ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Florida1118]

whats there to do now that Emily is gone? (at least for the time being). The Atlantic is dead. No activity. Sucks that it ended this way. After 200+ pages...

There IS a typhoon effecting Japan right now...and its not that uncommon for 200+ pages.

[HURAKAN]

In my opinion, people need to let Emily go!

[psyclone]

In my opinion, people need to let Emily go!

that's certainly not a problem for me! those fretting over a current lack of activity should keep in mind that now that we're in august we probably won't need to wait too long for something to pop.

[blp]

Well guys don't feel bad TS Fay had 671 pages in discussion.....

[boca]

I know this means nothing but theirs a little hot spot at the eastern edge of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[JonathanBelles]

My first verification report on Emily for the forecast I made on Monday:





Full report: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/2011/08/05/emily-verification-report-1/

Any and all feedback is appreciated.

[Hurricane Jed]

In my opinion, people need to let Emily go!

Indeed. Bring on Franklin!

[SootyTern]

I couldn't be happier to see her poof! I'm in San Francisco for the next week and a half and want to enjoy my time here without worrying about tropical mischief at my house while I am gone.

[ROCK]

I think I remember Rock actually looking at the NAM at one time during this mess. Props to KING EURO

yeah however the NAM had the right idea with Emilys track,

[maxintensity]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050542
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY...A SURFACE TROUGH...ARE
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM JAMAICA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Tertius]

60%? Seriously? That is rather extraordinary when you consider the mess that she has left behind. I kinda hope she makes it, she has that "Little Engine That Could" quality to her.

[SouthDadeFish]

Wow I'm really surprised it's still 60%. I guess when you still have that much vorticity there, you have a large potential.

[FireRat]

I don't recall the NHC having ever written off a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic and suddenly upped the risk to high (60%) in less than 24 hours. I was smelling it all along, this "little engine that could" might actually make a comeback after Saturday.

thoughts anyone?

[stormreader]

You know what? I think the NHC is right. Emily has a good chance to regenerate. I'm looking at the southern coast of E Cuba very near the Mona Passage between Cuba and Haiti. The NHC has the whole area (from there up through the Turks and Caicos) colored in red. But I'm looking further south here in the Carribean.

[stormreader]

I think if that area (above) along the south coast of E Cuba slides just a little further west and gets beneath central Cuba (a little more water there) we might be looking at something. But NHC might think better chances are further north up in the Bahamas.

[KWT]

There is some convection near E.Cuba, 60% sounds a little high but I don't thinkconditions are *that* bad that reformation isn't possible.

[cycloneye]

near the Mona Passage between Cuba and Haiti

To have it right,is the Windward Passage.

[jlauderdal]

I think I remember Rock actually looking at the NAM at one time during this mess. Props to KING EURO

yeah however the NAM had the right idea with Emilys track,

i have seen the NAM get dissed on this board many times but i have seen it perform well many times.

[xironman]

The GFS takes that area of vorticity off the north coast of Cuba and forms a weak closed low over the Bahamas tomorrow. That seems like a reasonable solution.

[Nimbus]

Pic de la Selle destroyed Emilys core but there is still a surface low in the area. Often times the area of low pressure becomes too broad and shallow to redevelop a central core again but if the NHC is giving it a 60% maybe they know something.