ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFLTropics]

At the very least, Emily is no longer a TS based on recon obs. Next report from the plane should have something other than SE-SSE winds if Emily does still have a weak LLC. This is certainly the weakest Emily has been for days (since before it was upgraded). Whatever is left would track generally WNW-NW across Haiti/eastern Cuba and could have some potential to regenerate. But it won't remember that it was once a TS, so it would have no greater chance of regeneration than a typical tropical wave moving into the region.

Wow, that sounds so moving and sad. Emily might not "remember" but we will have over 200 pages of posts to remember her by, and we will tell her amazing story of her persistence for years to come. Quite a remarkable and crazy storm!

Wow...What a fighter! She will go down in S2K history for sure. Won't make the Hall of Fame but will definitely be remembered!

SFT

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 041850
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 18 20110804
184030 1754N 07416W 9590 00442 0088 +234 +110 105017 017 023 000 03
184100 1754N 07415W 9597 00437 0089 +233 +110 100017 018 022 000 03
184130 1754N 07413W 9594 00439 0090 +228 +110 097018 019 023 000 00
184200 1754N 07412W 9589 00444 0090 +227 +109 095017 018 022 000 00
184230 1754N 07410W 9593 00441 0090 +230 +109 096020 021 022 000 03
184300 1754N 07409W 9592 00442 0089 +230 +109 099020 020 023 000 00
184330 1754N 07407W 9594 00440 0090 +227 +109 099019 019 021 000 00
184400 1754N 07406W 9596 00438 0090 +229 +109 099019 019 024 000 03
184430 1754N 07404W 9595 00439 0090 +227 +109 096019 019 021 000 03
184500 1755N 07403W 9591 00442 0090 +225 +109 091017 018 020 000 03
184530 1755N 07401W 9598 00437 0091 +225 +109 094017 017 021 000 03
184600 1755N 07400W 9594 00440 0091 +225 +109 092017 018 022 000 03
184630 1755N 07358W 9593 00441 0091 +225 +109 093017 017 024 000 03
184700 1755N 07357W 9593 00440 0091 +222 +109 093015 016 025 000 00
184730 1755N 07355W 9594 00440 0091 +222 +108 091017 018 024 001 00
184800 1755N 07354W 9592 00441 0091 +222 +108 086016 017 025 001 00
184830 1755N 07352W 9594 00440 0091 +224 +107 084015 016 026 000 00
184900 1755N 07351W 9591 00442 0090 +225 +107 086013 015 025 001 00
184930 1755N 07349W 9599 00435 0090 +225 +107 085013 014 025 000 03
185000 1755N 07348W 9591 00442 0089 +225 +107 085013 014 025 000 03
$$

[jonj2040]

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[Blown Away]

18Z TVCN LANDFALL WPB!!!

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

What's left of LLC still looks to me like it's drifting just slightly north of due west. Who's to say this won't blow up again after nightfall in a few hours, as it gets further away from the D.R.?

If that LLC can redevelop, it certainly will enter a conducive area for development before getting to Cuba, if that is indeed the LLC maintaining a general westward direction.

[Kory]

18Z TVCN LANDFALL WPB!!!

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

That doesn't look right. The TVCN has it making a 90 degree turn right over Datona Beach to go back out to sea.

[Blown Away]

18Z TVCN LANDFALL WPB!!!

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

That doesn't look right. The TVCN has it making a 90 degree turn right over Datona Beach to go back out to sea.

It's a moot point now.

[Canelaw99]

Interestingly, I found this post by ronjon (I think it was) on pg 2 of the models thread.....seems some models did call for it to have trouble with Hispaniola. Maybe someone saved the prior model runs???

 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - ModelsPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2011 9:38 am 

Category 5



Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Posts: 2292
Location: Hernando Beach, FL
06z NOGAPS keeps it weak and crashes it into Hispanola and then across the spine of Cuba.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Portastorm]

Darn it ... Wxman57 won't do it, so I guess I have to.



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[cycloneye]

For the historians here,this picture shows what is a giant wheel almost void of convection when it was in the Eastern Atlantic. From there,the struggles began for this system as it was dealing with the monsoon trough that tend to slow development of a system. And it was struggeling east of the islands,after it crossed them,as it tracked thru the Eastern Caribbean and here we are near Haiti with a downgrade.



