ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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caneman

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8181 Postby caneman » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:14 am

KWT wrote:
caneman wrote:Run a visible loop and you can't help but notice a serious increase in low level cloud flow/build up. Is today the day??


I'd wait for the true vis imagery to come through before getting a good idea where the low level flow is at...certainly looks better then it did 6hrs ago, but then again its Dmax, what do you expect!


Yep, I know. Not looking at that as much as the size and scope of increased cloud coverage.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8182 Postby mutley » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:27 am

artist wrote:
mutley wrote:Will the blob be over the gulf stream sometime today?

it is getting real close. Probably this afternoon is my guess.


With a 60% chance of regenerating in the next 48 hours, in very warm water, moving over the gulf stream, and upper air conducive, you would think that she would at least attempt to muscle up one last time. A TD today perhaps?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8183 Postby artist » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:34 am

current visible from ghcc -
Image
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#8184 Postby artist » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:35 am

does anyone have a current map with the convergence?
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#8185 Postby storm92405 » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:38 am

Looks like a deffinate center due east of Miami on the radar with a westerly movement.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8186 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:38 am

Good shot of the first visible image of the day:

Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8187 Postby cpdaman » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:40 am

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#8188 Postby caneman » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:41 am

Definitely looks to be moving West according to Radar. Looks like after all it could make it to the Gulf. Just great headed for the Keys in a couple of days.
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#8189 Postby caneman » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:41 am

Definitely looks to be moving West according to Radar. Looks like after all it could make it to the Gulf. Just great headed for the Keys in a couple of days.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8190 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:41 am

70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY.
THERE IS HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL...AND DO NOT FAVOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN



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#8191 Postby cpdaman » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:43 am

low shear decent low level convergence....decent upper level divergence (centered/bulls eye about 40 miles SE of low level convergence)
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#8192 Postby caneman » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:44 am

Looks West and or NW to me but hey what do I know.
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Re: ATL: Ex EMILY - Recon

#8193 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:45 am

From 8 AM TWO:

AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.


They didn't include the words " If Neccessary" so is a go for recon to fly this afternoon with departure at 11:00 AM EDT.
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Re:

#8194 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:46 am

artist wrote:does anyone have a current map with the convergence?


Here you go
Image
link
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8195 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:48 am

What are the chances MIA sees any nasty weather from this, this evening? We have plans with friends, but don't really care to go if the weather is at all nasty out. I know NHC says conditions bad for northern Bahamas, though couple posters say they're seeing a westerly movement, and that was in the Key West discussion as well. Thanks y'all!
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Re:

#8196 Postby artist » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:51 am

caneman wrote:Looks West and or NW to me but hey what do I know.

I would think this suggests it is moving around 310-320, maybe even a little bit higher. Or more towards Miami
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... p200Km.gif
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Re:

#8197 Postby mutley » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:52 am

caneman wrote:Definitely looks to be moving West according to Radar. Looks like after all it could make it to the Gulf. Just great headed for the Keys in a couple of days.


If you look at this animated loop, and the last couple frames, it seems like a part Emily's moisture will be heading NE and out to sea. But it also looks like it left some moisture and some spin behind, backing up what is seen on radar.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8198 Postby maxx9512 » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:52 am

I wake up today STILL watching this! This system continues to do nothing it was forecasted to do. Its really annoying and yet I still track it. Amazing!
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Re: ATL: Ex EMILY - Recon

#8199 Postby artist » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:55 am

cycloneye wrote:From 8 AM TWO:

AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.


They didn't include the words " If Neccessary" so is a go for recon to fly this afternoon with departure at 11:00 AM EDT.

Yay! Thanks cycloneye.
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#8200 Postby HurricaneBrain » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:55 am

Chances increase and it looks to be moving west? Crazy storm. :double:
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