Pouch P14L- Off Africa coast (Is invest 92L)

[KWT]

The Euro ensembles suggest low pressure will dominate the MDR in the days ahead. That guidance also suggests strong ridging from the Azores into the Western Atlantic. My hunch is this will be a long track slow developing disturbance that could see a better opportunity, organization wise, as it approaches the Caribbean Islands. We will see.

Habe yopu seen the size of the E.American trough though, its SO deep, lol it goes right down to Florida!

I thought the 0z was a little agressive on that feature, but the 12z ECM is impressive!

Pattern shown by the models at the moment would lead to a CV recurve, but anything forming near 50-60W will be a Caribbean threat and possibly Bahamas, alot like Emily actually...

Would not be the least bit surprised to see 92L tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro ensembles suggest low pressure will dominate the MDR in the days ahead. That guidance also suggests strong ridging from the Azores into the Western Atlantic. My hunch is this will be a long track slow developing disturbance that could see a better opportunity, organization wise, as it approaches the Caribbean Islands. We will see.

Habe yopu seen the size of the E.American trough though, its SO deep, lol it goes right down to Florida!

I thought the 0z was a little agressive on that feature, but the 12z ECM is impressive!

Pattern shown by the models at the moment would lead to a CV recurve, but anything forming near 50-60W will be a Caribbean threat and possibly Bahamas, alot like Emily actually...

Would not be the least bit surprised to see 92L tomorrow.

I have and I also know not to put much credence in the pattern beyond 3-5 days. We are entering a transition period and a weaker disturbance traversing the MDR would tend to stay S under the developing Bermuda High. I also would not be surprised to see yet another cyclone following P14L.

[cycloneye]

I also would not be surprise to see yet another cyclone following P14L.

And is the wave behind this one that GFS has as a strong hurricane off the Carolinas.But of course,that part is long range.

[Rgv20]

Habe yopu seen the size of the E.American trough though, its SO deep, lol it goes right down to Florida!

I thought the 0z was a little agressive on that feature, but the 12z ECM is impressive!

Pattern shown by the models at the moment would lead to a CV recurve, but anything forming near 50-60W will be a Caribbean threat and possibly Bahamas, alot like Emily actually...

Would not be the least bit surprised to see 92L tomorrow.

Yeah 12zECMWF has an impressive trough which I think is overdone haha, would lean more toward the ECMWF&GFS Ensembles with the trough being off the coast of New England. I agree with you KWT that if it forms before 50W (not likely according to the models) it would be a classic recurve pattern but if it forms after 50W a Caribbean threat would be more likely.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA
FROM 22N16W TO 15N18W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE DIAGNOSTIC MODELS
HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
17W-24W DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VORTICITY ALOFT.

[ronjon]

Looks like a tropical depression already.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_meteosat.asp?product=tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

[Ivanhater]

Could technically be one Ron. Usually, these systems will struggle a little while as they clear the coast more. This does look interesting as it nears the Islands though, as the GFS suggests.

[Vortex]

Looking good...

[cycloneye]

It would be better to have the ECMWF with GFS,to then have a more credible development.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Could very well be a depression by tomorrow imo. its looking VERY good.

[jinftl]

NOAA graphic...looks like they are getting a bit bullish on this developing - graphic shows latest probability of tropical cyclone formation


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

[HurricaneWarning92]

Here is the best floater of it..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

still a long way to go ....

This should be an invest...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

I would be surprised if it is not mention in the TWO anytime soon...

[fci]

Here is the best floater of it..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

still a long way to go ....

This should be an invest...

Being this far out and based on track history for this season; I would expect small steps from the NHC. An Invest soon, a TD when they are positively certain and no sooner than that. Thus far they appear very conservative and deliberate in declaring Invests and upgrading to Tropical Cyclone. That would explain the rapid naming of systems when all systems are "Go" and systems rarely being TD's for very long once they are classified.
I'm not complaining, just observing.
So, if this area continues to develop, I expect slow transitions to Invests and beyond.
Just my opinion and observation.

[ROCK]

looks very good.....have to wonder about the SAL to the north diving down in front of it.....

[USTropics]

Still looking impressive with the first visible satellite image of the morning:


I took a look at the 00z model runs this morning as well, just a few notes. The GFS and ECMWF models have a weak system moving into the Caribbean at the end of the run (I only ran the models out to 168hrs). Following the vorticity on the GFS, it is definitely Pouch P14L (the system still over Africa also begins to develop at the end of the GFS run further east). At the end of the 00z HWRF run of Emily, you can also see a weak system moving into the Caribbean. The CMC either loses this in the middle of the Atlantic or wants to take it north. The NOGAPS also loses this in the middle of the Atlantic. Also looking at the 00z GFS 850mb-200mb shear run, upper level conditions might not be favorable until it reaches around 50W, to go along with a small pouch of SAL that appears to be dipping down from 25-40W. One last note, although weak, there does appear to be ridging building back in on most of the models that would suggest a westward tracking system with the 00z runs.

[alan1961]

Cycloneye..it might be time for Invest 92L...its showing at NRL

[USTropics]

And we now have invest 92l

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108070855
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011080706, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922011
AL, 92, 2011080706, , BEST, 0, 115N, 191W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

And the thread is locked. Go to Active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions.