ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Typhoon_Willie]

It looks like thunderstorm activity is increasing. Here is the visible link.

[mutley]

It looks like thunderstorm activity is increasing. Here is the visible link.

It also looks like that spin over cuba may have gone poof. Maybe something can get going closer to the convection.

[gatorcane]

Certainly looks like the whole messy blob is moving more WNW than NNW this afternoon, but it looks a whole lot better than it did this morning, now that it has open ocean to work with....

SSTs may be in the 84-86F range or so where the low is currently at, plenty of fuel is there that is for sure. If upper-level conditions do become favorable as the current thinking is, should be interesting to see if it can re-organize quickly

BTW, I just don't see alot of shear over it right now, though a few hundred miles north I see some good ENE shear...

[hipshot]

It looks like thunderstorm activity is increasing. Here is the visible link.

If that area is really the area of circulation, it sure looks like it is moving W or WNW thru
the straits and south of Andros. Maybe I have been looking at this monitor too long.

[ozonepete]

Still have to say though, that that circled area is suspicious as well. Looks like an MLC is starting to spin up.

[Blown Away]

Wxman57, seems like a pretty deep trough for early August sending ex-Emily away, do you think this setup will dominate through the heart of the season?

[Aric Dunn]

Any LLC development will be near that recent convection firing.. the little swirl/ low at about 78 west is the axis but the convection will pull in the flow inwards and with the vorticity already in place thats where it would likely take shape over the next 12 hours.

so roughly 77 to 78 west.. atm should continue wnw to NW for at least the next 24hours..due to the low level steering.

[gatorcane]

Any LLC development will be near that recent convection firing.. the little swirl/ low at about 78 west is the axis but the convection will pull in the flow inwards and with the vorticity already in place thats where it would likely take shape over the next 12 hours.

so roughly 77 to 78 west.. atm should continue wnw to NW for at least the next 24hours..

Look at the deep thunderstorms blowing off of Cuba now and getting sucked into the low, which is now nearly surrounded by deep convection....hmmm

"Me thinks" it is organizing ....and quickly I might add

[Aric Dunn]

Any LLC development will be near that recent convection firing.. the little swirl/ low at about 78 west is the axis but the convection will pull in the flow inwards and with the vorticity already in place thats where it would likely take shape over the next 12 hours.

so roughly 77 to 78 west.. atm should continue wnw to NW for at least the next 24hours..

Look at the deep thunderstorms blowing off of Cuba now and getting sucked into the low, which is now nearly surrounded by deep convection....hmmm

"Me thinks" it is organizing ....and quickly I might add

yeah thats all that was really needed was convection to get things started again.. if the convection can persist than I would go with re development sooner rather than later.. the winds just east of there are still 35mph.. just need a well defined center

[Blown Away]

Any LLC development will be near that recent convection firing.. the little swirl/ low at about 78 west is the axis but the convection will pull in the flow inwards and with the vorticity already in place thats where it would likely take shape over the next 12 hours.

so roughly 77 to 78 west.. atm should continue wnw to NW for at least the next 24hours..

Look at the deep thunderstorms blowing off of Cuba now and getting sucked into the low, which is now nearly surrounded by deep convection....hmmm

"Me thinks" it is organizing ....and quickly I might add

Looks that way, but that low is so broad IMO it's going to take a while to build down to the surface.

[NDG]

Emily is coming back to life this afternoon, very apparent closed circulation developing near 23N & 77W, IMO.

[Tropics Guy]

Emily is coming back to life this afternoon, very apparent closed circulation developing near 23N & 77W, IMO.

I agree, think she's starting to crank again, though that spinning in that area could be a start of a new MLC...............

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

TG

[jlauderdal]

Emily is coming back to life this afternoon, very apparent closed circulation developing near 23N & 77W, IMO.

send in da plane, da plane

[NDG]

Southwest winds now being reported to the south of the developing area of low pressure, in the Province of Camaguey.

Estación No Temperatura (ºC) Humedad Relativa (%) Viento Lluvias en 3 horas (mm) Lluvias en 24 horas (mm)
a las 14:00*
Máxima Mínima Actual (km/h) (°)
Santa Cruz del Sur 78351 30 24.5 30 76 21.6 100 E 4.0 7.0
Esmeralda 78352 31.5 23.5 28 80 14.4 200 SSO 0 0.2
Nuevitas 78353 31.3 26.2 29.4 73 14.4 200 SSO 5.0 5.0
Palo Seco 78354 31.3 23.1 30.8 62 25.2 220 SO 0 1.0
Camagüey 78355 31.4 24.5 30.2 67 25.2 220 SO 0 0.1


http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... &TB3=Camagüey&TB4=/pronostico/FM-12.csv&TB5=9

[AdamFirst]

Any possibility recon flies out tonight?

And where would they launch from - St. Croix or Biloxi?

[NDG]

Any possibility recon flies out tonight?

And where would they launch from - St. Croix or Biloxi?

Is not scheduled until tomorrow afternoon, doubt they will fly sooner than that, unless it becomes a threat to SE FL before then, IMO.

[somethingfunny]

Since Emily's LLC has completely dissipated, wouldn't any new vortex that forms from the remnants be named Franklin?

[ronjon]

1011 mb low spotted by SSD now S-SW of Andros Island. Circulation looks elongated east-west but may be tightening up. Convection certainly on the increase.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Tropics Guy]

Since Emily's LLC has completely dissipated, wouldn't any new vortex that forms from the remnants be named Franklin?

Would be continued as Emily since she would have reformed from the remnants of Emily...............

TG

[Stormcenter]

Well for now it seems as though the remnants of Emily are for "entertainment purposes" only now based on the lastest model runs. Looks like she will even miss Bermuda. JMHO