WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

#821 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 2:36 am

the lightness is going away and the darkness is comming in..here comes that line!

#822 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 2:41 am

Infdidoll wrote:Yeah, this says something:

Fantastic image there.

My estimates of strong cat 1 conditions on SE coast seem to correlate to that graphic. Still not too bad in Naha just yet, you guys slightly further north got nailed by that solid band just now! Pressure in Naha bottomed out at 957.9hPa!

Infdidoll · #823 Postby **Infdidoll** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 2:42 am

dexterlabio wrote:That must be a long period of wind event. Those winds are strong! Though after watching both video footages Songda and Muifa made by James, I must say the footage on Songda shows more intense wind gusts and sea waves. I guess the strongest of winds from Muifa has been scattered outward but creating a wide area of windfield. The winds that Okinawa experienced from Songda were much concentrated to the center as it passes through the island with occurence of mesoscale vorticity in the eye. Nevertheless, Muifa brought an intense weather for Okinawa.

Hands down, Songda tops this one in terms of damage and wind strength. Muifa wins it for total rainfall and longevity. I remember Songda being a very dry storm. I did run to check out our cars while the eye was over us. They were fine...neighbors' cars all seemed fine, too. Songda broke several windshields of cars in our parking lot. Just about everyone had some kind of damage to their vehicle, it seemed. Songda uprooted trees, twisted metal, and moved cars. Muifa is driving us all stir crazy keeping us in the house this long and the winds are notable, but nothing exceptional. Those 100+ mph gusts during Songda made my hair stand on end. Nothing like that with Muifa...unless she's hiding a surprise for us.

On that note, the wind seems to have died down some again. What is going on?

Chacor · #824 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 2:45 am

Definitely seeing a dropoff in winds on the Kadena METARs. As Okinawa's still in Muifa's NE quadrant, the conditions should continue to be quite rough...

Chacor · #825 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 2:47 am

Probably only temporary, a very strong band about to come through!

Chacor · #826 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 2:49 am

JMA now has a level 1 tornado warning (nowcast time 5 pm local) for most of southern Okinawa. Level 1 means 1-5% possibility.

Infdidoll · #827 Postby **Infdidoll** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 2:54 am

It is dead calm out there, right now...really eerie.

#828 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 2:55 am

Funny because I think Muifa is more powerful right now than what Songa was like in Miyako when I scored a direct hit from the front right quad. Both storms are weird for sure. Muifa really taking it out on me though!

Infdidoll · #829 Postby **Infdidoll** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:02 am

2nd dip into the eyewall? Those are some very tame winds compared to what we just went through...It is TOO quiet...

4:33 PM,78.8,78.8,100,-9999,1.7,ESE,44.9,58.7,N/A,Rain,Light Rain,110,2011-08-05 07:33:00
4:36 PM,78.8,78.8,100,-9999,-9999.0,ESE,39.1,58.7,N/A,Rain,Light Rain,110,2011-08-05 07:36:00
4:48 PM,78.8,78.8,100,-9999,2.5,ESE,39.1,52.9,N/A,Rain,Light Rain,110,2011-08-05 07:48:00
4:52 PM,78.8,78.8,100,-9999,2.5,ESE,39.1,56.4,N/A,Rain,Light Rain,110,2011-08-05 07:52:00
4:53 PM,78.8,78.8,100,-9999,-9999.0,ESE,36.8,56.4,N/A,,Overcast,110,2011-08-05 07:53:00
4:55 PM,78.8,78.8,100,-9999,-9999.0,ESE,46.0,56.4,0.14,,Overcast,110,2011-08-05 07:55:00

Chacor · #830 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:03 am

Kadena just reported the first sustained winds below TS-force in a while...
SPECI RODN 050757Z AUTO 11032G49KT 4800 -RA BR OVC007 26/26 RMK AO2 PK WND 11045/0755 VIS 3200 RWY23 RAB0757 SLPNO $

Infdidoll · #831 Postby **Infdidoll** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:06 am

Very light outside again...Muifa's ever-changing eyewall is making being in this storm a real headache! I think we've dipped back into it temporarily.

#832 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:24 am

I dont think we have seen the last of the 80mph+ winds....I think she playing mind games!

#833 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:30 am

AND has it just picked up in a hurry!

#834 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:43 am

10 more minutes and dinner is done power stay on just a few more minutes...lol

alan1961 · #835 Postby **alan1961** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:45 am

Right on the edge of the eye wall.. :eek:

#836 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:52 am

Dinner done ttyl

Chacor · #837 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:55 am

JTWC warning is out:

REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 126.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A LARGE, RAGGED, AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE. A 050432Z AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE MSI AND A RADAR FIX
FROM JAPAN WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 80 TO 90 KNOTS AS WELL AS AN
OBSERVATION FROM KADENA AB THAT INDICATES A PRESSURE OF 959 MB. TY
11W MAINTAINS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 05/00Z
OBSERVATION FROM NAZE INDICATING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 500 MB.
TY MUIFA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
AND TURN MORE POLEWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CHINA
WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
IT SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AND THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BECAUSE OF LAND INTERACTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP OFF IN THE GULF OF BOHAI AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 72, WHICH WILL CAUSE FURTHER
WEAKENING. TY 11W WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE INITIAL 72 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD, ALTHOUGH ALL
MODELS THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO CHINA. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UKMO MODEL, WHICH
IS THE OUTLIER TO WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

rdhdstpchld · #838 Postby **rdhdstpchld** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 4:01 am

I know - my roast is at 145 degrees...if I can get it to 150, I'm good. LOL! Some seriously strong winds still!

#839 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 4:56 am

rdhdstpchld wrote:JAMES!!! You're a rockstar!! Just heard you chatting up Pauline on CNN...LOL! Way to go - sounded very "official" and experienced -- your momma must be so pleased! (cute accent, btw - we americans tend to think everyone should sound like us, and I too, was surprised to hear your accent)

Thanks for the kind words earlier! Glad you managed to catch the segment. Pauline's great!

KWT · #840 Postby **KWT** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:19 am

Whats a large eye this system has, eyewall still overland it seems!

WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re:

Who is online