ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042000
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 25 20110804
195030 1716N 07155W 6965 03191 0103 +089 +021 206032 032 012 000 00
195100 1715N 07153W 6967 03191 0103 +088 +020 208031 031 018 000 03
195130 1714N 07151W 6971 03185 0111 +083 +019 206031 033 019 001 00
195200 1714N 07149W 6965 03193 0111 +083 +017 208031 031 022 001 00
195230 1713N 07146W 6966 03194 0113 +084 +015 208030 031 022 001 00
195300 1712N 07144W 6967 03193 0112 +085 +013 202031 031 023 001 00
195330 1711N 07142W 6958 03204 0116 +080 +010 198031 032 022 000 00
195400 1710N 07139W 6967 03193 0117 +082 +011 197031 031 023 000 00
195430 1709N 07137W 6965 03195 0123 +079 +010 192030 031 022 001 00
195500 1709N 07135W 6969 03192 0119 +080 +010 192029 030 022 000 00
195530 1708N 07133W 6965 03194 0123 +076 +010 194029 029 021 003 00
195600 1707N 07131W 6968 03194 0126 +075 +011 195027 027 022 002 00
195630 1706N 07128W 6969 03193 0129 +075 +012 198024 026 020 002 00
195700 1705N 07126W 6966 03198 0127 +077 +011 201024 026 016 000 00
195730 1704N 07124W 6970 03191 0116 +085 +009 192027 028 015 000 03
195800 1704N 07122W 6967 03198 0119 +083 +008 186024 026 013 001 00
195830 1703N 07119W 6967 03198 0122 +084 +011 177024 025 015 000 00
195900 1702N 07117W 6967 03202 0118 +086 +011 181026 027 013 001 00
195930 1701N 07115W 6969 03196 0112 +090 +011 184027 027 005 000 00
200000 1700N 07113W 6962 03208 0115 +089 +010 183027 027 /// /// 03
$$
;

[jonj2040]

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[Shuriken]

IMO the LLC is still at the far southern end of the convection and well offshore, and still moving WNW agonizingly slowly as it waits for the main wave axis in the eastern Caribbean to catch up.

[ROCK]

The ukmet has had a left bias from the start...not realistic...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

well it has been fun thus far, and I'm sure Emily has a few more days for us to watch her!
I really thought the LLC would continue west.
(chew chew chew....spitting out a few black feathers....blech, this is so gamey and dry)

[jlauderdal]

22.5%[/quote]

So you're TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE! LOL



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[/quote]

its the tropics, always a chance, conditions actually look fairly decent if the energy can get in the bahamas intact, i have that flight sat afternoon out of MIA, no generator start required to keep this thing under control, its still a little early for us anyway, aug 15-nov 1 is our time.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042010
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 26 20110804
200030 1701N 07111W 6711 03516 0121 +071 +007 187027 028 008 001 03
200100 1701N 07108W 6457 03836 0125 +051 -000 197030 030 011 000 03
200130 1701N 07106W 6177 04203 0134 +027 -009 199031 032 /// /// 03
200200 1701N 07104W 5918 04533 0120 +004 -017 200033 034 /// /// 03
200230 1702N 07102W 5681 04862 0113 -011 -027 194034 036 /// /// 03
200300 1702N 07100W 5513 05119 0119 -024 -036 196037 038 010 000 03
200330 1702N 07058W 5367 05334 0286 -036 -044 200039 039 007 001 03
200400 1702N 07056W 5213 05564 0300 -048 -053 203041 041 /// /// 03
200430 1702N 07054W 5084 05763 0312 -058 -062 205042 042 010 000 03
200500 1703N 07052W 4960 05958 0325 -069 -071 208041 042 012 000 03
200530 1703N 07050W 4839 06153 0337 -081 //// 210042 043 012 000 01
200600 1703N 07048W 4719 06349 0349 -090 //// 210042 043 012 000 05
200630 1703N 07045W 4610 06527 0355 -099 //// 214041 041 011 001 01
200700 1704N 07043W 4522 06670 0358 -107 -107 222039 039 013 001 03
200730 1704N 07041W 4421 06830 0362 -118 //// 223035 037 014 000 05
200800 1704N 07039W 4304 07035 0374 -129 -130 219030 031 013 001 03
200830 1704N 07037W 4208 07208 0384 -137 -142 217026 027 016 000 00
200900 1705N 07034W 4121 07367 0393 -143 -153 214026 027 014 000 00
200930 1705N 07032W 4096 07410 0395 -150 -167 213026 027 013 001 03
201000 1705N 07030W 4094 07415 0393 -146 -185 207027 027 013 001 00
$$
;


MISSION OVER!! Going home...

