#12 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Aug 07, 2011 9:26 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 137.0E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST
OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 06/0041Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS 10-15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC WITH ONLY
5-10 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL AND NORTHWEST OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND FAVORABLE (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Yeah euro shows a closed system running towards Okinawa, but I suppose they mean a weak one. Too early to tell if it will stay weak like that but considering the environment around it up to the north, I have to agree that development wouldn't be that aggressive, if not too slow...
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