ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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#8001 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:24 pm

There are several vorts that are competing with each other looking at the loops, it never has been able to really develop one solid LLC that didn't have any competition with another area.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8002 Postby sponger » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:27 pm

Poll Chance of being upgraded to tropical depression t 11:00?

My guess 25% tonight.

This is exciting!
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#8003 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:28 pm

Putting the loop on and turning on the winds button there is some decent obs pointing towards a surface circ developing S of andros island.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8004 Postby mutley » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:30 pm

bella_may wrote:Dont know about u guys, but im ready to start tracking a new system. Emily or the remants of emily has gotten old! Lol


If you look at the evolution of the Emily remnants over the last six hours, I'd say the party is just getting started. :D
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#8005 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:30 pm

Aric, yep there is some good rotation down there, convection is well displaced to the east though.
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Re:

#8006 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Putting the loop on and turning on the winds button there is some decent obs pointing towards a surface circ developing S of andros island.


Wouldn't surprise me with all that convergence going on in the area. I think the vortex we were tracking this morning out west got tugged at by all the convection to the east, and something is trying to spin up in that area. It will be hard to see the progress once the sun sets, but in my opinion we might have a weak LLC established by tomorrow morning. (Not a professional forecast)
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8007 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:32 pm

Ex Emily or what ever you want to call it, is at point where it could a number of things and I would think it's best chance is to creep a little more northward into a moister enviroment. It could also stay as it is a trough and head nw then north along the coast or stay as a very weak system and head basically west with the dry air under the ridge over central US. MY guess is first sernerio.
In the last couple of frames of the 700-850mb steering chart, it looks like the High over the Atlantic wants to bridge over with the High over the middle of the US(death ridge).

Image

watch thwe 5 day loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm2.GIF
Dry air to west of ex Emily
Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8008 Postby storm4u » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:33 pm

a low end tropical storm but nothing more in my opinion before it tracks quickly northeast then east
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Re:

#8009 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:33 pm

KWT wrote:Aric, yep there is some good rotation down there, convection is well displaced to the east though.


yeah pretty typical of this type of system.. as the pressure drops though the convergence will increase around the llc
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#8010 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:34 pm

I actually think its best chance of becoming a decent system is as it exits NE...buit much depends on the shear...seen quite a few systems do well when exiting that way, funnily Bret was one system that fell apart!
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Re: Re:

#8011 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:35 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Putting the loop on and turning on the winds button there is some decent obs pointing towards a surface circ developing S of andros island.


Wouldn't surprise me with all that convergence going on in the area. I think the vortex we were tracking this morning out west got tugged at by all the convection to the east, and something is trying to spin up in that area. It will be hard to see the progress once the sun sets, but in my opinion we might have a weak LLC established by tomorrow morning. (Not a professional forecast)



yeah mentioned that a little while ago. The convection should build westward as time goes on tonight though ..
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Re: Re:

#8012 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
KWT wrote:Aric, yep there is some good rotation down there, convection is well displaced to the east though.


yeah pretty typical of this type of system.. as the pressure drops though the convergence will increase around the llc


Yep, in fact that process seems to be already starting to some extent...

Think Emily maybe about to enter the stage again in some form in the next 24hrs...
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#8013 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:42 pm

looking more impressive with every hour...will make for quite an interesting night to follow...Long range radar out of MIA will come into play as the night wears on...She always did have a thing for firing deep convection during the night..Tonight should be no different...
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#8014 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:43 pm

although looking at Cuban radar ... it appears SE of Andros there is some better rotation with the cells. could end up there as well.. hard to say at this point..

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
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#8015 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:43 pm

Just west of Andros looks very suspect..Anyone else notice???



http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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#8016 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:47 pm

Latest vis always supports possible rotation just west of andros....It appears to me moving w/wnw...I have it at 23.91° N Longitude= 78.37° W
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Re:

#8017 Postby artist » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:48 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:although looking at Cuban radar ... it appears SE of Andros there is some better rotation with the cells. could end up there as well.. hard to say at this point..

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

that is where I have been keeping my eye this afternoon Aric.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8018 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:49 pm

She might have a hard time heading north, I just noticed the pressure is UP a couple of mbs from this time yesterday north of the Bahamas and along the N Fla east coast.
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#8019 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:49 pm

If you speed up the loop the rotation its pretty evident just west of Andros..Also radar suggests rotation...something to watch in the coming hours...May be the last good vis so MIA radar will help...
Last edited by Vortex on Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8020 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:50 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/HS ... 052208.txt

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC FRI AUG 05 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI AUG 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT AUG 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN AUG 07.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC LOW NEAR 23N78W 1011 MB...REMNANTS OF EMILY...MOVING NW
14 KT WITH TROUGH NE TO 27N73W. S OF 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W
SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. S OF 24N BETWEEN 65W
AND 68W E TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N
W OF 69W.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 27N79W
1010 MB WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO 24N80W. N OF 25N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 25N BETWEEN
70W AND 73W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. S OF
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W E TO SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 31N76W
1010 MB WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO 26N79W. WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT
OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 28N BETWEEN
67W AND 72W SW TO W WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

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