Significant changes taking place over our system N of DR

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Vortex
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Significant changes taking place over our system N of DR

#1 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:20 pm

Over the last several hours shear has decreased significantly. Also, there appears to be some sort of circulation about 70 miles N of the DR coast and remains basically stationary at this time. Banding on the east side is noted and the linear look earlier is now taking on more of an "arc" appearance suggesting shear is relaxing. If this trend continues tommorrow may make for a very interesting day....
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#2 Postby Colin » Tue Aug 26, 2003 11:00 pm

Hmmmm...I can't wait until tomorrow...WOOHOOOO! :D
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DR

#3 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 27, 2003 6:36 am

One other big change is that the convection is almost all gone now. Careful trying to find an LLC at night without plotting all the surface obs around the area. Still looks like just a sheared wave with less chance of developing now. As a matter of fact, the SOUTHERN part of the wave appears to be developing - over Panama!
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#4 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 27, 2003 9:24 am

Yes, indeed the southern part of that wave near Panama is exploding with convection.

JB says this heat source (southern part of the tropical wave) will move northwest and combine with the Hispanola wave/remnants of TD#9 to create a possible threat to the western Gulf coast in the next week.

With the NAO going strongly negative, he also believes a monster ridge will be developing in the western Atlantic and preventing much recurvature.

Lots of ifs, ands, and maybes ... story of this year so far I guess.
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Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 27, 2003 10:00 am

Yep if and buts are the story so far this season. :roll: Will be interesting to see what happens!!! :wink:
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