ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Here is todays TCPOD for Sunday and there will be only one mission left after this afternoons
flight. Look at the header that I highlighted.

NOUS42 KNHC 061530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 06 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM EMILY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 1505A EMILY
C. 07/1500Z
D. 30.5N 75.2W
E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE

[crimi481]

Center seems to be getting better organized - movement more west than anything else, from this Sat loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-bd.html

That "tounge"/protrusion ( the N.E. Quadrant) -I believe is that "other Low" that has been connected to main low -from the start. ( both been fighting each other) Emily's signature look

[maxx9512]

Looking at the Carib. visable loop it looks to be moving closer to Fl.
Is that just the cloud tops blowing off in that direction?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

[SouthDadeFish]

That's very interesting Cyclone, I wonder if it was just a typo or what? Maybe they expect to find a tropical storm today.

[tolakram]

I think Emily is gone, squished and carried out to sea. Whatever that good looking blob is must be an imposter.

Live loop:


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[SouthDadeFish]

From Miami NWS:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 061430
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR LOOP SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS...JUST EAST OF
OUR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS STREAMING
OVER THE AREA. RECENTLY ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FLARE NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -80 AND THE
COVERAGE SLOWLY EXPANDING WEST INTO OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE BAHAMAS...THE LOCAL FLOW WILL
STEADILY BACK TOWARD THE WESTERLY DIRECTION. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. 85/AG

[SouthDadeFish]

CIMSS suggesting convergence and divergence is increasing, and the 850mb vorticity doesn't look too elongated either.

[Frank2]

To my eye it appears a weak LLC is southeast of Grand Bahama Island and moving northward, while a MCC is southwest of the LLC and is drifting west - not exactly "getting better organized"...

[artist]

Bimini Islands have a calm wind which is located just a tad northwest of Andros Island. 29.97 Pressure

I see the only wx station through wunderground reporting NW to W winds all morning long, currently out of the west.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IBIMINIA2

yeah, NDG, I got that from the BAhamas met page and noticed they did not have any time on it at all, so it could very well be iffy

[floridasun78]

here in miami it sunny with some passing cloudy

[NDG]

CIMSS suggesting convergence and divergence is increasing, and the 850mb vorticity doesn't look too elongated either.

Yeah, compared to late last night and the very early morning, is better.

[SouthDadeFish]

The clouds field is getting blown to the west because of easterly shear. I believe the center is still moving NNW.

[SouthDadeFish]

Why hasn't recon taken off yet?

[NDG]

Windshear not too bad according to UW-CIMSS, but I can tell now NE shear now starting to affect the northern squadrant of the system by looking at the sat loop.

[cycloneye]

Why hasn't recon taken off yet?

I am speculating here,but maybe plane may depart from a closer base than Biloxi or St Croix.

[Kory]

Shear is making it appear it is moving west, but its truly moving to the N or NNW.

[SouthDadeFish]

Why hasn't recon taken off yet?

I am speculating here,but maybe plane may depart from a closer base than Biloxi or St Croix.

Don't they have one in Tampa?

[crimi481]

Stalled
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[CourierPR]

Shear is making it appear it is moving west, but its truly moving to the N or NNW.

I think it's actually moving NW.

[NDG]

Latest radar loop, appears to be moving NW or NNW, very slowly.