ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[mutley]

I can see a weak low center about 90 miles due east of Miami

Good news. Keeps the interest going a bit longer. Thanks for the info.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 061229
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC SAT AUG 6 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE EMILY (AL052011) 20110806 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110806  1200   110807  0000   110807  1200   110808  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.6N  78.0W   27.6N  78.4W   29.1N  77.9W   30.4N  75.5W
BAMD    25.6N  78.0W   26.8N  79.0W   27.9N  79.4W   28.7N  79.0W
BAMM    25.6N  78.0W   27.1N  78.8W   28.4N  78.9W   29.4N  77.5W
LBAR    25.6N  78.0W   27.1N  78.8W   28.5N  79.0W   29.5N  78.5W
SHIP        30KTS          31KTS          34KTS          38KTS
DSHP        30KTS          31KTS          34KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110808  1200   110809  1200   110810  1200   110811  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    31.1N  71.8W   31.2N  60.7W   30.3N  51.7W   31.6N  46.2W
BAMD    29.2N  78.0W   30.4N  74.2W   32.5N  67.8W   35.1N  59.6W
BAMM    29.9N  75.2W   30.5N  67.8W   30.3N  60.5W   29.0N  57.2W
LBAR    30.5N  76.6W   31.8N  70.4W   33.4N  63.6W   36.3N  56.7W
SHIP        42KTS          49KTS          55KTS          52KTS
DSHP        42KTS          49KTS          55KTS          52KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  25.6N LONCUR =  78.0W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  23.7N LONM12 =  77.5W DIRM12 = 336DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  21.9N LONM24 =  76.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[caneman]

I can see a weak low center about 90 miles due east of Miami near 25.5N/78.2W, which is about 30 miles NW of Andros Island. Very, very weak rotation evident in surface obs, less than 10 kts. It's moving northward just as forecast. Most squalls should pass east of Florida today. It will turn out to sea to the NE tomorrow.

And that Sir is why we pay you the big bucks

[NDG]

Suspected LLC appears to be a little tighter than yesterday, surface pressures in the NW Bahamas are a little lower this morning but still high around 1012-1014mb, but the surface environment around her is fairly high with a 1020 mb ridge just east of the Bahamas.
I am just wondering if the recon this afternoon will find any winds strong enough to get her classified back up to a TD.
Nassau has been reporting light southerly winds all morning long.
Deeper convection will have to get going all morning long before the Recon gets there.

[cpdaman]

12z Best Track

AL, 05, 2011080612, , BEST, 0, 256N, 780W, 30, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

and look at the previous co-ordinates. this thing just turned DUE North and is following the wx forecast

[robbielyn]

wnw motion 79w and 23.9n way actually looks west now if this cont. it could get into the gulf its nt headed towards miami not yet but if steering currents change then it could still go east i guess.

Ok well i guess i was talking about the mlc vs the llc. man sometimes i get them confused when looking at them. how does one tell by looking at vis what is mlc vs llc? please educate me. thank you

i edited vs quote. sry just waking up

[mutley]

The rotation is pretty evident now on radar, but I wonder if there's any on the surface?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[NDG]

A lot of cruise ships in the area, should see some reports from them as the low pressure moves over them. But so far they are only reporting winds in the upper teen knot.

[KWT]

You can see Wxman57's position of the low very neatly on the hugh resolution, its very easy to spot, on the northern part of the convection.

[gatorcane]

We wont even get a rainshower out of this storm here in S Florida,its amazing how close it is and we wont get affected by her.

I don't know. It's going to be a close call. Won't take much to bring some of that to the SE Coast of Florida and i still see the convection growing westward.

Winds at 200MB to 300MB as you move northward are still at out of the E so should push convection to the west side of the low.

Looks like it should become named again and will up my chances for redevelopment to 90% at this point.

[NDG]

Zoomed radar loop, 130 miles E of Miami.

[mutley]

You can see Wxman57's position of the low very neatly on the hugh resolution, its very easy to spot, on the northern part of the convection.

Looks like convection has started increasing as well.

[summersquall]

Bright blue cloudless sky and dead calm here in Jensen Beach this morning. Looks like I'll be doing some exterior house painting today. But I guess that beats screwing plywood over my windows and breaking out the candles and canned goods.

Definately could have used the precip though.

Oh Emily ...so close, yet so far.

[cycloneye]

12z Tracks



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[tailgater]

12z Best Track

AL, 05, 2011080612, , BEST, 0, 256N, 780W, 30, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

and look at the previous co-ordinates. this thing just turned DUE North and is following the wx forecast

I personally don't think they had found a definite low center, this one looks like it might dominate but there are still a few other swirls out there.
The one east of Maimi I've been watching most of the morning and it's motion has been SSW abiet very slowly, watch the loop of about 4 or 5 hours.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=5

[gatorcane]

What's that BAMM doing......

It's not letting Emily get out of here that easily...

[hurricanefloyd5]

Zoomed radar loop, 130 miles E of Miami.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/AMX.N0Z ... .35_an.gif

looks like its moving westward

[SouthFloridawx]

12z Best Track

AL, 05, 2011080612, , BEST, 0, 256N, 780W, 30, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

and look at the previous co-ordinates. this thing just turned DUE North and is following the wx forecast

I personally don't think they had found a definite low center, this one looks like it might dominate but there are still a few other swirls out there.
The one east of Maimi I've been watching most of the morning and it's motion has been SSW abiet very slowly, watch the loop of about 4 or 5 hours.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=5

Yep, looks pretty stationary on that loop there.

[KWT]

I suspect the westward motion may be an illusion of the convection beginning to wrap around the center of circulation for the first time...

We'll have to wait and see!

[SouthFloridawx]

Perhaps just consolidating, giving it the appearance of a westward movement?