ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8141 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:16 pm

umguy wrote:I wanna go outside and see if i can see an Aurora. They are reporting being able to see them in the middle latitudes. Before the clouds of whatever is coming this way gets too thick.


You won't see them here. If the storm were THAT strong to bring the aurora down to 26N, you probably wouldn't be on the internet as the geosync sats would be down, power grids would be freaking out, and there would be virutally no radio communications, including OTA radio and TV.
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#8142 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:22 pm

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/sc ... ceweather/

Here is what happens during the worst space weather imaginable.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8143 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:26 pm

Ok,let's return to the topic on hand and that is about the Remnants of Emily,thank you.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8144 Postby gone2beach » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:27 pm

And she is still playing games at night.....

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
INDICATE THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
EMILY HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE SURFACE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8145 Postby Macrocane » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:34 pm

jinftl wrote:Probably a dumb question but here goes, if this organized into a named storm would it be named Emily or Franklin?

Reason I ask is because as of last discussion on Emily Thursday at 5pm edt, the NHC said the system dissipated:

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI


I understand that if the LLC dissipates it would be considered another system so it would be Franklin although it's obvious that it is the remains of Emily so it's an interesting question, I would like to know the answer too :oops:
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#8146 Postby SeminoleWind » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:34 pm

not sure if this has been asked yet or not but is this now not an invest, and if not i wonder why not?
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#8147 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:34 pm

Does anybody else notice warming cloud tops and the land based convective stuff off the NE coast of Cuba subsiding? And the formerly vigorous convection waning a bit?
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#8148 Postby crimi481 » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:44 pm

The "Circle" of high pressure over mid south states (rhe "Shredder" last several systems close to Gulf- and to the last recent one)

Shreds -then remnents drawn to outer edge of that "circle" - sending energy up and around - to Mid west states - with exploding storms/floods This happening since last summer started. Many of past storms shredded just 12-18 hours after NHC forecast strenghtening.

I do not know "why" this happens - bit only watched it happen 6-8 times (last 2 summers_
Is it being entrained now? (from its s.w.)
Circle Shredder loop.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash
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Re:

#8149 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:44 pm

SeminoleWind wrote:not sure if this has been asked yet or not but is this now not an invest, and if not i wonder why not?


It's being tracked as "05L", or the former Emily.

This is not a new or separate entity, since many of the former moving parts from Emily are trekking along in the central Bahamas tonight.
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Re: Re:

#8150 Postby SeminoleWind » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:47 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
SeminoleWind wrote:not sure if this has been asked yet or not but is this now not an invest, and if not i wonder why not?


It's being tracked as "05L", or the former Emily.

This is not a new or separate entity, since many of the former moving parts from Emily are trekking along in the central Bahamas tonight.


oh, gotcha thanks
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Re:

#8151 Postby SeminoleWind » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:48 pm

crimi481 wrote:The "Circle" of high pressure over mid south states (rhe "Shredder" last several systems close to Gulf- and to the last recent one)

Shreds -then remnents drawn to outer edge of that "circle" - sending energy up and around - to Mid west states - with exploding storms/floods This happening since last summer started. Many of past storms shredded just 12-18 hours after NHC forecast strenghtening.

I do not know "why" this happens - bit only watched it happen 6-8 times (last 2 summers_
Is it being entrained now? (from its s.w.)
Circle Shredder loop.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash


awesome link thanks
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8152 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:53 pm

Convection really dying tonight, just on cue as wxman57 rained on the South Floridians' parades.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8153 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:57 pm

Experience has shown that when a TC passes east of Florida, we are generally left high and dry for the most part. There will be some enhancement of shower activity on Saturday,but not any kind of prolonged deluge kind of rains that last for more than 12 hours, which is TPC's criterion for mentioning 'heavy rain's in there TWOs.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8154 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:21 pm

Macrocane wrote:
jinftl wrote:Probably a dumb question but here goes, if this organized into a named storm would it be named Emily or Franklin?

Reason I ask is because as of last discussion on Emily Thursday at 5pm edt, the NHC said the system dissipated:

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI


I understand that if the LLC dissipates it would be considered another system so it would be Franklin although it's obvious that it is the remains of Emily so it's an interesting question, I would like to know the answer too :oops:


This will interest you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ivan
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8155 Postby artist » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:40 pm

latest image from ghcc and good night all!

Image
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#8156 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:57 pm

Pretty quiet in here for a code red 70% off the coast of Florida... Convection is starting to vanish again.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8157 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:Surface obs from SE FL to Andros to northern Cuba still don't indicate much there. Very little to cause convergence so that convection will persist in an area. Not much chance of any development as it passes Miami tomorrow morning. All the squalls should remain mostly offshore and across the Bahamas. By Sunday, the remnants should be turning NE and heading out to sea. Latest model guidance indicates an even sharper NE turn.


As always. :notworthy:
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#8158 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:25 pm

Strange thing is that surface pressures if anything have been going up all day in that area, indicative that the weak rotation that we saw form today may not turn out to be anything after all. Emily might have given us one last false alarm.
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#8159 Postby crimi481 » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:40 pm

Emily has too many issues
Dylan tune, "Just like a woman"
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8160 Postby lester » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:48 pm

artist wrote:latest image from ghcc and good night all!

Image


the wave formerly known as emily looks like a mess imho
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