorda, but VERY lucky for Tampa Bay. Here on the beach, very few people evacuated, despite being right on the barrier island living in homes without stilts. Amazingly, many folks we saw later downtown weren't even aware a storm was supposed to come here! Lots of the old folks don't watch much tv I guess.

[KWT]

Abit of convective weakening now probably due to the downwind effects of the mountions...

Sorta also reminds me alittle bit of Hanna 2008 in terms of the way it defied the forecasts constantly.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hasn't the BAMS model been pretty much 100% correct up to this point? I like where that model is taking Emily and it surely seems like a pass up the western florida coast and then over the central Florida pennisula and out to sea is plausible.

Unfortunatley, they have been very good so far with Emily. However, I sure hope they aren't going forward, especially the ones that bring the storm over me after slowly moving through the gulf. The temps are over 90 degrees in the bathtub right now. I haven't looked at shear maps for the next 4 days, but still, I don't like that idea at all!!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Good 'ole Fay was a little nightmare to figure out too.

[cycloneye]

Abit of convective weakening now probably due to the downwind effects of the mountions...

Sorta also reminds me alittle bit of Hanna 2008 in terms of the way it defied the forecasts constantly.

Hanna moved slowly and erraticly.

Code: Select all

  4  21.10  -60.60 08/29/03Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
  5  21.70  -62.30 08/29/09Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
  6  21.30  -62.70 08/29/15Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
  7  21.80  -63.80 08/29/21Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
  8  22.10  -65.30 08/30/03Z   45  1002 TROPICAL STORM
  9  21.90  -66.30 08/30/09Z   45  1001 TROPICAL STORM
 10  21.90  -66.40 08/30/15Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
10A  22.20  -67.00 08/30/18Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
 11  22.40  -67.20 08/30/21Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
11A  22.80  -67.30 08/31/00Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
 12  22.90  -67.80 08/31/03Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
12A  23.00  -68.10 08/31/06Z   45   999 TROPICAL STORM
 13  23.20  -69.00 08/31/09Z   50   999 TROPICAL STORM
13A  23.20  -69.50 08/31/12Z   50   999 TROPICAL STORM
 14  23.30  -70.00 08/31/15Z   45   999 TROPICAL STORM
14A  23.50  -71.10 08/31/18Z   40   997 TROPICAL STORM
 15  23.50  -71.40 08/31/21Z   40   997 TROPICAL STORM
15A  23.50  -71.60 09/01/00Z   40   997 TROPICAL STORM
 16  23.70  -72.20 09/01/03Z   45   997 TROPICAL STORM
16A  23.70  -72.20 09/01/06Z   45   997 TROPICAL STORM
 17  23.60  -72.40 09/01/09Z   45   996 TROPICAL STORM
17A  23.60  -72.40 09/01/12Z   45   996 TROPICAL STORM
 18  23.00  -72.90 09/01/15Z   50   994 TROPICAL STORM


[ConvergenceZone]

The track offshore seems more likely than yesterday, but hopefully Florida can still get some nice rains out of it, but hopefully no flooding rains.


I"m just glad we are dealing with a weak tropical storm and not a strong hurricane.
With a weak one, it's not a big deal if all of the sudden the storm changed direction and headed for Florida.

[sphelps8681]

I think the bams were pretty much spot on with Don as well. Please correct me if I am wrong. But that is what I am remembering.

[dixiebreeze]

I don't understand exactly why Emily is going to recurve out to sea. Can someone tell me why?

There is going to be a trough that digs down and creates a weakness that Emily is going to follow and get pulled out to sea.

I think faith in the trough may be a bit overdone.

[Jevo]

Hasn't the BAMS model been pretty much 100% correct up to this point? I like where that model is taking Emily and it surely seems like a pass up the western florida coast and then over the central Florida pennisula and out to sea is plausible.

Plausible; certainly.. Probable is less likely. The consensus after the G-IV Dropsonde data was included pretty much put all of the NHCs forecast models in line. A slight variation here or there is possible, however the thinking over at the NHC is that Emmy is going to be paying a visit to our friends over in the Bahamas.

Disclaimer: 99.% of the time I have absolutely no clue of what I am talking about and I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because I have a dictionary and thesaurus on my desk.. For all official information please kindly direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.

[artist]

The track offshore seems more likely than yesterday, but hopefully Florida can still get some nice rains out of it, but hopefully no flooding rains.


I"m just glad we are dealing with a weak tropical storm and not a strong hurricane.
With a weak one, it's not a big deal if all of the sudden the storm changed direction and headed for Florida.

except we don't know what effect the Gulf Stream might have on her.

[KBBOCA]

I'm assuming the small open area right at the coast of Hispaniola is NOT an eye or "eye-like feature", but just due to dry air?

[Bocadude85]

Convection is weakening.. perhaps some shear? and I am sure interaction with land is not helping.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[JPmia]

This will be a good sat loop to use if anyone is interested:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...EMILY NUDGING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...DRENCHING HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 72.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY
AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND 2 TO 4 FEET WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CENTER. TODAY THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION WITH
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...A POSSIBLE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EARLIER THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS AND THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS STEADY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE COMPLEX THAN USUAL. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA AND THAT IMPLIES WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL
MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE...AND OBVIOUSLY THESE MODELS
CAN DETECT AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT APPARENT TO ME.
THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST INTENSIFICATION WITH SUCH
INDICATIONS FROM THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHIPS
AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THIS HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY...OR PERHAPS FOR A SLIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BY HAITI AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE EMILY REACHES THE AREA OF
THE BAHAMAS.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.
IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST EMILY WILL REACH BEFORE RECURVATURE...
PRIMARILY GIVEN THAT GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF EMILY WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND GIVEN THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND RADII ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.3N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 18.6N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 23.0N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 29.0N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 32.5N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Evil Jeremy]

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.