[Aric Dunn]

cimss site has it has tropical depression emily.. ?

[pcolaman]

IMO the LLC is still at the far southern end of the convection and well offshore, and still moving WNW agonizingly slowly as it waits for the main wave axis in the eastern Caribbean to catch up.

I saw that too , I didnt know if I was seeing things .

[jonj2040]

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[Aric Dunn]

IMO the LLC is still at the far southern end of the convection and well offshore, and still moving WNW agonizingly slowly as it waits for the main wave axis in the eastern Caribbean to catch up.

I saw that too , I didnt know if I was seeing things .

unfortunately recon is finding nothing that supports any sort of circulation.. what you see there is the left over mid level circ..

[mf_dolphin]

I don't think Emily is done yet. If you look at the recon pass right along the pennisula there's still a hint of rotation. As the aircraft went west to east the winds went from ssw - s - sse No doubt she's on life-support but ....

[sunnyday]

Did the NHC not see this coming? They continued to show it paralleling Fl. How could they miss it?

[sunnyday]

They do an outstanding job usually. (follow up to previous entry).

[Aric Dunn]

So I dont want to get everyone all riled up again.. But I do think I know what happened...

The circulation at least in the low level may be moving NW across the very western side if hispanola.. probably started moving early this morning. you can see it pop out of the convection moving NW. Guess it should be watched a little longer ... just not all night lol


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Im pretty confident now that the low levl circ is heading NW. The timing of the convection collapsing and the motion of the overall envelope points to to the location I have circled..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[AdamFirst]

Does the circulation look like it's holding up over land Aric?

[wzrgirl1]

Tenacious storm and not over yet, until the NHC says so. So there!

[Frank2]

Not much left to it right now - interesting that even though we thought it had already passed the chance of it crossing the Dominican Republic mountaintops, in the end most of the system is crossing that area, anyway...

No recon of course as the system crosses the island, so we'll see what's left once it emerges sometime tomorrow, perhaps...

Frank

[Dave]

A few end of mission hdobs...

000
URNT15 KNHC 042020
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 27 20110804
201030 1705N 07027W 4097 07407 0390 -146 -202 203028 029 015 000 00
201100 1706N 07024W 4097 07398 0390 -148 -210 200029 029 013 000 00
201130 1706N 07021W 4098 07406 0390 -150 -201 195030 031 013 000 03
201200 1706N 07019W 4098 07403 0390 -150 -191 194030 031 012 000 00
201230 1706N 07016W 4099 07400 0390 -150 -189 198033 034 011 000 03
201300 1707N 07013W 4098 07398 0391 -150 -194 199035 036 009 000 00
201330 1707N 07010W 4098 07404 0393 -150 -194 198034 035 005 000 00
201400 1707N 07007W 4102 07404 0393 -150 -193 199034 034 007 000 00
201430 1708N 07004W 4099 07410 0393 -150 -192 201033 034 009 000 00
201500 1708N 07001W 4099 07402 0393 -150 -192 199034 035 010 000 00
201530 1708N 06958W 4098 07408 0394 -150 -193 197035 035 009 000 03
201600 1709N 06955W 4099 07402 0393 -150 -194 198035 035 008 001 03
201630 1709N 06953W 4099 07402 0393 -150 -194 198034 034 008 000 03
201700 1709N 06950W 4098 07402 0394 -150 -193 198034 034 007 000 00
201730 1710N 06947W 4099 07401 0393 -150 -194 199034 034 006 000 03
201800 1710N 06944W 4099 07404 0394 -150 -193 199033 033 008 000 00
201830 1710N 06941W 4099 07405 0394 -150 -192 199032 033 008 000 00
201900 1710N 06938W 4098 07406 0394 -150 -194 200033 034 007 000 03
201930 1711N 06935W 4099 07407 0395 -150 -200 200034 034 008 000 03
202000 1711N 06933W 4099 07400 0394 -150 -201 202034 034 007 000 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Does the circulation look like it's holding up over land Aric?

I can still somewhat make out the low level circ... so I guess so ? will see