ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[mutley]

I dont see any low level circulation...

perhaps our hope can conjour one up?

I've been doing my share of piling on the hope.

[AdamFirst]

wxman57 is usually the one to crush your hopes and dreams, like he did on the last page.

I just hope we get some downpours from this but even that seems unlikely. Maybe the 2 PM TWO will surprise us.

Absolutely stellar day here in Central FL, albeit hot. Big blue sky, not a cloud in sight. Reminiscent of how the day before a hurricane looks.

[GCANE]

You tell me.





http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/custom/index.htm?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=10&width=1000&height=800&info=vis&zoom=1&palette=ir.pal&quality=100&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=22.4&lon=-77

[crimi481]

From a non- pro view of Sat Loop, I ask Pro's for help.
What is shown here to stop Emily from crossing Fl somewhere (or through Keys)?
Also , where is evisence on any mid/heavy sheer? - click (top right) enhancements/ "Cool season" B&W
Thanks!

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[SouthDadeFish]

You tell me.





http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/custom/index.htm?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=10&width=1000&height=800&info=vis&zoom=1&palette=ir.pal&quality=100&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=22.4&lon=-77

I see a LLC there GCane. Pretty clear swirl to me with west winds.

[xironman]

That circulation is in the left over very dry air, so it would probably be choking on it.

[Vortex]

not sure if its and eddy rotating around a large gyre...either ways getting more interesing by the hour...MIA radar should come in handy later tonight...

[stormreader]

I can't believe a TS LLC dissipated over water in the Caribbean in August.

Due to the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, not over water.

You sure about that NDG? I think the center was still south of Hispaniola, and if that is correct you wouldn't have expected the storm to dissipate so quickly without the center being onshore. Actually, I think the mountains might only have had an indirect effect by impeding some of the inflow. But all in all it looks like this thing just dissipated mostly of its own accord. A day or so earlier their was a time when it looked as though it were about to go open wave and this was well before Hispaniola. Reminded of a storm named Chris that dissipated (seems like in the same general) area in 2006.

[cpdaman]

i see a similiar swirl at 25N 75w that looks like it could be a little LLC or eddy

so besides the lil LLC just off n coast of cuba and the swirl at 25n 75 w (anyone see it)

my eyes are more focused at 22.1 76.3

this appears to be where the carribean loop puts the L

[GCANE]

Updated RUC, 12 hrs out.

[crimi481]

You beat me to it
I have 76.4 22. (close enough) - the new are of LL circulation, heading W.NW

[GCANE]

Strong CAPE down there, around 5000.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF EMILY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[artist]

well Avila kept it at 60%.

[cpdaman]

note location of low now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

"AWT" 22/76.2 ish

the two other swirls are more like eddy like (n. of cuba & other eddy near 25n/75w)

[ozonepete]

I can't believe a TS LLC dissipated over water in the Caribbean in August.

Due to the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, not over water.

You sure about that NDG? I think the center was still south of Hispaniola, and if that is correct you wouldn't have expected the storm to dissipate so quickly without the center being onshore. Actually, I think the mountains might only have had an indirect effect by impeding some of the inflow. But all in all it looks like this thing just dissipated mostly of its own accord. A day or so earlier their was a time when it looked as though it were about to go open wave and this was well before Hispaniola. Reminded of a storm named Chris that dissipated (seems like in the same general) area in 2006.

I'm with NDG. It was all about the mountains.

[Vortex]

note location of low now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

"AWT" 22/76.2 ish

the two other swirls are more like eddy like (n. of cuba & other eddy near 25n/75w)

Looks good to me.....

[Jevo]

well Avila kept it at 60%.

I know its Friday.. but Lixion is drinking the Mojitos kinda early

[cpdaman]

note location of low now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

"AWT" 22/76.2 ish

the two other swirls are more like eddy like (n. of cuba & other eddy near 25n/75w)

Looks good to me.....

i would think as this gets more distance from cuba the S inflow and convection may start poppin to the south of low...in the meantime .this maybe lopsided for a while tonite IMO

[SouthDadeFish]

I wonder if daytime heating over Cuba will help moisten the environment. Looks like its already starting to cancel out the sea breeze over Cuba after looking at hi-res visible loops.