ATL: EMILY - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
stormreader

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7741 Postby stormreader » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:24 am

Yeah, and looking at it again, there is a north component to the whole area (not just west) so perhaps the better area to look (instead of south of Cuba) would in fact be the Turks and Caicos or the extreme southern Bahamas. But I think the NHC forecast of probable regeneration (60%) is solid.
0 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7742 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:27 am

I'm gonna move my blue circle a little farther wnw. This is the area I see the most vorticity but it's in a pocket of dry air and flow is being disrupted by cuba and Jamicia.
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7743 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:34 am

MIMIC-TPW still looks good: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Circulation has not collapsed or been squished or absorbed so now all is needed is something at the surface. Center (of moisture circulation) appears to be right at NE Cuba.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145382
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7744 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:39 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY...IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH..

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#7745 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:56 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W ACROSS THE E TIP OF
CUBA ALONG 19N76W OVER JAMAICA TO NEAR 17N79W. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-21N W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS TO 78W. A BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN/SW ATLC WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE S TIP
OF HAITI NEAR 18N74W INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 25N66W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND SE
BAHAMAS.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD 15 MPH..


$$
PAW
0 likes   

User avatar
mutley
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 311
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:18 am
Location: Gainesville, FL

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7746 Postby mutley » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:57 am

Image

This is where I see spin this morning.
0 likes   
The preceding comments are never to be used as information to establish circumstances, plans or procedures for any weather related events. Only use official National Hurricane Center or National Weather Service information issued for your area.

Kory
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 200
Age: 29
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:32 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana

#7747 Postby Kory » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:02 am

The mass of showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Cuba is quite interesting this morning, since there is no other area of convection like that. But its over land, so no development is possible.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#7748 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:10 am

It will be interesting to see where they start the tropical models out of Emily's remnants. First vis sat loop I see that the surface trough is near Camaguey Cuba, 77th longitude, while the H85 vorticity is near the island of Great Inagua, well east of the surface trough.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheBurn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 540
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:00 pm
Location: Rincon, PR

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7749 Postby TheBurn » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:16 am

11:45Z VIS & Funktop

Image

Image
Last edited by TheBurn on Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11498
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7750 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:17 am

TRMM has a hot-tower west off Gitmo Bay.

Even though mid-level circulation is moving into the Bahamas, I am watching between Cuba and Jamaica.


Image
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7751 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:22 am

Some turning seen east of the southeast Bahamas - we'll see what happens, though the entire area looks to be moving northward at a steady pace:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11498
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7752 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:26 am

Pretty strong cells along the SE Cuba shoreline as shown on Aqua's microwave imager.

Image
0 likes   

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2360
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7753 Postby underthwx » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:27 am

Morning everyone! would anyone suprised to see a depression status be assigned today to the remnants?
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#7754 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:32 am

pretty good rotation north of CUBA.. no convection with it.. but that might change today.. still pretty good chance of redevelopment..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7755 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:33 am

underthwx wrote:Morning everyone! would anyone suprised to see a depression status be assigned today to the remnants?


Today I'd be surprised. It's got a long way to go.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#7756 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:37 am

And it mostly heading WNW along the northern coast of CUBA similar to the GFS showing that weak vort. should head into florida over the next couple days.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

stormreader

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7757 Postby stormreader » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:44 am

Image

And even though the towers are firing in E Cuba, their is a north component to the whole system and I notice that the convection is increasing now north of Cuba in the southern Bahamas closer to where a possible Mid Level Center is located. I think you have to look along the north coast of Cuba---southern Bahamas area for development beginning tomorrow. My Opinion.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#7758 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:50 am

They are going to be starting the tropical models closer to the surface trough than by the mid level vorticity. It will interesting.

AL, 05, 2011080512, , BEST, 0, 220N, 765W,
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#7759 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:53 am

BTW, the convection in SE Cuba is just from the convergence & lifting., SE winds are being lifted up by the mountains in SE Cuba which run parallel to the coast. There is nothing happening there. Look where they placed the best track position. That's where the surface vorticity is this morning.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re:

#7760 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:54 am

NDG wrote:They are going to be starting the tropical models closer to the surface trough than by the mid level vorticity. It will interesting.

AL, 05, 2011080512, , BEST, 0, 220N, 765W,


yeah thats because the greatest vorticity and potential for a surface circ to take shape once convection can fire.. that the area I just mentioned.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests