WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression
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- StormingB81
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- StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
- StormingB81
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- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
JMA agrees with you Storming, per the latest advisory:

ZCZC 801
WTPQ51 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 25.3N 127.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 27.2N 124.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 070000UTC 29.8N 122.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 080000UTC 34.6N 121.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 090000UTC 39.2N 120.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
120HF 100000UTC 42.9N 122.6E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT =
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 050042 COR
A. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA)
B. 04/2330Z
C. 25.3N
D. 128.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. 30NM IRREGULAR WMG EYE
SURROUNDED BY OW YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF
4.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT. CORRECTED PCN IN LINE E AND FIX
CODE IN LINE H.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/1946Z 25.4N 127.9E SSMI
04/2153Z 25.4N 128.1E SSMS
UEHARA


ZCZC 801
WTPQ51 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 25.3N 127.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 27.2N 124.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 070000UTC 29.8N 122.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 080000UTC 34.6N 121.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 090000UTC 39.2N 120.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
120HF 100000UTC 42.9N 122.6E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT =
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 050042 COR
A. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA)
B. 04/2330Z
C. 25.3N
D. 128.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. 30NM IRREGULAR WMG EYE
SURROUNDED BY OW YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF
4.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT. CORRECTED PCN IN LINE E AND FIX
CODE IN LINE H.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/1946Z 25.4N 127.9E SSMI
04/2153Z 25.4N 128.1E SSMS
UEHARA

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- StormingB81
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon
wow muifa hasn't moved much has she?...i would love to be in okinawa right now...
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- StormingB81
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon
with the collapse of Emily all the attention/focus has been on Muifa.
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- StormingB81
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- StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
- StormingB81
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- Posts: 5676
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

this was a picture of super typhoon bart in 1999 peaking at 140 knots category 5 near okinawa. thankfully muifa isn't as strong but muifa is very slow moving which potentially might be more dangerous for okinawa
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- StormingB81
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JTWC 03Z advisory out early (note error with storm located 705 nm S of Kadena at the end):
WTPN32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 25.2N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 26.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.1N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.3N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 34.9N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 39.7N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 44.8N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 127.6E.
TYPH0OON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 43//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPH0OON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TY 11W IS MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. TY 11W HAS A
30NM RAGGED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE. THE EYEWALL IS BETWEEN THE STORM
CENTER AND OKINAWA. THE SLOW AND STEADY TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA IS
PROLONGING SEVERE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER OKINAWA, BUT WINDS
ARE VEERING STEADILY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. A
042011 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING AND
NEAR-PERFECT SYMMETRY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A
NEWLY DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THE NORTHERN
PERIMETER OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION TOWARDS KYUSHU. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SURFACE REPORTS
FROM OKINAWA AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. TY 11W CONTINUES TO STEER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A 5190M 500 MB HEIGHT
CENTER OVER TOKYO. THE RIDGE IS STILL RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST. 500 MB
HEIGHTS NOW EXCEED 5880 AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS KYUSHU.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW CHURN AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NEW POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS
RELATED TO A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-
LIVED, BUT WILL AID IN SUSTAINING OR GENERATING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL AVERAGE
15 KNOTS THROUGH SHANGHAI AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES. PEAK INTENSITY WILL COME JUST
AFTER TAU 48, WHEN TY 11W IS PASSING OFF-SHORE OF SHANGHAI.
C. NORTH OF SHANGHAI, A COMBINATION OF RISING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LAND INTERACTION OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WILL WEAKEN THE STORM. AS THE STORM MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF BOHAI, THE SAME FACTORS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED AND THE SHARP RISE IN SHEAR WILL RESULT IN DECOUPLING OF
THE LOWER LEVELS. THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
FILL OVER LAND, BUT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHEARING AWAY
FROM THE STORM'S UPPER LEVELS MAY EXACERBATE FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER
THE KOREAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE
RANGE OF WEST TO EAST TRACKS IN THE EXTENDED RANGES, THERE IS GOOD
QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT ON THE SLOW AND STEADY TURN AROUND THE RIDGE
AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN, GUIDANCE PULLS
THE TRACK FURTHER SEAWARD OF SHANGHAI. THE JTWC TRACK STAYS JUST
AHEAD AND JUST INSIDE OF CONSENSUS IN ANTICIPATION
OF A CONTINUED EASTWARD WALK IN THE TRACK.//
NNNN
WTPN32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 25.2N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 26.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.1N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.3N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 34.9N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 39.7N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 44.8N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 127.6E.
TYPH0OON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 43//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPH0OON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TY 11W IS MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. TY 11W HAS A
30NM RAGGED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE. THE EYEWALL IS BETWEEN THE STORM
CENTER AND OKINAWA. THE SLOW AND STEADY TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA IS
PROLONGING SEVERE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER OKINAWA, BUT WINDS
ARE VEERING STEADILY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. A
042011 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING AND
NEAR-PERFECT SYMMETRY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A
NEWLY DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THE NORTHERN
PERIMETER OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION TOWARDS KYUSHU. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SURFACE REPORTS
FROM OKINAWA AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. TY 11W CONTINUES TO STEER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A 5190M 500 MB HEIGHT
CENTER OVER TOKYO. THE RIDGE IS STILL RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST. 500 MB
HEIGHTS NOW EXCEED 5880 AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS KYUSHU.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW CHURN AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NEW POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS
RELATED TO A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-
LIVED, BUT WILL AID IN SUSTAINING OR GENERATING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL AVERAGE
15 KNOTS THROUGH SHANGHAI AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES. PEAK INTENSITY WILL COME JUST
AFTER TAU 48, WHEN TY 11W IS PASSING OFF-SHORE OF SHANGHAI.
C. NORTH OF SHANGHAI, A COMBINATION OF RISING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LAND INTERACTION OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WILL WEAKEN THE STORM. AS THE STORM MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF BOHAI, THE SAME FACTORS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED AND THE SHARP RISE IN SHEAR WILL RESULT IN DECOUPLING OF
THE LOWER LEVELS. THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
FILL OVER LAND, BUT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHEARING AWAY
FROM THE STORM'S UPPER LEVELS MAY EXACERBATE FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER
THE KOREAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE
RANGE OF WEST TO EAST TRACKS IN THE EXTENDED RANGES, THERE IS GOOD
QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT ON THE SLOW AND STEADY TURN AROUND THE RIDGE
AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN, GUIDANCE PULLS
THE TRACK FURTHER SEAWARD OF SHANGHAI. THE JTWC TRACK STAYS JUST
AHEAD AND JUST INSIDE OF CONSENSUS IN ANTICIPATION
OF A CONTINUED EASTWARD WALK IN THE TRACK.//
NNNN
Last edited by supercane on Thu Aug 04, 2011 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon
JTE50 wrote:with the collapse of Emily all the attention/focus has been on Muifa.
really? over 230 pages for just a weak tropical storm? pretty funny...
Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Aug 04, 2011 9:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- StormingB81
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