WPAC: Tropical Depression 13w

[dexterlabio]

JTWC may pick this up as a TD soon but not expecting much from it for now, still won't be surprised if JMA will have it as a named cyclone in the coming days especially if condition around the system will become more favorable for development.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I agree with SuperCane, there is a lot of windshear on this system, there is a good LLC but overall I think this is going to continued to be teared apart and shouldnt get above an intensity of TD, and that is only becuase it had a closed circ on Ascat, yet my thoughts and nothing official..

[supercane]

WWJP25 RJTD 091200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 20.9N 137.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 42N 141E
46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 170E 45N 163E 40N
155E 36N 150E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 46N 130E NE 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 30N 155E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 30N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1110 MERBOK (1110) 985 HPA AT 41.9N 162.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Latest IR shows system doing better currently than a few hours ago against the shear:

Latest SAB Dvorak of 1.0/25kt:
TXPQ22 KNES 091518
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 09/1430Z
C. 21.7N
D. 137.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI
H. REMARKS...LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN BOTH EIR AND SWIR
IMAGES. PBO EXTRAPOLATION FROM 0405Z AMSRE AND 0912Z TRMM PASSES. 3/10
BANDING YIELDS DT OF 1.5 AFTER 0.5 ADDED FOR WHITE BANDING. MET =
1.0. PAT = 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
09/0912Z 20.5N 137.8E TMI
...GUILLOT
ASCAT missed.

[supercane]

WWJP25 RJTD 091800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TROPICAL STORM 1110 MERBOK (1110) 988 HPA
AT 43N 164E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 55N 135E 54N 143E 58N 157E 59N 155E 59N 142E 55N 135E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 21.6N 137.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 140E 42N 141E
46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 170E 47N 164E 36N
153E 36N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 48N 132E ENE 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 30N 157E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 30N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Latest Dvorak estimates from SAB and JTWC both 1.5/25kt:
TXPQ22 KNES 092106
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 09/2030Z
C. 22.6N
D. 136.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/AMSRE/AMSU
H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
09/1545Z 22.2N 136.5E TMI
09/1616Z 22.3N 136.8E AMSRE
09/1718Z 22.2N 136.5E AMSU
...SCHWARTZ
TPPN13 PGTW 091824
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (NW OF GUAM)
B. 09/1730Z
C. 22.1N
D. 137.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/1616Z 22.0N 137.1E AMSR
UEHARA

[supercane]

JTWC reissued the TCFA, but prudently does not seem too bullish on much further development given shear and poor model support:
WTPN21 PGTW 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082151ZAUG2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.4N 137.4E TO 27.5N 136.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
091800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N
137.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
138.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 137.2E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091616Z AMSR-E 89 GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES THAT THIS INTENSE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTH
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WHILE THE 36 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE EAST INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT WITH WEAK
BANDING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
POOR WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG FLOW
BETWEEN A TUTT CELL NEAR 30N 130E AND THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N 142E.
MODEL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WEAK INDICATING 20-30 KNOT WINDS AT BEST
DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IF THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION, IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE
SOUTH OF HONSHU. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17
TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102200Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

IF THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION,


I think that says it all.

[StormingB81]

and we have lucky number 13..Tropical Depression 13

[StormingB81]

WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092151ZAUG2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 23.7N 136.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 136.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.5N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.3N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 28.4N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 29.3N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 30.9N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 136.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (NOW 10-20 KNOTS). BASED ON
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER, THE SYSTEM IS NOW ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 092151Z
AUG 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 092200)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

WWJP25 RJTD 100000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 990 HPA
AT 45N 164E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 55N 136E 59N 143E 59N 160E 55N 146E 55N 136E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 23.8N 136.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 42N 142E
47N 151E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 39N 165E 37N 150E 37N
141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 992 HPA AT 48N 134E EAST 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 31N 158E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 30N 143E EAST SLOWLY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR
01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (NOW 10-20 KNOTS). ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 092257Z SSMIS
IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED NEAR KYUSHU, JAPAN.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EVIDENT IN MSI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE
IMPROVED SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND
SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 13W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES PUSH INTO HONSHU. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED
BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER
TAU 36, THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS TRACKERS LOSE THE VORTEX AND JUMP
ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWARD TO MIDLATITUDE LOWS. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST
IS POSITIONED FASTER AND EQUATORWARD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER
TAU 36. TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. TD 13W SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.//
NNNN

TPPN13 PGTW 100006
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (NW OF GUAM)
B. 09/2330Z
C. 23.4N
D. 136.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. BROKEN CNVCTN WRAP
OF .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. MET
YIELDS AN UNREP 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/2107Z 23.2N 136.8E SSMS
UEHARA

[euro6208]

Tropical Depression 13W

[dexterlabio]

Looks like a TD near its death. Now I would be very amazed if it will manage to go above TD status.

[phwxenthusiast]

well JMA has begun to put this into their Tropical Cyclone Information page:

TD
Issued at 07:15 UTC, 10 August 2011
<Analyses at 10/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity-TD
Center position N24°55'(24.9°) E136°30'(136.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>

Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°30'(27.5°) E136°25'(136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 25.3N 136.5E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 27.8N 136.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 25.4N 136.7E POOR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 27.9N 136.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

Current DT from CMISS has this up to a 2.5 or winds of 35kts, yet that seems way over given the dis-organization with this system, still agree that it will not get above TD. Thoughts?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Newest graphic, JT still concise (quoting them) that this will not develop further, it is moving in to some high shear, theirs dry air to the west and it will hit cooler SST's soon. No joy on this one. Good news!

[Chacor]

Certainly looks interesting. The blowup of convection is probably what pushed ADT above 2.5. Might see JMA bite on it if it sustains the convection and stays close to Japan.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 25.6N 136.8E POOR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 27.6N 137.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

JMA still calling for intensification.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 26.7N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 28.6N 138.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 136.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 136.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 28.3N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 29.7N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 31.0N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.0N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 136.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH OF
KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN

TPPN13 PGTW 110024
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (SE OF KYUSHU)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 26.8N
D. 136.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP
OF .35 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS 2.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BELMONDO
TXPQ22 KNES 102108
TCSWNP
A. 13W (NONAME)
B. 10/2030Z
C. 26.8N
D. 136.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 BASED ON .5 DEGREES SHEAR BUT CONVECTIVE AREA
LESS THAN 1.5 DEGREES LATITUDE IN SIZE. MET IS 2.5 WITH PT OF 2.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
10/1449Z 25.8N 136.4E TMI
10/1657Z 26.0N 136.0E AMSRE
...LIDDICK

[euro6208]

T2.5/2.5 13W -- West Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 996.3mb/ 43.0kt

upgrade to tropical storm? we'll see