ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jonj2040]

I can take the google images

[RL3AO]

Yep, abit of a longer flight now given the estimated center, are they likely to shift the plane anywhere closer as it gets further away or not?

Once it gets closer to Mississippi they'll start taking off from there.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

suspect many of the models to shift to the west now then,since many use the GFS as their background. Even though the bamms due to a point to, they've been doing their own thing anyway and bucking the "better models".

[Bocadude85]

Hmm perhaps the globals are right in opening her up into a wave...

[KWT]

gotta be honest I'm sturggling to see much in the way of a circulation throuigh the decaying convection, may need abit more decaying before it becomes more obvious I suppose...

[micktooth]

Another day, another weakening cycle, however, this time Emily is interacting closely with Hispaniola, do any of you thinks this might finally be the "end" for Emily? She is not looking too healthy at all right now.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

How would she get "caught under the ridging"? The steering currents around the current ridge she is following would lead her to follow its periphery, which requires her to follow it west and then to the nw and n and finally ne. The 2 ridges don't connect and she wouldn't simply be "passed on" to the other ridge to follow, especially if she is strengthening and drawn naturally more poleward. Its when a storm is drifting around and not already following a ridge that it can get caught by another ridge's steering flow if I understand it correctly. All that said....there is a possibility what you said can happen if Emily gets left behind during her slow movement/stall and the ridge she has been following regresses to the east or northeast quickly, leaving her behind to wander until she can find another steering pattern to be swept into.

Ah yes, but the steering currents are dynamic! The ridge is building back in as the trough moves away (actually its the same ridge thats pushing the trough away along its NW periphery, HP moves LP areas, not the other way, and LP erodes HP areas)

So as the ridge EXPANDS to the west, the storm "could" be caught under the ridge, and a fairly weak bridge could happen with the death ridge in the SE USA.

Here is the GFS at 12 hours.
Note specifically the isobar labeled 1020 and the one just west. That is the western periphery of the HP primarily responsible for current movement. (see the trough east of Massachusetts, labeled 1008? it extends down to roughly the carolinas and georgia).

Here is the GFS at 24 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024s.gif
Note the same isobar has moved west? Note the trough has lifted out of the carolinas.

This is a delicate dance, and these are only "predictions" by a model, but if that HP were to move much further west at 24 hours than she would continue to move WNW. Remember, HP moves LP, and LP only erodes HP. A storm cannot move directly into a high pressure area.

agree with your theories, however, you are using the GFS to show the ridge future, while the GFS hasn't been batting so well with this setup yet. Maybe shoudl use anothe rmodel, and they are not in agreement with teh far west movement of the ridge to the point it meets the conus ridge. though some do as well.

[KWT]

Models really have backed off from this system haven't they...

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041620
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 03 20110804
161030 1729N 06550W 4001 07620 0437 -167 //// 219012 013 /// /// 05
161100 1728N 06552W 3951 07711 0441 -175 //// 221013 014 /// /// 05
161130 1728N 06554W 3926 07757 0442 -180 //// 216014 014 /// /// 05
161200 1727N 06557W 3923 07760 0440 -180 -188 218012 013 /// /// 03
161230 1727N 06559W 3925 07758 0439 -180 -202 217012 012 /// /// 03
161300 1726N 06601W 3925 07758 0438 -180 -217 214013 013 /// /// 03
161330 1725N 06604W 3925 07760 0436 -180 -229 218013 014 /// /// 03
161400 1725N 06606W 3926 07750 0436 -180 -234 219013 013 /// /// 03
161430 1724N 06609W 3927 07747 0437 -180 -237 218013 013 /// /// 03
161500 1724N 06611W 3926 07754 0437 -180 -238 214012 012 /// /// 03
161530 1723N 06613W 3926 07751 0436 -180 -244 211012 012 /// /// 03
161600 1722N 06616W 3926 07752 0436 -177 -244 215011 011 /// /// 03
161630 1722N 06618W 3927 07746 0435 -175 -240 213011 012 /// /// 03
161700 1721N 06621W 3925 07755 0436 -175 -224 213011 012 /// /// 03
161730 1720N 06623W 3927 07746 0436 -175 -224 213011 011 /// /// 03
161800 1720N 06626W 3927 07751 0436 -176 -224 210013 014 /// /// 03
161830 1719N 06628W 3925 07749 0436 -180 -239 208015 016 /// /// 03
161900 1718N 06631W 3927 07747 0436 -180 -319 210016 017 /// /// 03
161930 1718N 06633W 3925 07750 0435 -180 -278 210015 016 /// /// 03
162000 1717N 06636W 3929 07745 0435 -180 -282 211017 017 /// /// 03
$$

[ozonepete]

Looking at the RGB loops, I think I see an elongated LLC around 17.5N 72.6W shooting rapidly NW towards the western Haitian peninsula.

[KWT]

Most important thing is will they even find a closed circulation anymore...not totally convinced they will looking at the images...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

if she moves over Haiti, after she loses her mid level convection, the heights may completely dirupt her low level spin, and their wouldn't be enough of a midlevel to help spin it back up again after exiting the island.
she's gotta keep a partial rotation at at least one of the 2 levels or she'll be done IMO.

let's first see if she is actually intending to cross the island though or just taking a little jog to psyche us all out (again)

[KWT]

Looking at the RGB loops, I think I see an elongated LLC around 17.5N 72.6W shooting rapidly NW towards the western Haitian peninsula.

I think that position may well be close to the mark...not convinced its got a NW mtoion yet though, its a little hard to tell given what mess it is in. I'm gonna waiting for recon with ragrds to that!

[wjs3]

Looking at the RGB loops, I think I see an elongated LLC around 17.5N 72.6W shooting rapidly NW towards the western Haitian peninsula.

I agree with that analysis. Few more frames and we'll know more. Real mess right now.

[tolakram]

I think those are just some boundaries from the collapsing convection. Based on the visible I think the center is near:



Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

maybe she needed to lose her hat so that she could get moving again. maybe that mid level part of her was the part actually caught in weak steering and she was having a hard time decoupling this last time since she did have a pretty healthy structure overnight. once the higher tops started breaking down, that allowed her to break free and move again ???
I hope the professors at all the MET schools are recording this one!! what a great learning tool!

[GrimReaper]

Long time reader first post.

As for those surprised with no watches for SFL yet. Too much on the line in tourist dollars. Too many questions with this storm. Wrong forecast will scare general tourist away. = Less sales tax $$$.

Yeah...The last thing we want here in FLA is a premature evacuation!

SFT

OMG that's the funniest thing I've seen!!!!!!

Not so funny though when they thought hurricane Floyd was going to hit Florida! Sat in traffic for 8 hours to go 4 miles with 10 horses on board.

NO more premature evacuations for me!!

[AdamFirst]

Once Emily is freed from Hispaniola...then the real fun starts.

[Bocadude85]

I think those are just some boundaries from the collapsing convection. Based on the visible I think the center is near:

http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/6279/ztemp.png

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

I agree I can see some low level turning there