ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7801 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:24 am

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Re: ATL: Ex EMILY - Models

#7802 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:26 am

There still running models for it...12z bams bring the moisture close to sfl.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7803 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:29 am

Looks like everyone's focused on the right area. I circled where I see best rotation going on - not closed but looks like it's trying to close off and convection is growing towards middle of that circle.

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#7804 Postby plasticup » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:30 am

If this were a new Invest rather than a remnant I think we would be really excited about. By which I mean, we should be really excited about this.

(and we are!)
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7805 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:32 am

Shear not bad, pretty-good boundary-layer moisture; uncapped.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7806 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:34 am

I see convection on IR building back around a center. Run a loop. May be back in action tomorrow!
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7807 Postby marciacubed » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:35 am

It looks like it has a good chance to develop since the SST are in the 80's in that area. IMO This is just my opinion and is not a forecast.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7808 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:37 am

If it does come back who gets the credit? Certainly not the Euro. with respect to Avilia. Seems a couple of other models had the West solution and then lost it over Cuba/Hisp. Anyone know which models those were. Always good to check the reliability.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7809 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:38 am

marciacubed wrote:It looks like it has a good chance to develop since the SST are in the 80's in that area. IMO This is just my opinion and is not a forecast.


Not just 80s, very hot upper 80s.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7810 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:38 am

I can't believe a TS LLC dissipated over water in the Caribbean in August.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7811 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:39 am

Sanibel wrote:I can't believe a TS LLC dissipated over water in the Caribbean in August.


Due to the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, not over water.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7812 Postby marciacubed » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:40 am

:D
NDG wrote:
marciacubed wrote:It looks like it has a good chance to develop since the SST are in the 80's in that area. IMO This is just my opinion and is not a forecast.


Not just 80s, very hot upper 80s.

Yea I know ! Just trying to be conservative in my statement. :D
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#7813 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:41 am

BTW, the H85 vorticity on the 12z gfs was started spot on the area that we are looking at this morning, lets see what it does with it.

Edit, for the short term it does not do much with it, moves it towards Andros Island.
Last edited by NDG on Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#7814 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:42 am

slowly coming together...enviromental conditions look good....
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7815 Postby crimi481 » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:51 am

This getting very interesting
Low center energy jumped over Cuba - re-forming on N. Coast. And I do not see why NHC thinks it will go N. then N.E.
See the "ridge line" building to the "low swirl's" North - pushing everything towards west. Do you see weekness in that Ridge (like a trough?)
High clouds seem to be converging to center (from all sides) -as shear lessened some

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Best to click on WV Animation - see the ridge - North of Emily
Florida "may" be in picture here. (opinion -based on Sat Imiges)
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7816 Postby plasticup » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:54 am

Sanibel wrote:I can't believe a TS LLC dissipated over water in the Caribbean in August.

Mountains shred circulation.
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#7817 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:59 am

plasticup wrote:If this were a new Invest rather than a remnant I think we would be really excited about. By which I mean, we should be really excited about this.

(and we are!)


when are they sending da plane? this thing continues ramping up this afternoon they better have the tanks topped off and ready to roll out of miami...dont want to hear about any avionics issues, data transmission errors, etc...they have a solid 8 months of the year to have this stuff worked out in advance
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7818 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:14 am

First of all, there isn't any low center north of Cuba. There is some lower-level rotation evident but no evidence of a closed low center. Pressures are a bit high in the area north of Cuba now. Conditions aloft are not ideal for redevelopment. Shear is still present and the shear won't likely diminish much in the next 24 hours as the disturbance passes east of Florida. And the reason it's forecast to turn off to the north and northeast is the projected steering pattern, governed by the placement of the high pressure area east of the disturbance and the trof along the East U.S. Coast. Here's a graphic illustrating the steering flow for tomorrow night. Even if it was to redevelop by tomorrow night, it would be on its way out to sea shortly thereafter. Regardless of what happens, you'll be lucky to see much rain out of it across the FL peninsula when it passes to the east tomorrow.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#7819 Postby cpdaman » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:16 am

lol just on schedule
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#7820 Postby petit_bois » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:19 am

not even a fish... simply fish bait
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