ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Thanks to all who contributed to the posting of data and graphics from all the missions.

Will there be more missions in the future?

[AdamFirst]

Aric's prospective area doesn't have much time left over land if that is indeed the center...looks to be cruising along

[wjs3]

Yeah, I don't know if I would call that a "circulation" exactly. Does appear to be a touch of vorticity there (probably, as you accurately point out, low level, and not surface), and you've always got to watch vorticity, but it's not much.

We shall see.

[canes04]

Aric,

Could that be the MLC? I'm watching the area near 17.5 & 73.

I give up on this one.

[Blown Away]

IMO, the only hint is near/over Central Tiburon Peninsula or just NW of the 18Z position (18.0N/72.8W). It looks like a roach and is still generally on the NHC track.

[ConvergenceZone]

WXMAN, made a great point when he said if t's declared a tropical wave, it's
not going to remember it was a TS storm before, so the chance of regeneration won't be any greater than it would be for any other tropical wave.

[GCANE]

I am sticking with my ionospheric heating theory.



Actually, there was a strong M9.3 solar flare early this morning and D-layer absorption was high all day long as it passed over the Carib.

Also, there is an abnormally high proton flux.

[Kory]

REMNANTS OF EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...EMILY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 75.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...EMILY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 75.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
HAVE DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WERE
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH EMILY HAS WEAKENED IT IS CAPABLE TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS GUSTS COULD STILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE
CYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

Could that be the MLC? I'm watching the area near 17.5 & 73.

I give up on this one.

yeah left over MLC

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042030
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 28 20110804
202030 1711N 06930W 4099 07406 0396 -150 -202 203034 034 006 000 00
202100 1712N 06927W 4099 07403 0396 -150 -201 202033 033 009 000 00
202130 1712N 06924W 4099 07405 0395 -150 -201 205032 032 009 000 00
202200 1712N 06921W 4098 07412 0397 -150 -200 206033 033 009 000 00
202230 1712N 06918W 4098 07407 0397 -150 -199 206032 032 006 000 00
202300 1713N 06915W 4098 07408 0397 -150 -198 207032 032 005 000 00
202330 1713N 06912W 4099 07409 0399 -150 -196 208032 032 008 000 00
202400 1713N 06909W 4098 07416 0399 -150 -195 209032 032 009 000 00
202430 1714N 06907W 4098 07410 0399 -150 -195 210032 033 007 000 00
202500 1714N 06904W 4099 07411 0400 -150 -196 210033 033 008 000 00
202530 1714N 06901W 4099 07409 0401 -150 -197 210032 033 008 000 00
202600 1714N 06858W 4101 07410 0399 -150 -198 211030 031 008 001 00
202630 1715N 06855W 4098 07418 0400 -150 -199 210030 030 011 000 00
202700 1715N 06852W 4098 07413 0400 -150 -199 210030 031 010 000 00
202730 1715N 06849W 4099 07412 0400 -150 -200 208032 032 011 000 03
202800 1716N 06846W 4099 07411 0400 -150 -203 208031 031 009 000 00
202830 1716N 06843W 4098 07407 0401 -150 -202 207031 032 010 001 03
202900 1716N 06840W 4099 07406 0400 -148 -203 206031 031 009 000 00
202930 1716N 06837W 4098 07412 0401 -147 -203 205030 031 010 000 03
203000 1717N 06835W 4101 07408 0400 -151 -205 196032 032 010 000 03
$$
;

Thanks to everyone who's helped out here in Recon over the course of Emily, much appreciated and with that...I'm over, off and clear. Mission is over.

[Aric Dunn]

THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF is given big props at 5 PM.

THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

[Evil Jeremy]

THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

Wasn't the Euro also good with Don?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wow. Hope the whole season isn't like Emily. Doubt it. Some of the remnants of Emily might rain on me this weekend.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 042038
97779 20314 50173 68400 70100 19030 67763 /5760
RMK AF306 1205A EMILY OB 07
Last Report
;

[micktooth]

A few years ago, I thought the name Emily should be retired, but not this time around, the name "Emily" will live on for a future storm.

[caneseddy]

The ECMWF is given big props at 5 PM.

THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

The EURO so far has been the best model...I believe it forecast Bret forming off the Florida coast as well as Don tracking south closer to Brownsville and it was the only model that consistently kept Emily very weak

So Rock, is there still space on the Euro bandwagon?

[Dave]

Thanks to all who contributed to the posting of data and graphics from all the missions.

Will there be more missions in the future?

We'll see!

Thanks for your help Cycloneye!

[lostsole]

Wow. Hope the whole season isn't like Emily. Doubt it. Some of the remnants of Emily might rain on me this weekend.

I hope it is And trust me, even if you don't live in Florida or Gulf Coast, I am sure you do not want to see what a couple of majors hitting the U.S. or disrupting Oil Production in the Gulf will do to the economy. Emily getting thrashed apart is awesome for us all!!!!!!