ATL: EMILY - Remnants
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There are several vorts that are competing with each other looking at the loops, it never has been able to really develop one solid LLC that didn't have any competition with another area.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
Poll Chance of being upgraded to tropical depression t 11:00?
My guess 25% tonight.
This is exciting!
My guess 25% tonight.
This is exciting!
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Putting the loop on and turning on the winds button there is some decent obs pointing towards a surface circ developing S of andros island.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
bella_may wrote:Dont know about u guys, but im ready to start tracking a new system. Emily or the remants of emily has gotten old! Lol
If you look at the evolution of the Emily remnants over the last six hours, I'd say the party is just getting started.

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Aric, yep there is some good rotation down there, convection is well displaced to the east though.
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:Putting the loop on and turning on the winds button there is some decent obs pointing towards a surface circ developing S of andros island.
Wouldn't surprise me with all that convergence going on in the area. I think the vortex we were tracking this morning out west got tugged at by all the convection to the east, and something is trying to spin up in that area. It will be hard to see the progress once the sun sets, but in my opinion we might have a weak LLC established by tomorrow morning. (Not a professional forecast)
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
Ex Emily or what ever you want to call it, is at point where it could a number of things and I would think it's best chance is to creep a little more northward into a moister enviroment. It could also stay as it is a trough and head nw then north along the coast or stay as a very weak system and head basically west with the dry air under the ridge over central US. MY guess is first sernerio.
In the last couple of frames of the 700-850mb steering chart, it looks like the High over the Atlantic wants to bridge over with the High over the middle of the US(death ridge).

watch thwe 5 day loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm2.GIF
Dry air to west of ex Emily

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In the last couple of frames of the 700-850mb steering chart, it looks like the High over the Atlantic wants to bridge over with the High over the middle of the US(death ridge).
watch thwe 5 day loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm2.GIF
Dry air to west of ex Emily

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
a low end tropical storm but nothing more in my opinion before it tracks quickly northeast then east
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KWT wrote:Aric, yep there is some good rotation down there, convection is well displaced to the east though.
yeah pretty typical of this type of system.. as the pressure drops though the convergence will increase around the llc
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I actually think its best chance of becoming a decent system is as it exits NE...buit much depends on the shear...seen quite a few systems do well when exiting that way, funnily Bret was one system that fell apart!
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Re: Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Putting the loop on and turning on the winds button there is some decent obs pointing towards a surface circ developing S of andros island.
Wouldn't surprise me with all that convergence going on in the area. I think the vortex we were tracking this morning out west got tugged at by all the convection to the east, and something is trying to spin up in that area. It will be hard to see the progress once the sun sets, but in my opinion we might have a weak LLC established by tomorrow morning. (Not a professional forecast)
yeah mentioned that a little while ago. The convection should build westward as time goes on tonight though ..
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Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:KWT wrote:Aric, yep there is some good rotation down there, convection is well displaced to the east though.
yeah pretty typical of this type of system.. as the pressure drops though the convergence will increase around the llc
Yep, in fact that process seems to be already starting to some extent...
Think Emily maybe about to enter the stage again in some form in the next 24hrs...
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although looking at Cuban radar ... it appears SE of Andros there is some better rotation with the cells. could end up there as well.. hard to say at this point..
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
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Just west of Andros looks very suspect..Anyone else notice???
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:although looking at Cuban radar ... it appears SE of Andros there is some better rotation with the cells. could end up there as well.. hard to say at this point..
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
that is where I have been keeping my eye this afternoon Aric.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
She might have a hard time heading north, I just noticed the pressure is UP a couple of mbs from this time yesterday north of the Bahamas and along the N Fla east coast.
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If you speed up the loop the rotation its pretty evident just west of Andros..Also radar suggests rotation...something to watch in the coming hours...May be the last good vis so MIA radar will help...
Last edited by Vortex on Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/HS ... 052208.txt
HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC FRI AUG 05 2011
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
SECURITE
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI AUG 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT AUG 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN AUG 07.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC LOW NEAR 23N78W 1011 MB...REMNANTS OF EMILY...MOVING NW
14 KT WITH TROUGH NE TO 27N73W. S OF 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W
SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. S OF 24N BETWEEN 65W
AND 68W E TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N
W OF 69W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 27N79W
1010 MB WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO 24N80W. N OF 25N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 25N BETWEEN
70W AND 73W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. S OF
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W E TO SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 31N76W
1010 MB WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO 26N79W. WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT
OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 28N BETWEEN
67W AND 72W SW TO W WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC FRI AUG 05 2011
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
SECURITE
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI AUG 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT AUG 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN AUG 07.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC LOW NEAR 23N78W 1011 MB...REMNANTS OF EMILY...MOVING NW
14 KT WITH TROUGH NE TO 27N73W. S OF 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W
SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. S OF 24N BETWEEN 65W
AND 68W E TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N
W OF 69W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 27N79W
1010 MB WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO 24N80W. N OF 25N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 25N BETWEEN
70W AND 73W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. S OF
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W E TO SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 31N76W
1010 MB WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO 26N79W. WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT
OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 28N BETWEEN
67W AND 72W SW TO W WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
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