ATL: EMILY - Remnants
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
Yeah, and looking at it again, there is a north component to the whole area (not just west) so perhaps the better area to look (instead of south of Cuba) would in fact be the Turks and Caicos or the extreme southern Bahamas. But I think the NHC forecast of probable regeneration (60%) is solid.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
I'm gonna move my blue circle a little farther wnw. This is the area I see the most vorticity but it's in a pocket of dry air and flow is being disrupted by cuba and Jamicia.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
MIMIC-TPW still looks good: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html
Circulation has not collapsed or been squished or absorbed so now all is needed is something at the surface. Center (of moisture circulation) appears to be right at NE Cuba.
Circulation has not collapsed or been squished or absorbed so now all is needed is something at the surface. Center (of moisture circulation) appears to be right at NE Cuba.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY...IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH..
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY...IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH..
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 051152
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W ACROSS THE E TIP OF
CUBA ALONG 19N76W OVER JAMAICA TO NEAR 17N79W. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-21N W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS TO 78W. A BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN/SW ATLC WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE S TIP
OF HAITI NEAR 18N74W INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 25N66W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND SE
BAHAMAS.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD 15 MPH..
$$
PAW
AXNT20 KNHC 051152
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W ACROSS THE E TIP OF
CUBA ALONG 19N76W OVER JAMAICA TO NEAR 17N79W. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-21N W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS TO 78W. A BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN/SW ATLC WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE S TIP
OF HAITI NEAR 18N74W INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 25N66W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND SE
BAHAMAS.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD 15 MPH..
$$
PAW
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

This is where I see spin this morning.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
11:45Z VIS & Funktop




Last edited by TheBurn on Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
TRMM has a hot-tower west off Gitmo Bay.
Even though mid-level circulation is moving into the Bahamas, I am watching between Cuba and Jamaica.

Even though mid-level circulation is moving into the Bahamas, I am watching between Cuba and Jamaica.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
Some turning seen east of the southeast Bahamas - we'll see what happens, though the entire area looks to be moving northward at a steady pace:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
Pretty strong cells along the SE Cuba shoreline as shown on Aqua's microwave imager.


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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
Morning everyone! would anyone suprised to see a depression status be assigned today to the remnants?
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pretty good rotation north of CUBA.. no convection with it.. but that might change today.. still pretty good chance of redevelopment..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
underthwx wrote:Morning everyone! would anyone suprised to see a depression status be assigned today to the remnants?
Today I'd be surprised. It's got a long way to go.
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And it mostly heading WNW along the northern coast of CUBA similar to the GFS showing that weak vort. should head into florida over the next couple days.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

And even though the towers are firing in E Cuba, their is a north component to the whole system and I notice that the convection is increasing now north of Cuba in the southern Bahamas closer to where a possible Mid Level Center is located. I think you have to look along the north coast of Cuba---southern Bahamas area for development beginning tomorrow. My Opinion.
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BTW, the convection in SE Cuba is just from the convergence & lifting., SE winds are being lifted up by the mountains in SE Cuba which run parallel to the coast. There is nothing happening there. Look where they placed the best track position. That's where the surface vorticity is this morning.
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Re:
NDG wrote:They are going to be starting the tropical models closer to the surface trough than by the mid level vorticity. It will interesting.
AL, 05, 2011080512, , BEST, 0, 220N, 765W,
yeah thats because the greatest vorticity and potential for a surface circ to take shape once convection can fire.. that the area I just mentioned.
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