WPAC: MERBOK - Tropical Storm

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[euro6208]

yall dont need any new storms right now! Muifa is enough for the whole season.

i wish! we still have 90 percent of august left and sept,oct,nov,and dec before it's all done. so far, 12 tropical cyclones have develop. this season is like every season. we are used to it

[Fyzn94]

JMA has upgraded Merbok to a Severe Tropical Storm.

[KWT]

yall dont need any new storms right now! Muifa is enough for the whole season.

i wish! we still have 90 percent of august left and sept,oct,nov,and dec before it's all done. so far, 12 tropical cyclones have develop. this season is like every season. we are used to it

Yeah, most seasons are like 2005 was for the Atlan tic, and some El nino seaons would make Atl.2005 season look like small fry!

As has been saud it is a severe TS, I think thats probably the right call as well, still expect it to become a TY some point soon.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 27.7N 154.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 29.8N 153.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 071800UTC 31.5N 153.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 081800UTC 35.1N 156.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[HURAKAN]

looks close or at typhoon intensity

[HURAKAN]

05/2030 UTC 27.5N 154.1E T4.0/4.0 MERBOK -- West Pacific

65 knots

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 28.1N 154.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 30.3N 153.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 080000UTC 33.1N 155.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 090000UTC 36.9N 159.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[Chacor]

60 kt from JTWC at 0300. Sure looks like a typhoon though.

[HURAKAN]

beutiful-looking storm

[Chacor]

That has to be a typhoon, no way that's only 60 kt from JTWC/50 kt from JMA.

[HURAKAN]

impressive system

[Macrocane]

Merbok has shallow convection maybe that's the reason why they didn't go with typhoon intensity, anyway the microwave and visible don't lie and it looks like a typhoon.

[euro6208]

T4.0/4.0 MERBOK

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 962.5mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.1 5.5

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



looks like merbok rapidly intensified.

i would place the intensity at 95 knots based on all data. truly underestimated

[Chacor]

Remember that ADT is highly unreliable for a high proportion of storms.

[KWT]

I'd certainly have gone with a TY with this system at the moment, similar Atlantic hurricanes tends to come in at something like 70-75kts, so thats what I'd go.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 29.0N 153.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 31.3N 154.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 080600UTC 33.6N 156.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 090600UTC 38.2N 161.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Someone tell JMA that's not a 50 kt STS.

JTWC upgraded:
WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 013
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 28.7N 154.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 154.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.8N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 30.8N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 31.8N 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 33.0N 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.0N 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 43.1N 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 52.0N 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 154.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS TY 12W HAS INTENSIFIED AND BEGUN TO RECURVE AND TRACK ALONG A
MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY. A 06/0734Z 91 GHZ SSMIS SHOWS A RAGGED
MICROWAVE EYE HAS FORMED WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVEMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. 06/00Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 12W LIES NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND
NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
TY 12W HAS IMPROVING EASTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 12W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND BEGIN
RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 36 AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IMPROVED OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW TO MODERATE VWS
WILL ALLOW TY MERBOK TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER
THIS POINT, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WESTERLIES AND DECREASED SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) AROUND TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR,
WHICH IS STRUGGLING TO FORECAST THE RECURVING SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 29.3N 153.7E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 31.6N 154.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 081200UTC 35.2N 158.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 091200UTC 40.2N 162.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[KWT]

65kts maybe a touch on the low side but at least they are on the right line with this system IMO.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 29.3N 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 153.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.4N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.5N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.2N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.0N 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 39.9N 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 45.3N 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 153.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK)
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
SHOWS TY 12W HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AS WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF A RAGGED EYE.
A 06/0922Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVEMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS.
06/00Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 12W LIES
NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TY 12W HAS GOOD POLEWARD
AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
2. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RECURVING AROUND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE, AND VWS REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE. AFTER
TAU 36 TY MERBOK WILL ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASING NORTH OF 33N AND VWS INCREASING AS
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INCREASE.
C. BY TAU 72, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR,
WHICH CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE FORECASTING THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
EGRR ERRORS AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.//
NNNN