DAY 7 - For the 3rd run in a row, the EURO develops our CV system and makes it into a hurricane ... furthermore, tonight's Day 7 run poses some interesting questions for another potential system to impact TX ...
Sunday night's GFS and Canadian Ensembles hinted at the same ...
Tonight, unfortunately the NCEP supercomputer has overheated and is still down ... data initialization has been quite good, but without the supercomputer the 00z and 06z runs will be quite late (or unavailable) ...
Day 6-7 U.S. View ... Look out Texas???
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
Furthermore, for the 3rd night in a row ... here's our CV wave depicted ...
Day 7 ..
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
EURO also picking up on 3 other PAC systems including a BOMB between Hawaii and Mexico ...
EURO getting on the tropical bandwagon and LOOK OUT TX!!
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Stormsfury
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Stormsfury
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Ticka, the EURO is by far the best medium range model and when it locks onto a scenario and doesn't stray from it for days on out, you can generally take it to the bank ... this is the first time, I've seen the TC off of the TX coast on this new run ...
... So watch a few things ....
1) Consistency with future model runs
2) Other model support (other models coming together on a solution)
3) The CV wave already has tremendous model support except from the UKMET (which is out to lunch, IMO)
... I'm not saying that this will happen, but remember Tropical Storm Bill? ... the EURO Day 5 had the general idea of a TC landfalling in Louisiana while other models took it into Florida ... the EURO never strayed, and the ETA was very close with the EURO ... within the 84 hour range (which became the winning hand)... in the next runs, the other models swung around to the EURO/ETA solution and the consensus was born ...
Stay tuned ... The EURO does not honk very often and doesn't predict phantom tropical cyclones ... in fact, it generally misses a few, and the ones it picks up on, develop more than not (not like the GFS...
)
SF
... So watch a few things ....
1) Consistency with future model runs
2) Other model support (other models coming together on a solution)
3) The CV wave already has tremendous model support except from the UKMET (which is out to lunch, IMO)
... I'm not saying that this will happen, but remember Tropical Storm Bill? ... the EURO Day 5 had the general idea of a TC landfalling in Louisiana while other models took it into Florida ... the EURO never strayed, and the ETA was very close with the EURO ... within the 84 hour range (which became the winning hand)... in the next runs, the other models swung around to the EURO/ETA solution and the consensus was born ...
Stay tuned ... The EURO does not honk very often and doesn't predict phantom tropical cyclones ... in fact, it generally misses a few, and the ones it picks up on, develop more than not (not like the GFS...
)
SF
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Anonymous
IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion 11:00 PM EDT, August 26, 2003
General Pattern: Conditions are favorable for tropical cyclone development across much of the Atlantic Basin. An upper level trough is enhancing shear in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas. The rest of the Basin is being dominated by high pressure in the upper levels.
Gulf of Mexico: The Gulf of Mexico isn't the most favorable area for development this evening. An upper low just west of Florida is enhancing shear in the southern Gulf. Model guidance shows this uppper low moving into Louisiana and dissipating. An upper level ridge is expected to replace this low. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for development in 3-5 days.
Things begin to get complicated later in the period. The European shows a broad area of low pressure exiting the Yucatan in three days. Some of this energy may actually be related to the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. The Canadian model clearly shows energy associated with the tropical wave in the Caribbean moving into the central Gulf. The low exiting the Yucatan and some of the energy moving into the central Gulf from the Caribbean may make things a bit interesting in the central Gulf late this week or during the weekend. A weakness in the atmosphere will allow anything that develops in the central Gulf to move towards the Gulf Coast. So this area will need to be watched closely.
Caribbean Sea: The tropical wave moving across Hispaniola has shown no signs of development. Last night I mentioned that if the wave continued to move WNW development would be unlikely. The wave is still moving WNW and development is being inhibited by land. A number of the models insist on a northerly track north of the Bahamas. This is highly unlikely due to a persistent area of high pressure near the surface over the western Atlantic and the southeast. the low level flow south of this high will force anything near the Greater Antilles into the Gulf of Mexico. You can see this just by looking at the bulk of the convection moving more westerly on the infrared animation. Even if a low were to try to form north of Hispaniola, an upper trough is still producing 30-40 knots of shear in the Bahamas. Development from this wave is not expected over the next few days due to land interaction. If development were to occur, it would likely happen in the Gulf of Mexico. Read the Gulf of Mexico section for more details.
