Area near 12N 30W

[ConvergenceZone]

everything does seem to be disintegrating as soon as it hits the water. I guess we may have to wait a few more weeks for those waves to start holding together....

[HurricaneWarning92]

Is it even normal that there is so much SAL in the Atlantic this time in the season? I mean its August 4, about 5 more weeks and its the peak of hurricane season. I dont see the dust going anywhere, but maybe im wrong.

[StormClouds63]

Looks quiet for the next 5-7 days. That large high over the central U.S. would block any homegrown GOM system from moving north. The high will slowly drift westward starting early next week. Just a guess that Franklin probably forms in about 8-10 days. Don't know if it will be a CV system or one which forms closer to home.

[lebron23]

Im sorry i know it may be early, but my numbers are 11/2/1

[cheezyWXguy]

Im sorry i know it may be early, but my numbers are 11/2/1

lol 11???? we just hit august and we're practically half way to your numbers. Someone's being pessimistic...or hopeful, not sure which haha

[Nightwatch]

what was the main reason for the hurricanes in the 2010 season to turn away from land before reaching it?

And how are these conditions right now? Are they more favorable, except for the SAL atm?

[dwsqos2]

Considering that in 2009 the Atlantic managed to pump out 3 hurricane after August 15; I have the sneaking suspicion that this season will manage to produce more than two.

[KWT]

Is it even normal that there is so much SAL in the Atlantic this time in the season? I mean its August 4, about 5 more weeks and its the peak of hurricane season. I dont see the dust going anywhere, but maybe im wrong.

Pretty much yeah, of course it varies but its already come down somewhat compared to last week...

Wait for 2-3 weeks guys and I think we'll srtart to get some biggiews from the CV region, JUST like we did last year, the similarities are quite uncanny...

As for 11/2/1...well as others have said we are halfway there for NS...and as I've said before only years where conditions were better was 2005/2010...both high end No. seasons and hyperactive, I'd feel pretty confident this season will go the same way in the end.

[Aric Dunn]

SO I guess this thread is the system thats looking quite good this morning around 11-12 north and about 30 west.. ? I can already see some signs of a low level circ getting started and being so far north already in the middle of some sal and having convection is quite impressive. So there must be some decent convergence with the system. I would go with decent chance for development.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

[OURAGAN]

I agree with you Aric and there is no much Sal where it is located

[BigA]

Agree on the turning. Good observation Arc. Also, bit off topic but the wave about to emerge off Africa also possesses a robust spin. I think this is the one the Gfs develops.

[N2FSU]

Looks more and more promising this morning:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

[RL3AO]

Its the best anything has looked on TPW images since Emily left africa.

[Blown Away]

Is there any model support for this area?

[cycloneye]

Is there any model support for this area?

Model support by GFS,CMC and ECMWF is for waves in West Africa and Central Africa,still not clear on which of those.

['CaneFreak]

There is also a fairly high probability of formation from the NOAA/HRD:



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[AJC3]

That vortex seems to be getting hammered by dry air and easterly upper level shear. Models were never really keen on it anyway. Let's see what happens farther east, closer to 12N, 20-25W by Sunday/Monday. Models seem to be keying on that area.

[ronjon]

ECM very bullish on AJ3's wave currently over Africa. Has been for several runs in a row. Add GFS too.

[KWT]

Probably this will be the front runner helping to further moisten the atmosphere.

[HurricaneWarning92]

OMG... Thank you mother nature for keeping us entertained! But yeah, i also see some rotation with that wave thats already in the central Atlantic. dont know if it will develop into something though.