ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[USTropics]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108070855
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011080706, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922011
AL, 92, 2011080706, , BEST, 0, 115N, 191W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Thread that was at Talking Tropics forum about this system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111391

[USTropics]

[cycloneye]

Post away the models for this system.

[alan1961]

One blob with convection and the other with waning convection.

[USTropics]

A repost of my synopsis from the thread on talking tropics regarding the 00z model runs and now invest 92L.

The GFS and ECMWF models have a weak system moving into the Caribbean at the end of the run (I only ran the models out to 168hrs). Following the vorticity on the GFS, it is definitely Invest 92l (the system still over Africa also begins to develop at the end of the GFS run further east). At the end of the 00z HWRF run of Emily, you can also see a weak system moving into the Caribbean. The CMC either loses this in the middle of the Atlantic or wants to take it north. The NOGAPS also loses this in the middle of the Atlantic. Looking at the 00z GFS 850mb-200mb shear run, upper level conditions might not be favorable until it reaches around 50W, to go along with a small pouch of SAL that appears to be dipping down extending from 25-40W. One last note, although weak, there does appear to be ridging building back in on most of the models that would suggest a westward tracking system with the 00z runs.

[alan1961]

As always Aunt Sal will be in evidence against Invest 92L as the
long trek across the atlantic begins

[cycloneye]

As always Aunt Sal will be in evidence against Invest 92L as the
long trek across the atlantic begins

http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/7136/salz.gif

If it can mantain south of the main sal area,it can survive.

[Blown Away]

What speed is 92L moving at?

[cycloneye]

[ronjon]

06z GFS on 92L.

[Gustywind]

Looks like another Emily path on this run... close to Dominica?

[cycloneye]

:uarrow:
Looks like another Emily path on this run... close to Dominica?

The models will change a lot in the comming days,so what you say about the same track as Emily is still not a stone. Stay tuned for the future runs to see what track and intensity they will show.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow:
Looks like another Emily path on this run... close to Dominica?

The models will change a lot in the comming days,so what you say about the same track as Emily is still not a stone. Stay tuned for the future runs to see what track and intensity they will show.

I hope that Cycloneye thanks i will follow the future of this feature as it progress westards in the Central Atlantic.

[TheBurn]

=

92's got a lil' friend behind her!

[OURAGAN]

They no mention 92L in the TWO

[crownweather]

I'm a little surprised 92L didn't get a mention in the 8 am TWO. Oh well, it sure will be mentioned in our tropical weather discussion later this morning.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
AFRICA ALONG 23N18W 19N19W 15N20W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N23W. WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE LINGERING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W.

[jinftl]

92L could be a real ACE builder for the 2011 season overall....it has 2400+ miles of ocean to cross before even threatening the islands...that is, if it develops and is a long trakking system, of course.

[Vortex]

Cape Verde season looks to get started...

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 92, 2011080712, , BEST, 0, 115N, 200W, 25, 1009, DB