Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

This is why we have to look with caution the runs at long range. At 12z GFS,it had a strong hurricane knocking the door off the Carolinas. Now at the 18z run,a huge swing from that as it enters the GOM ending in Texas.

8/6/11 run of 18z GFS Loop

[Ivanhater]

Massive hurricane in the Gulf for the system still over Africa right now

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal384.gif

[HURAKAN]

Massive hurricane in the Gulf for the system still over Africa right now

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal384.gif

LALALAND territory

[cycloneye]

Massive hurricane in the Gulf for the system still over Africa right now

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal384.gif

Those members that live in Texas will open bigtime their eyes when they see this. The good thing about it is that is long range and it can swing back towards off the Carolinas.

[Ivanhater]

Massive hurricane in the Gulf for the system still over Africa right now

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal384.gif

LALALAND territory

This whole thread is dedicated to LALALAND

[Rgv20]

This is why we have to look with caution the runs at long range. At 12z GFS,it had a strong hurricane knocking the door off the Carolinas. Now at the 18z run,a huge swing from that as it enters the GOM ending in Texas.

8/6/11 run of 18z GFS Loop

Looks to me that the first wave (circle in yellow) recurves between Bermuda and the East Coast and the second wave (pink circle) develops near the Lesser Antilles and tracks to the GOM.

[KWT]

Also system that is currently just out of Africa ends up being an east coast threat after coming up through the Caribbean, nearly identical in track to Emily.

Edit---It actually takes the exact same track, thats uncanny!

[Ptarmigan]

Also system that is currently just out of Africa ends up being an east coast threat after coming up through the Caribbean, nearly identical in track to Emily.

Edit---It actually takes the exact same track, thats uncanny!

Cue the Twilight Zone opening song.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-b5aW08ivHU[/youtube]

[jinftl]

Uncanny the paths that the systems that would become Cindy and Emily took from the eastern atlantic to around haiti....pretty much identical. Is that a sign of a steering pattern that will become a theme this season?


The tracks so far this season do show some trends....systems moving wnw across the yucatan into mexico and systems developing near the bahamas and turning north and east.

Also system that is currently just out of Africa ends up being an east coast threat after coming up through the Caribbean, nearly identical in track to Emily.

Edit---It actually takes the exact same track, thats uncanny!

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think it's very important to note that the GFS is very good forecasting cyclogenesis of Cape Verde systems in the long range, sometimes it is good forecasting intensity and it is not that good with the track (in the long range) as it tends to send every major hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico. In conclusion if it is consistent in the next few days it is very likely that something will develop but the track could change a lot so everybody needs to watch it.

[OuterBanker]

Heck I'll take the change. It lets us off the hook and give Tx some rain with what looks like a cat1.

[cycloneye]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think it's very important to note that the GFS is very good forecasting cyclogenesis of Cape Verde systems in the long range, sometimes it is good forecasting intensity and it is not that good with the track (in the long range) as it tends to send every major hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico. In conclusion if it is consistent in the next few days it is very likely that something will develop but the track could change a lot so everybody needs to watch it.

You are correct on that. The best example was todays 12z and 18z runs by GFS that had a hurricane off the Carolinas at 12z to a hurricane making landfall in Texas at 18z. But the important thing is to keep watching the models for consistency as the timeframes advance on run by run from GFS and the other ones.

[cycloneye]

It looks like after mid August,the NAO will turn positive,meaning less recurvature and more Caribbean threats.



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[CYCLONE MIKE]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think it's very important to note that the GFS is very good forecasting cyclogenesis of Cape Verde systems in the long range, sometimes it is good forecasting intensity and it is not that good with the track (in the long range) as it tends to send every major hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico. In conclusion if it is consistent in the next few days it is very likely that something will develop but the track could change a lot so everybody needs to watch it.

Actually Macro the GFS usually tries and recurve the long trackers well before reaching any land. Usually between the US east coast and Bermuda. Then of course keeps shifting west to make up for its early recurvature every run. Heck if the GFS was showing a hurricance hitting my area of Louisiana in 4 -5 days I would blow it off and just laugh. Don't trust anything it shows from mid to long range, sometimes even shorter range.

[StormClouds63]

So if these 2 scenarios play out, Franklin is a fish, and Gert is a U.S. threat.

[waveaxis]

Massive hurricane in the Gulf for the system still over Africa right now

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal384.gif

Landfall @ 384 hours, its a 50 kt tropical storm. That's way out it in GFS fantasy land, but I sure hope it comes to pass, my lawn and slab need it badly.

[maxintensity]

Landfall @ 384 hours, its a 50 kt tropical storm. That's way out it in GFS fantasy land, but I sure hope it comes to pass, my lawn and slab need it badly.

Global models can not be translated for intensity like that. One should only look at the environment depicted by the global model and the fact that it shows a healthy system. A global model might show a major hurricane as a broad area of low pressure.

[FireRat]

Hello folks, looks like things could get interesting down the road! wow.

I'd like to add some of my insight: I believe and have been stating days ago that the dates from August 15th-19th should be very important regarding a hurricane. I don't know if this coincides perfectly with the Carolina hurricane threat seen by the models, but I am pretty confident we may see something between those days...perhaps a hit on PR around the 15th-16th and maybe another whack (Bahamas of Carolinas after on 8/18-19. This is based on a private, personal method I'm working on and this thread caught my attention. I feel the need to post about this on here, I guess you can call this a gut feeling/

After that, August 22nd-27th looks like it could provide another hurricane event. Just wanted to share this with you all. It's really out on a limb, and a bit daring to say. I could be wrong, but seeing the models hinting at "stuff" going on around these dates makes me think I'm onto something. I'm gonna need the disclaimer now lol

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dwsqos2]

There wasn't much on the 0Z gfs. Maybe the borefest just continues.

[Florida1118]

Ther wasn't much on the 0Z gfs. Maybe the borefest just continues.

Thats the Spirit! IMO there Will be Gert in the next few days, TWO should have it by 8pm tomorrow