ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[dixiebreeze]

Entirely possible we get an upgrade as early as 11pm back to TD...OR may go straight to TS on the 5am package..

That reasoning has some credibility judging by the much improved status of Emily redux plus the 8 p.m. update.

[GCANE]

I was wondering if this had anything to do with Emily's sudden and dramatic collapse. It would seem plausible. Solar flares have a large effect on the ionosphere. What effect would all that charging have on rain storms and clouds in a hurricane? I'm thinking about both the height of the ionosphere and those mysterious sprites over thunderstorms.

I really know nothing about it, but it is interesting.

Actually, all week long Emily's intensity almost precisely seemed to be modulated by the effect of the ionosphere being heated over her due to solar x-ray activity.

Thanks for noticing.

[sponger]

Cantore, yes the weather channel still does some current weather) said regardless of development most of the moisture would be west of the circulation and cause a wet weekend for SFL Not sure why that would be the case but Florida could always use the rain. Regardless the surf is already showing. Go the the surf station report for pictures

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWD Special Feature.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IN THE FORM OF A 1012 MB LOW IS NEAR
23N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS ANALYZED
FROM 28N74W TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 23N78W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 22N80W 19N82W TO 16N82W.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD
AREA BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLC WATERS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN
70W-80W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 8-10 KT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

[SFLcane]

interesting they did not mention florida at all.. lol

Cause this isn't moving toward SFL in my opinion. We may see some moisture from it but that's all she wrote in terms of SFL.

[KWT]

Continues to improve in overall organization..

Yep conditions look good IMO for reformation to occur within the next 24hrs...lets see if Emily can pull another trick!

[floridasun78]

anyone know what direction these Miami webcams face?
http://www.miamiandbeaches.com/visitors/beachcam.asp

it facing south beach

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

They changed from WV to LO.

AL, 05, 2011080600, , BEST, 0, 228N, 772W, 30, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[SouthDadeFish]

00z Best Track

They changed from WV to LO.

AL, 05, 2011080600, , BEST, 0, 228N, 772W, 30, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

that puts the "center" under the batch of convection.

[gatorcane]

Cantore, yes the weather channel still does some current weather) said regardless of development most of the moisture would be west of the circulation and cause a wet weekend for SFL Not sure why that would be the case but Florida could always use the rain. Regardless the surf is already showing. Go the the surf station report for pictures

I commented earlier on this. It's because the upper-level winds are blowing out of the E and ENE...that should push some energy to the west side of the Low...

You can see the clouds to the north of this sytem blowing off to the East over Florida and north of the Bahamas...

[artist]

00z Best Track

They changed from WV to LO.

AL, 05, 2011080600, , BEST, 0, 228N, 772W, 30, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

soooo, they think it is a low again. As we have been suspecting. lol Wish we could get recon in there earlier.

[summersquall]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/HS ... 052208.txt

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC FRI AUG 05 2011

24 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 27N79W1010 MB WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO 24N80W. N OF 25N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 25N BETWEEN
70W AND 73W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. S OF
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W E TO SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

Here's a link for a Jensen Beach webcam. A good soaking rain would be would be a Godsend but those coordinates are mighty close! Emily is certainly a tenacious lady.

http://www.evsmartin.com/martin.htm#Wea ... Web%20Page

[Aric Dunn]

Well considering the 300 and 200 mb wind flow it is likely that a lot more moisture will be over florida than is forecast at the moment.. also the main moisture is still moving wnw towards florida seen in the mimic. and all you have to do is look at the progress of of the convection over the central bahamas to see the trend..

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 060009
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0009 UTC SAT AUG 6 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE EMILY (AL052011) 20110806 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110806  0000   110806  1200   110807  0000   110807  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.8N  77.2W   24.5N  78.8W   26.0N  79.5W   27.1N  79.8W
BAMD    22.8N  77.2W   23.8N  78.7W   24.8N  80.3W   25.5N  81.5W
BAMM    22.8N  77.2W   24.1N  78.7W   25.2N  79.9W   26.1N  80.7W
LBAR    22.8N  77.2W   23.7N  78.7W   24.9N  80.1W   25.9N  81.2W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          44KTS          47KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          44KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110808  0000   110809  0000   110810  0000   110811  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.2N  78.7W   29.7N  73.9W   31.3N  65.6W   31.1N  58.9W
BAMD    26.2N  82.5W   27.4N  83.7W   28.4N  82.9W   27.7N  80.8W
BAMM    26.7N  80.9W   27.6N  80.4W   28.3N  78.5W   29.8N  74.8W
LBAR    27.0N  81.6W   29.0N  80.8W   30.4N  77.4W   33.4N  70.4W
SHIP        48KTS          52KTS          51KTS          43KTS
DSHP        48KTS          52KTS          51KTS          43KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  22.8N LONCUR =  77.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  21.9N LONM12 =  76.1W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  20.0N LONM24 =  73.8W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[mutley]

Well considering the 300 and 200 mb wind flow it is likely that a lot more moisture will be over florida than is forecast at the moment.. also the main moisture is still moving wnw towards florida seen in the mimic. and all you have to do is look at the progress of of the convection over the central bahamas to see the trend..

Could someone please post a link to the mimic?

[cycloneye]

Is not entirely stationary.

LATCUR = 22.8N LONCUR = 77.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

[jlauderdal]

anyone know what direction these Miami webcams face?
http://www.miamiandbeaches.com/visitors/beachcam.asp

it facing south beach

nope, its facing NE

[WilmingtonSandbar]

one wonders if Gcane and TAD are one and the same?

[TheBurn]

Could someone please post a link to the mimic?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[wzrgirl1]

one wonders if Gcane and TAD are one and the same?

Totally hysterical because I was thinking the same thing.