WTPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 053
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 34.5N 123.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.5N 123.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 37.1N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 39.6N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 41.8N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 43.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 45.0N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 35.1N 123.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA)
WARNING NR 53//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
BROAD, BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE KOREAN PENINSULA
TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TS 11W. A 07/0904Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN KOREAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
TS 11W IS NOW COMPLETELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION. CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF 55 KNOTS. 07/00Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS MUIFA IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER
LEVEL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
CURRENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) AND STEADILY
INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF TS 11W. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH A WEAKER OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC (TUTT) CELL. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST IS DECREASING DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SUBSIDENT REGION IS PREVENTING
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TS MUIFA. TS 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HONSHU.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TS MUIFA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (< 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS), INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (> 30 KNOTS), AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT TAU 24
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, RECURVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72.
C. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH
WBAR INDICATING LANDFALL IN NORTH KOREA SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST ENVELOPE. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
//
NNNN
WTKO20 RKSL 071500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 48
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 071500UTC 35.3N 123.7E
MOVEMENT NNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 66KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 080300UTC 37.9N 122.9E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT
24HR
POSITION 081500UTC 40.9N 123.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 090300UTC 43.1N 126.2E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 091500UTC 44.8N 129.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
72HR
POSITION 101500UTC 46.1N 134.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 998HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.
TXPQ29 KNES 071510
TCSWNP
A. 11W (MUIFA)
B. 07/1430Z
C. 35.3N
D. 123.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/TMI
H. REMARKS...VERY SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION AND THOUGH MOST DEEP COLD
CONVECTION IS ERODED...WARMER HIGHLY SHEARED TOPS (DUE TO CIRCULATION
WINDS NOT OUTSIDE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS) CLEARLY DEFINE THE CENTER AND
STILL APPEARS QUITE TROPICAL IN NATURE. CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN OW FOR
DT OF 3.5 (BANDING WOULD YIELD .7 FOR DT OF 3.0). MET IS 3.0. PT LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO VISIBLE PATTERN C BETWEEN 3.0 AND 3.5...GIVEN WARMER
TOPS...WILL GO WITH 3.0. GIVEN INCONSISTENCY WITH DT IN DIFFERENT
METHODS....DT IS REJECTED AND FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
07/0905Z 34.0N 123.9E SSMIS
07/1239Z 35.1N 123.5E TMI
...GALLINA