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[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041912
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 19 20110804
185030 1755N 07346W 9594 00440 0089 +224 +108 082015 016 024 000 00
185100 1755N 07345W 9592 00441 0089 +224 +108 086014 015 023 000 00
185130 1755N 07343W 9594 00438 0088 +225 +108 092012 013 024 000 00
185200 1755N 07342W 9592 00440 0089 +225 +108 090011 012 022 000 00
185230 1755N 07340W 9596 00437 0089 +225 +108 090011 011 021 000 00
185300 1755N 07339W 9589 00443 0089 +225 +109 092010 010 022 000 00
185330 1755N 07337W 9593 00439 0088 +225 +109 099008 009 021 000 03
185400 1755N 07335W 9597 00434 0087 +226 +108 117006 007 019 000 00
185430 1755N 07334W 9592 00439 0087 +227 +108 121005 005 018 000 00
185500 1755N 07332W 9604 00442 0092 +225 +108 125006 008 017 000 00
185530 1755N 07331W 9588 00442 0086 +228 +108 152005 006 014 000 03
185600 1755N 07329W 9591 00438 0085 +229 +107 178006 007 009 000 00
185630 1755N 07327W 9599 00445 0087 +229 +107 201007 009 009 000 03
185700 1755N 07326W 9593 00435 0083 +232 +107 221010 012 011 000 03
185730 1755N 07324W 9594 00434 0084 +235 +107 226014 016 012 000 03
185800 1755N 07322W 9594 00434 0081 +244 +108 218016 016 011 000 03
185830 1755N 07321W 9596 00433 0079 +253 +109 208019 020 014 000 00
185900 1755N 07319W 9592 00436 0079 +253 +111 206019 020 014 000 03
185930 1755N 07317W 9591 00438 0079 +257 +113 208019 019 014 000 00
190000 1755N 07315W 9596 00434 0082 +251 +115 204020 020 018 000 00
$$
;

[jonj2040]

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[Canelaw99]

I'm with previous posters that have said it's not over till it's over. Not saying this will happen, by any means, but just wanted to remind people that at one point Andrew had no well defined center after becoming a named trop system....

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki?search=Hurricane+andrew

[OuterBanker]

From the get go did not the Euro kill Emily at DR/Haiti.

All hail the Euro.

[fogbreath]

Extremely
Mesmerizing
Intriguing
LLC,
Yes?

I'm kinda' like many too in the "it's not over until..." camp. Not saying it will, but at this point I wouldn't be surprised by anything

[mutley]

Extremely
Mesmerizing
Intriguing
LLC,
Yes?

I'm kinda' like many too in the "it's not over until..." camp. Not saying it will, but at this point I wouldn't be surprised by anything

If you had to put a number on the chances of regeneration, what number would you give it?

[artist]

missing 20

000
URNT15 KNHC 041920
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 21 20110804
191030 1755N 07242W 9600 00442 0106 +209 +098 125029 030 037 003 00
191100 1755N 07241W 9590 00450 0100 +213 +093 122029 030 037 001 00
191130 1755N 07239W 9596 00445 0101 +214 +090 120027 028 035 003 00
191200 1755N 07238W 9597 00446 0102 +214 +088 120027 028 034 002 03
191230 1755N 07237W 9593 00451 0103 +215 +087 121026 027 033 000 00
191300 1755N 07235W 9593 00451 0104 +214 +088 118027 028 031 003 00
191330 1755N 07234W 9597 00447 0104 +212 +091 113025 026 032 001 00
191400 1755N 07232W 9599 00445 0104 +215 +092 118027 028 031 001 00
191430 1755N 07231W 9593 00451 0105 +214 +094 114025 027 029 001 00
191500 1755N 07229W 9594 00451 0106 +213 +096 112024 025 028 001 00
191530 1755N 07228W 9594 00453 0107 +212 +097 112021 023 026 002 00
191600 1755N 07226W 9595 00452 0107 +213 +096 110020 021 028 001 00
191630 1755N 07225W 9596 00451 0107 +211 +095 100020 022 028 001 00
191700 1755N 07223W 9589 00457 0108 +208 +094 092021 023 026 000 00
191730 1755N 07222W 9600 00446 0106 +211 +095 084017 019 029 000 00
191800 1755N 07220W 9593 00454 0108 +206 +095 084020 021 028 001 00
191830 1755N 07219W 9591 00454 0107 +207 +096 082022 023 027 001 00
191900 1755N 07218W 9593 00454 0108 +206 +097 087022 023 028 002 00
191930 1755N 07216W 9597 00450 0108 +204 +097 088024 025 030 002 00
192000 1755N 07215W 9592 00454 0108 +209 +096 096024 025 028 003 00
$$
;

[fogbreath]

Extremely
Mesmerizing
Intriguing
LLC,
Yes?

I'm kinda' like many too in the "it's not over until..." camp. Not saying it will, but at this point I wouldn't be surprised by anything

[jonj2040]

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[Blown Away]

Ok, the NHC has 1.5 hours before issuing Emily's eulogy. Currently some convection building near the 18z position, if over the next 1.5 hours the convection continued to build, do you think the NHC would hold off killing Emily at the 5pm advisory??