Global model runs discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2321 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2011 7:16 am

Nothing showing up in the models that may be a candidate for development in the next ten days.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2322 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:13 am

Good! 8-)
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2323 Postby Macrocane » Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:35 am

Interesting my thinking is: Boring, and before you tell me something I have to say that I know they can do harm and I don't want that but I'm a weather enthusiast so I find them really interesting. I think that something may form around August 20, more or less in that date the activity really ramps up.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2324 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:50 pm

GFS wakes up with a long CV tracker. Now we need to see the other models joining to be more confident this may occur.See the animation.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2325 Postby alan1961 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 7:07 pm

Yes cycloneye..GFS spawns something off the african coast
approximately around next sunday and its still there at the
end of the run, so possible Franklyn could be in the making
but its only one model run for now :wink:

Image

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2326 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:57 am

I see around four systems that 12z GFS trys to develop. See the entire run at loop.

12z GFS Loop
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#2327 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:24 pm

I suspect things willbe abit slower till mid month then as per last year I fully expect the CV/Recurve train to commence afterwards, maybe not quite as intense as last year but I still suspect we'll get a decent number...
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2328 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2011 1:29 pm

CMC trys to have something after 72 hours near Cape Verde Islands.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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#2329 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 04, 2011 1:33 pm

Anything forming near the CV is pretty much fish material, the subtropical high pressure belt is very weak just like last year.
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Re:

#2330 Postby HurricaneFan » Thu Aug 04, 2011 2:08 pm

KWT wrote:Anything forming near the CV is pretty much fish material, the subtropical high pressure belt is very weak just like last year.


But isn't the subtropical high much stronger than normal so far this year?
Are the models predicting such a drastic change?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2331 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 2:27 pm

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 07 2011 - 12Z THU AUG 11 2011


USED THE 12Z/03 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY
FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH A ZONAL POLAR JET GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE
NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS BLOCKING BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF AT
HIGHER LATITUDES. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW...WITH LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN OR MODEL-TO-MODEL CONTINUITY. WHILE
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FLATTEST OF THE VARIOUS
MODELS...THE ECENS MEAN IS A BETTER CHOICE CONSIDERING THE
IMPROBABILITY OF CAPTURING THE MYRIAD OF FAST MOVING IMPULSES AT
THE MEDIUM TIME RANGE.

AS THE WESTERLIES SINK SOUTHWARD THIS PERIOD MEAN TROFS ARE SET UP
BOTH ALONG THE PACIFIC AND ATLC COASTS BUT THE MID NATION RIDGING
WITH ITS PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL HTS SHIFT WESTWARD WITH
ITS RIDGE CENTER OVER SWRN CONUS BY D+8-11. THIS BRINGS MORE
NORMAL MID LEVEL HTS AND TEMPS OVER MUCH OF CONUS. EASTWARD OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY CHARTS OF
CMC/ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEST MOVING AFRICAN WAVES LATE PERIOD AND
BEYOND WHICH FITS CLIMATOLOGY. MODELS HAVE VARIOUS TIMING ON THESE
IMPULSES BUT NO SPECIFIC WAVE CAN BE KEYED ON AT THIS TIME.


UPDATED PRELIMS BASED ON 60/40 00Z ECMWF/GFS ENS MEANS. WEAK SFC
FEATURES AND UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVES YIELD LOW CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL
FEATURES. EARLIER USE OF ENS MEANS PRECLUDE ANY USE OF NEWER
GUIDANCE WITH ANY CONFIDENCE SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR AFTN
FINAL PROGS
CISCO/ROSENSTEIN



Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2332 Postby sky1989 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:10 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 07 2011 - 12Z THU AUG 11 2011


USED THE 12Z/03 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY
FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH A ZONAL POLAR JET GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE
NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS BLOCKING BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF AT
HIGHER LATITUDES. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW...WITH LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN OR MODEL-TO-MODEL CONTINUITY. WHILE
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FLATTEST OF THE VARIOUS
MODELS...THE ECENS MEAN IS A BETTER CHOICE CONSIDERING THE
IMPROBABILITY OF CAPTURING THE MYRIAD OF FAST MOVING IMPULSES AT
THE MEDIUM TIME RANGE.