Atlantic Basin: Convection associated with a strong tropical wave near 25W has increased this evening. Upper level winds are condusive for slow development. SHIPS is forecasting a 78 knot hurricane in 120 hours. Several models are also forecasting significant development. A west-northwest track is expected to continue, bringing would could be Fabian near or just north of Puerto Rico in a week. The models have been shifting further south, so all residents in the Lesser Antilles should pay close attention to this system.
The negative phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be moving into the Basin rather soon. We could easily see a number of classified systems over the next week or so...not that an increase in activity wasn't aready expected due to climatology.
For a basic and general rundown, refer to our tropical weather outlook. These are unofficial products, and are not from the NHC.
Forecaster: Moreland
General Pattern: Conditions are favorable for tropical cyclone development across much of the Atlantic Basin. An upper level trough is enhancing shear in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas. The rest of the Basin is being dominated by high pressure in the upper levels.
Gulf of Mexico: The Gulf of Mexico isn't the most favorable area for development this evening. An upper low just west of Florida is enhancing shear in the southern Gulf. Model guidance shows this uppper low moving into Louisiana and dissipating. An upper level ridge is expected to replace this low. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for development in 3-5 days.
Things begin to get complicated later in the period. The European shows a broad area of low pressure exiting the Yucatan in three days. Some of this energy may actually be related to the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. The Canadian model clearly shows energy associated with the tropical wave in the Caribbean moving into the central Gulf. The low exiting the Yucatan and some of the energy moving into the central Gulf from the Caribbean may make things a bit interesting in the central Gulf late this week or during the weekend. A weakness in the atmosphere will allow anything that develops in the central Gulf to move towards the Gulf Coast. So this area will need to be watched closely.
Caribbean Sea: The tropical wave moving across Hispaniola has shown no signs of development. Last night I mentioned that if the wave continued to move WNW development would be unlikely. The wave is still moving WNW and development is being inhibited by land. A number of the models insist on a northerly track north of the Bahamas. This is highly unlikely due to a persistent area of high pressure near the surface over the western Atlantic and the southeast. the low level flow south of this high will force anything near the Greater Antilles into the Gulf of Mexico. You can see this just by looking at the bulk of the convection moving more westerly on the infrared animation. Even if a low were to try to form north of Hispaniola, an upper trough is still producing 30-40 knots of shear in the Bahamas. Development from this wave is not expected over the next few days due to land interaction. If development were to occur, it would likely happen in the Gulf of Mexico. Read the Gulf of Mexico section for more details.
Atlantic Basin: Convection associated with a strong tropical wave near 25W has increased this evening. Upper level winds are condusive for slow development. SHIPS is forecasting a 78 knot hurricane in 120 hours. Several models are also forecasting significant development. A west-northwest track is expected to continue, bringing would could be Fabian near or just north of Puerto Rico in a week. The models have been shifting further south, so all residents in the Lesser Antilles should pay close attention to this system.
The negative phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be moving into the Basin rather soon. We could easily see a number of classified systems over the next week or so...not that an increase in activity wasn't aready expected due to climatology.
For a basic and general rundown, refer to our tropical weather outlook. These are unofficial products, and are not from the NHC.
Forecaster: Moreland
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mf_dolphin
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mf_dolphin
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Tx Threat......Models......Wrong 90% of Time
I do not see it.....no way. Until there is an organizing system headed into the GOM or development occuring in the GOM, I wont believe it there is a true threat. I have watched the models flip-flop daily for weeks as well as each hurricane season. Models are just models....a long range forecast based on a picture of current atmosphere (that is always changing ;()
True consistency is the key but where the true development. A cluster thunderstorms with a TW? Many false alarms and no major developement.
Perhaps thinks will change but no threat on the horizon in the very near future.
