Global model runs discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Ther wasn't much on the 0Z gfs. Maybe the borefest just continues.

Thats the Spirit! IMO there Will be Gert in the next few days, TWO should have it by 8pm tomorrow

Gert? what about franklin?

[ROCK]

I would take the 18z in a heart beat.....we can hide from the wind..we need the water badly.

[Florida1118]

Ther wasn't much on the 0Z gfs. Maybe the borefest just continues.

Thats the Spirit! IMO there Will be Gert in the next few days, TWO should have it by 8pm tomorrow

Gert? what about franklin?

Erh...yeah. Franklin.

[South Texas Storms]

I would take the 18z in a heart beat.....we can hide from the wind..we need the water badly.

I totally agree ROCK. I would love the 5 plus inches of rain all across the southern half of TX.

[gatorcane]

DGEX model keeps troughiness over eastern North America through mid August (through 192 hours which is what the model runs to):

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus

[cycloneye]

It looks like the real action will start after mid august as the wet phase of the MJO is forecast by GFS and other models to arrive to the Atlantic Basin after that period.



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[ROCK]

yeah Louis you are right MJO pulse coming this way...

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

[ROCK]

Curious feature the 0Z GFS wants to spin up along the FL coast in IVAN'S neighborhood....at 132....shows up at 850 and 500....originates thru the FL straits....132hr is not that far into la la land.....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_192l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_192l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[dwsqos2]

If the 0Z gfs is correct, the stultifying season will contiue. A high latitude yawner in the NGOM doesn't impress me. Oh, and I see some fantasy EPAC storms as well; how exciting!!

The MJO is really annoying me; I wish it would propagate.

[ronjon]

GOM system on the 06z run too. Appears to originate from the trough swinging down into FL from the north.

[cycloneye]

GFS is advertising for some runs now two things that for sure will be important as the peak of the season arrives after mid august, and those are positive NAO and lower pressures in MDR and Caribbean. ECMWF in past month forecasts have shown the same. If that occurs, systems may form more west and not close to the CV Islands and with that happening,landfalls become a higher probability.

[Ivanhater]

Well that is interesting Rock

[NDG]

I was about to say, I am taking the GFS with a grain of salt because of no other model support, but I see that NOGAPS and CMC show vorticity developing near FL by the end of the week, I would like to see the ECMWF jump on board though.

[FireRat]

"Hey, when will I step up to the plate?"

[cycloneye]

After mid month,Franklin and his friends will have a party sort of as the wet MJO arrives.



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[FireRat]

MJO arrives as the historical ramp-up period commences. By then we will see why NOAA has upped the number of storms for this season. a "Hurricane Party" could be in the making.

By the way, check out the current SST's:

[cycloneye]

The 8/8/11 12z GFS is more juicy than before,that has 92L developing by the Lesser Antilles to potential additional developments.See the loop below.

12z GFS Loop

[South Texas Storms]

That would be great for us Texans as it sends abundant tropical moisture our way giving us some drought relief.

[ROCK]

Well that is interesting Rock

it is and the 06Z GFS was even more interesting.. ...this is not trof related....originated in the straits....

[floridasun78]

i think we will see break for week or so