Global model runs discussion

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

That would be great for us Texans as it sends abundant tropical moisture our way giving us some drought relief.

Well, maybe. Even the 12Z GFS's solution only brings about 0.4" of rain to Houston. Ridge remains quite strong. Of course, this is 16 days out. Maybe the ridge will be gone by then and we'll be getting cold fronts!

[floridasun78]

i found this http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 2/131.html and this too http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ecm ... 2/111.html and this http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 12/32.html let see what happen

[floridasun78]

look at all dry air their alot http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... itEW5.html you can see how it have 92l for dinner by afica

[Kennethb]

:uarrow:

That would be great for us Texans as it sends abundant tropical moisture our way giving us some drought relief.

Well, maybe. Even the 12Z GFS's solution only brings about 0.4" of rain to Houston. Ridge remains quite strong. Of course, this is 16 days out. Maybe the ridge will be gone by then and we'll be getting cold fronts!

Could this heat be getting to wxman57? Is he suggesting he wants a cold front?

[ROCK]

:uarrow:

That would be great for us Texans as it sends abundant tropical moisture our way giving us some drought relief.

Well, maybe. Even the 12Z GFS's solution only brings about 0.4" of rain to Houston. Ridge remains quite strong. Of course, this is 16 days out. Maybe the ridge will be gone by then and we'll be getting cold fronts!

Could this heat be getting to wxman57? Is he suggesting he wants a cold front?

WXMN57 likes to ride his bike in heat indexs in the 70s and not 117's....

However one must remember Charley in 04 that dropped a front right down to the coast. Saved the NGOM but not WFL coast....has happened.

[setxsunshine]

:uarrow:

That would be great for us Texans as it sends abundant tropical moisture our way giving us some drought relief.

Well, maybe. Even the 12Z GFS's solution only brings about 0.4" of rain to Houston. Ridge remains quite strong. Of course, this is 16 days out. Maybe the ridge will be gone by then and we'll be getting cold fronts!

call me crazy but I swear I can 'feel' fall in the air even with all this heat. Then again, it could be wishful thinking...

[ROCK]

the door will be open soon enough.....12Z EURO shows a reflection passing thru the straits at 240hr....and another one in the carib.....the lid is going to blow off here this month. Probably more than one storm to watch coming up, IMO

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Rgv20]

GFS Ensembles forecasting negative 500mb anomalies (meaning very unsettled weather) in the Caribbean as we head to the end of next week. Also add that the MJO is forecast to be in an upward phase as we head at second half of August and I would not be surprised if something tries to get going in the Caribbean at the end of next week as the GFS has been hinting at.

[A1A]

look at all dry air their alot http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... itEW5.html you can see how it have 92l for dinner by afica

That's impressive. What is the significance for tropical activity? I thought it would be a negative for development?

[somethingfunny]

Globals still showing activity, or did they drop everything again?

[SoupBone]

Anyone know how accurate MJO forecasts have been historically?

[Frank2]

call me crazy but I swear I can 'feel' fall in the air even with all this heat. Then again, it could be wishful thinking...

I believe it - very hot summers seem to be followed by cold winters, and just this morning even here in South Florida there seemed to be a very subtle hint of Fall in the air - perhaps it's because we already lost 30 minutes of daylight at sunrise, but the environment had that Fall-like quality to it this morning - calm winds and strato-cu above, which are both common in South Florida in the Fall...

Frank

[cycloneye]

Globals still showing activity, or did they drop everything again?

At least GFS continues to show the wave behind ex 92L developing in the Western Caribbean and gets into the BOC.

[ronjon]

00z ECM back on board with development too.

[rockyman]

Where's the "death ridge" on the 10 day ECM? Looks like the Gulf is wide open

[ConvergenceZone]

I too wonder when the lid is going to blow and it's going to get extremely busy....The pacific and atlantic are so quiet it's almost erie.....

[cycloneye]

I too wonder when the lid is going to blow and it's going to get extremely busy....The pacific and atlantic are so quiet it's almost erie.....

Erie may be the case especially with people that heard last week the updates from the experts that came out calling for an active to very active peak and rest of the season.They may be asking,"where are the storms"? But we know the lid will open up very soon as the wet MJO arrives.

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles show the trough lifting out in ten days.

[Kory]

It appears the ridge is going to position itself more in the SE US. This could give Texas a respite from some of the heat and possible steer future 92L westward to the Caribbean where we will have to watch it.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Choo-choo!! The wave train is running well in this 12z GFS run.

8/9/11 GFS loop of run at 12z