WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[artist]

My Mac is telling me it's going to take 2 hours to process my 5 minute movie so I guess I'm going to sit up, have some pizza and wait for that to finish. We usually keep power off base so fingers crossed we will still have it in the a.m. Yeah, it's been getting progressively nastier as the night goes on. Don't know how I'm going to sleep in this!

a friend of mine uses ear plugs to sleep through hurricanes here in Florida. Good luck to you all.

[RobWESTPACWX]

HURAKAN, thanks for posting that image, my mouth dropped and a few choice words came out.

[Chacor]

1300 UTC (10 pm JST) JMA update: 170 km SSE of Naha.

Considering at 1100 UTC it was 180 km SSE of Naha, it's moving... really slowly. 5 km/h.

[Chacor]

IR from 1330 UTC. Dry slot evident in SW quad and ragged eye.

[KWT]

Big ole eye there!

A big ragged as well thats for sure...but its really going to be a long lasting storm for those that are in there...

[Chacor]

Almost no movement right now, JMA holding at about 170 km SSE of Naha at 14z.

[rdhdstpchld]

This feels stronger than Songda - but that was middle of the night too, so I may be remembering wrong...LOL. Also, I was in a different house for that. Heading to bed now -tried to get some video out the front door....but it's pretty dark. Dog went out and apparently tried to empty himself COMPLETELY as if to say "not going back out for a while, so better get it all out now!!" -- wow, as I type this, the house just shook -- cement house...creepy

ETA: - toilet water has dropped in the bowl...LOL

[Chacor]

JTWC 1500 discussion:

TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY
SHOWS THE EYE HAS FILLED BUT MAINTAINS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 041126Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE IR IMAGERY, A RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN, AND THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 80 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 11W
MAINTAINS GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO
THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TY 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER,
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE YELLOW SEA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
AND BEGIN TO ALLOW TY 11W TO SLOWLY TURN MORE POLEWARD. WITH
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW
INTO THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.
BY TAU 72, TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH
LAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CHINA, EVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TAU 96. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND ECMWF AS THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS AND EGRR AS THE WESTERN OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR EGRR.

[Infdidoll]

Now we're starting to get some Songda-sized gusts. Songda just didn't last as long as this typhoon will. I was just about ready to go to bed when BOTH of my kids came running out of their room scared to death. This is going to be a long night.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 25.0N 128.4E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 26.1N 126.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 061200UTC 27.9N 123.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 071200UTC 30.8N 120.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[Infdidoll]

Finally got the better video uploaded where I actually used a tripod and wasn't shaking the camera all over:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fb__AkoAeFE

And that wasn't even near what it's doing now. Be interesting to compare same shots tomorrow and note the damage!

[KWT]

Now we're starting to get some Songda-sized gusts. Songda just didn't last as long as this typhoon will. I was just about ready to go to bed when BOTH of my kids came running out of their room scared to death. This is going to be a long night.

Yeah, it may not pack the high intense winds that were once feared but the system is now so broad in terms of max winds that its going to take a long time for the high winds to pass.

Stay safe people!

[angelisagemini]

I have no idea how my family is sleeping through this. I don't remember Songda being this loud or hearing so many things hit our building. Feeling very happy to have an interior room to hang out in.

[Chacor]

Kadena just reported 64 mph sustained winds with an 81 mph gust; pressure 977.4 mbar at 1:18 local.

[KWT]

Chacor, good ob mate, so they are getting hurricane force gusts from this system...

[Chacor]

Sure are, peak gust I've seen from JMA is 41.5 m/s or 81 kt!

[hypercane]

When are the strongest winds meant to come? Looks really bad at the moment.

[Chacor]

Strongest winds are due during daylight tomorrow late morning or early afternoon local time, if I recall correctly.

[hypercane]

Strongest winds are due during daylight tomorrow late morning or early afternoon local time, if I recall correctly.

Thanks! Stay safe Infdidoll and others!

[artist]

Finally got the better video uploaded where I actually used a tripod and wasn't shaking the camera all over:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fb__AkoAeFE

And that wasn't even near what it's doing now. Be interesting to compare same shots tomorrow and note the damage!

great video, thanks for sharing.