WPAC: Tropical Depression 13w

[StormingB81]

Located right near where 90w was so I don't know if 90w dissipated and this one showe dup but here it is...

Located: 14N and 139E

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY

Some models bring it towards Okinawa as a weak system some dont even pick it up...either or if it comes near here weather how strong or weak if it brings alot of rain that could spell big trouble..already had alot of flooding and these buildings are water logged so it could spell big trouble..

[StormingB81]

BTW where I am at I can't put the photo up

[StormingB81]

ECMWF still picking nothing up.

[Florida1118]

Hopefully it doesnt develop...

[StormingB81]

Some models even though it doesnt develop much has it coming to Okinawa. That could be devestating...I know there is alot of flooded out buildings and water logged walls...another tropical system no matter how big or small could be very very bad if it brings any kind of rain with it! I was shocked when I actually went around to see the damage.

[dexterlabio]

ECM previous run (12z). Cannot find something like this for the latest one.


Other models (latest).


This is the pic, by the way.

[dexterlabio]

And JMA has it as a low pressure area:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 15N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

very deep convection but i think it won't develop...

[StormingB81]

JMA Upgrades to TD:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPAAT 17.2N 139.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.POSITION POOR.

JTWC upgrades to MEDIUM:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.6N 139.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081036Z SSMIS 37V IMAGE DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 081128Z ASCAT PARTIAL
IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS EAST AND NORTH OF A DEFINED
CENTER; THERE ARE ALSO 20-25 KNOT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
HOWEVER THEY ARE ADJACENT TO NUMEROUS RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS. OVERALL,
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS POOR WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
STRONG FLOW BETWEEN A TUTT CELL NEAR 25N 136E AND AN ANTICYCLONE
NEAR 23N 149E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Another look at what JMA is putting on this system..

[RobWESTPACWX]

ahhhh!!

WTPN21 PGTW 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 139.6E TO 23.4N 134.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N
139.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6N
139.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES FORMATIVE BANDING EAST WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. A
081128Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS EAST
AND NORTH OF A DEFINED CENTER; THERE ARE ALSO 20-25 KNOT WINDS
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HOWEVER THEY ARE ADJACENT TO NUMEROUS RAIN-
FLAGGED WINDS. OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS)
HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS POOR WITH FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG FLOW BETWEEN A TUTT CELL NEAR
25N 136E AND AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N 149E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092200Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Should of waited a few minutes on the posting..lol

[RobWESTPACWX]

Yes I'm just a little annoyed that the other two just ended then this decides to go up. Great stuff

[StormingB81]

I know some of the earlier models suggested Okinawa..we need a break..we have so much water damage here we will be in big trouble if this comes here. We need time to dry out

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well current stream line would bring it to the WNW, not good news at all, but some moderate wind shear just to the N should keep it weak from what I see, still early though.

[phwxenthusiast]

wow the WPAC just doesn't want to stop...

yeah agree with you ROB, it seems the overall pattern from last week will not really change which could bring 92W into Ryukyus; but the more important question on this one is how strong it will develop...

* * *

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA and JTWC products.

[supercane]

Latest vis:

Latest satellite bulletins from JTWC and SAB both with Dvorak estimate of 1.0/25kt:
TPPN13 PGTW 090030
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (NW OF GUAM)
B. 08/2330Z
C. 19.0N
D. 138.7E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING 1.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/2104Z 19.1N 139.1E SSMS
DARLOW

TXPQ22 KNES 082129
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 08/2030Z
C. 19.1N
D. 139.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...NO TRUE LLC SO CENTER BASED OFF MID LEVEL. CONVECTION WRAPS
.2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
08/1730Z 17.9N 139.1E AMSU
...KIBLER
Latest microwave:

Earlier ASCAT:

[supercane]

WWJP25 RJTD 090000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 18.8N 138.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 41N 142E
44N 147E 51N 157E 60N 168E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 170E 45N 160E 35N
150E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 57N 147E ESE SLOWLY.
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 1109 MUIFA (1109) TROPICAL DEPRESSION
996 HPA AT 44N 126E NE 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 28N 152E NE 10 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 31N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1110 MERBOK (1110) 985 HPA AT 40.4N 160.6E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[supercane]

Although ASCAT shows circulation...:

Looking pretty rough now with convection displaced to the north...:

Due to strong southerly shear:

Latest SAB Dvorak:
TXPQ22 KNES 090401
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 09/0257Z
C. 18.9N
D. 138.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS... SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITH MULTIPLE VORTS SURROUNDING A PARTLY
EXPOSED LLC. DT=1.0 BASED ON 1/10 BANDING. MET AND PAT ALSO 1.0.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
08/2244Z 18.5N 138.3E AMSU
...SWANSON

[euro6208]

could this become our 13th tropical cyclone and possibly nanmadol? we will see...