True consistency is the key but where the true development. A cluster thunderstorms with a TW? Many false alarms and no major developement.
Perhaps thinks will change but no threat on the horizon in the very near future.
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Sf do you realize how late I will be up checking all of this out??? Gee Thanks!!!! We do need the rain, but... One of our local OCM's has been talking about this for two days, but I am not too sure how close he has been looking at the models and he hasn't indicated the name(s) of the model(s) he is referring to.
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southerngale wrote:Great David, I'll check back in a little bit to see what you found out after checking things out.
Btw...which OCM mentioned this?
Frank Billingsley has been mentioning it for 2 days, relating it to the wave near Hispaniola. I am getting ready to check out all the models I can find because there still isn't any concensus that I have seem on this particular wave.
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JetMaxx
If everyone wants to REALLY speculate into the future -- check this out...the 00z GFS forecast map for 7 p.m. EST September 10, 2003 (384 hr).
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_384s.gif
I know this has about as much chance of being as it's depicted as the Atlanta Falcons do of winning the Super Bowl
, but if it is....start evacuating South Florida tomorrow...because with high pressure stretched out like that and a strong hurricane in that position -- it would be "Great Miami Hurricane: part II" :o :o :o
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_384s.gif
I know this has about as much chance of being as it's depicted as the Atlanta Falcons do of winning the Super Bowl
, but if it is....start evacuating South Florida tomorrow...because with high pressure stretched out like that and a strong hurricane in that position -- it would be "Great Miami Hurricane: part II" :o :o :o
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wxman57
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JetMaxx wrote:If everyone wants to REALLY speculate into the future -- check this out...the 00z GFS forecast map for 7 p.m. EST September 10, 2003 (384 hr).
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_384s.gif
I know this has about as much chance of being as it's depicted as the Atlanta Falcons do of winning the Super Bowl
I think you mean it has as much chance as the Houston Texans winning the Super Bowl.
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wxman57
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Re: EURO getting on the tropical bandwagon and LOOK OUT TX!!
Stormsfury wrote:DAY 7 - For the 3rd run in a row, the EURO develops our CV system and makes it into a hurricane ... furthermore, tonight's Day 7 run poses some interesting questions for another potential system to impact TX ...
Sunday night's GFS and Canadian Ensembles hinted at the same ...
Tonight, unfortunately the NCEP supercomputer has overheated and is still down ... data initialization has been quite good, but without the supercomputer the 00z and 06z runs will be quite late (or unavailable) ...
Day 6-7 U.S. View ... Look out Texas???
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
Furthermore, for the 3rd night in a row ... here's our CV wave depicted ...
Day 7 ..
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
EURO also picking up on 3 other PAC systems including a BOMB between Hawaii and Mexico ...
I can't see any hurricane on day 7 of the EC, just a 1008 mb low. Where do you see it depicting a hurricane? That low-res version of the EC is only of marginal use.
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Rainband
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Stormsfury
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Re: EURO getting on the tropical bandwagon and LOOK OUT TX!!
wxman57 wrote:Stormsfury wrote:DAY 7 - For the 3rd run in a row, the EURO develops our CV system and makes it into a hurricane ... furthermore, tonight's Day 7 run poses some interesting questions for another potential system to impact TX ...
Sunday night's GFS and Canadian Ensembles hinted at the same ...
Tonight, unfortunately the NCEP supercomputer has overheated and is still down ... data initialization has been quite good, but without the supercomputer the 00z and 06z runs will be quite late (or unavailable) ...
Day 6-7 U.S. View ... Look out Texas???
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
Furthermore, for the 3rd night in a row ... here's our CV wave depicted ...
Day 7 ..
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
EURO also picking up on 3 other PAC systems including a BOMB between Hawaii and Mexico ...
I can't see any hurricane on day 7 of the EC, just a 1008 mb low. Where do you see it depicting a hurricane? That low-res version of the EC is only of marginal use.
The Pacific system .. the middle one ... has it at 995 mb ... but since pressures are downplayed by extended (posted that for people interested in EPAC systems as well)
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