AS THE WESTERLIES SINK SOUTHWARD THIS PERIOD MEAN TROFS ARE SET UP
BOTH ALONG THE PACIFIC AND ATLC COASTS BUT THE MID NATION RIDGING
WITH ITS PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL HTS SHIFT WESTWARD WITH
ITS RIDGE CENTER OVER SWRN CONUS BY D+8-11. THIS BRINGS MORE
NORMAL MID LEVEL HTS AND TEMPS OVER MUCH OF CONUS. EASTWARD OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY CHARTS OF
CMC/ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEST MOVING AFRICAN WAVES LATE PERIOD AND
BEYOND WHICH FITS CLIMATOLOGY. MODELS HAVE VARIOUS TIMING ON THESE
IMPULSES BUT NO SPECIFIC WAVE CAN BE KEYED ON AT THIS TIME.


UPDATED PRELIMS BASED ON 60/40 00Z ECMWF/GFS ENS MEANS. WEAK SFC
FEATURES AND UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVES YIELD LOW CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL
FEATURES. EARLIER USE OF ENS MEANS PRECLUDE ANY USE OF NEWER
GUIDANCE WITH ANY CONFIDENCE SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR AFTN
FINAL PROGS
CISCO/ROSENSTEIN



Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html




I may be understanding this incorrectly, but does that mean that the Ridge over the southern U.S may retreat westward? Would that not make the U.S more susceptible to landfalling tropical cyclones?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2333 Postby bohaiboy » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:13 pm

I have a question concerning models. While they storms developing, within the forecasts the associated lows are never very low? For instnace teh above long term GFS has a low in the GOM and an associatred 1008mb low. THat seems like a high pressure to me. So just curious and wanted to ask the experts.

Tim in Houston
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2334 Postby sky1989 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:34 pm

bohaiboy wrote:I have a question concerning models. While they storms developing, within the forecasts the associated lows are never very low? For instnace teh above long term GFS has a low in the GOM and an associatred 1008mb low. THat seems like a high pressure to me. So just curious and wanted to ask the experts.

Tim in Houston



I'm no expert, but a 1008 mb low on the GFS would be a very weak system, likely a TD or weak TS. You can tell how strong a system is by looking at how many closed isobars you see. If the pressures surrounding the 1008 mb low are relatively high, then that means that the 1008 mb low could be stronger due to a pressure gradient. Sometimes, you may see a model showing a closed low with many tight isobars that might show 980 mb; that would be the average pressure, and the lowest pressure in the center of that storm might actually be much lower.
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Re: Re:

#2335 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:47 pm

HurricaneFan wrote:
KWT wrote:Anything forming near the CV is pretty much fish material, the subtropical high pressure belt is very weak just like last year.


But isn't the subtropical high much stronger than normal so far this year?
Are the models predicting such a drastic change?


Well stronger compared to last year...

At the moment though its all been on the eastern side of the Atlantic, with a strong Azores high...the exact pattern that set-up funnily enough last year. Probably bodes well for a strong CV season.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2336 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 5:52 pm

To get a threat to the SE US and/or Gulf from a CV system, I would think that we need the double-barreled Azores/Bermuda High setup in some configuration, and right now we only have one-half of that with a strong E Atlantic high.

Of course, close-in development is always a possibility from here to the end of October, and those can obviously result in some nasty storms. But unless some switch is flipped and a strong Bermuda/E US high appears, it seems to be looking like there's nothing much to fear from CV this year. Never know, though. Back in 1992 the mother of all highs suddenly parked itself off the East Coast for several days, and we know what happened after that.
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#2337 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 05, 2011 12:04 am

The ECMWF has been rather consisting the past couple of runs of showing a strong and broad 850mb vorticity around 30W (CV) the last couple of runs on Friday (Aug 12). And adding credence to the ECMWF solution is that the MJO is forecast to be on the upward phase by late next week.



Image

ECMWF Ensembles MJO forecast. Phase 1&2 are upward motion for the Atlantic

Image

GFS Ensembles MJO forecast is very close to the Euro.

Image

ECMWF Ensembles forecast below normal 500mb heights by the end of next week in Hurricane Alley. That is another sign that something may try to pop up.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2338 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:26 am

GFS continues to show the wave that is now in Central Africa trying to develop.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2339 Postby alan1961 » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:04 am

Hmmm..where are you possible Franklyn? :) 2 potential areas
to watch over Central Africa.

Image

GFS still showing something next week at 72 hours.

Image
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#2340 Postby AJC3 » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:47 am

There's a pretty decent signal from all the globals I looked at that a low will be trying to spin up in the deep tropics somewhere in the neighborhood of 12-13N and 21-25W in about 60 hours (SUN evening, 8 PM). METEOSAT shows a large area of positive voticity over the east Atlantic centered along 12N with embedded maxes around 30W, 10-12W, and 0-3E. It sort of resembles a WPAC monsoon trough, though not nearly as convectively active this morning.

The CV season looks like it's shifting into it's August-September mode right on schedule.
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