ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[HurricaneWarning92]

:uarrow: oh I think the Forecast models would eventually correct themselves west with future runs. Its going to be interesting to see how much latitude it gains when it reaches 55W.

How so? will a ridge be building in westwards, not allowing it to recurve?

Looking at the 12zECMWF and GFS forecast 500mb heights the trough on the east coast is weakening from 8 thru 10 days and being replace by a ridge in south eastern canada represented by the light orange colors on the map. This could potentially but the east coast at risk if 92l were to develop and track to the south west Atlantic.



Of course it is still way too early to forecast where 92l will track, just have to keep all options open at this point.

ah i see now... this is possibly what the pros were basing their predictions of.

[Florida1118]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Kohlecane]

Keep the Percents coming

[KWT]

System does look like it has a decent shot at developing at some point...track should be a recurve, pattern is going to alter a little but probably not quickly and strongly enough for 92L imo.

[ronjon]

00z ECM shows a pretty close track to NC and New England from 92L.

[GCANE]

Latest ASCAT looks better.

[ronjon]

06z NOGAPs shows more ridging - brings 92l to the SE Bahamas.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2011081006&set=Tropical

[GCANE]

Pretty good convection, with strong rain-rate and cold cloud-tops, firing to the NW of the LLC.

Mid-level moisture has built up nicely in the last 24 hrs as indicated on WV.

A mid-level dry slot to the NW of the convection, but MIMIC-TPW is showing good boundary-layer convergence; so, it may not be much of an issue.

Looks to me like the largest area of TPW so far this year for a wave.

Despite coming off Dakar with a minimal theta-e column, it has come together well over water.

There is a lot of energy available for development, as shown in MIMIC-TPW, for this one.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 100530.jpg

[GCANE]

Good anticyclone over it.

[tolakram]

The floater labeled Emily is now over this blob.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[GCANE]

Latest FIM has a possible landfall around the Savannah / JAX area.

Not as aggressive with the east-coast trough as yesterday's run.

Showing a very strong latent-heat signature when in the Bahamas.

Given the fact that this is showing a very strong MIMIC-TPW signature at this point, IMHO this has the possibility to spinup to a major TC if/when it gets in the Bahamas.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2011080912&plotName=mslp_sfc&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2011080912&plotName=wind_850&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1

[westwind]

The floater labeled Emily is now over this blob.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

now renamed L92

[GCANE]

UL outflow on the NW side of the convection appears to be pushing away the mid-level dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[Meso]

542
ABNT20 KNHC 101147
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WESTWARD SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE LOCATED ABOUT 715 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20
MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Up to 20%

[SFLcane]

Appears to be organizing nicely this morning as tpc suggest. Way out there but i still dont see a pattern were this makes the trek without eventually recurveing.

[cycloneye]

Appears to be organizing nicely this morning as tpc suggest. Way out there but i still dont see a pattern were this makes the trek without eventually recurveing.

Somewhat off topic=What about that area they mention South of CV islands? Will it also develop? (Topic at TT about it)

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 92, 2011081006, , BEST, 0, 122N, 297W, 25, 1010, LO

[OuterBanker]

Interesting. The fim shows a nearly impossible landfall. Savannah. We all know how rare a N Fl S GA hit is. A Savannah hit even with a Cat 2 could be catastrophic. The continental shelf in that area reaches far from the shoreline, even a minimal sea rise can cause massive flooding. Fortunately, it rarely happens.

[Aric Dunn]

Appears to be organizing nicely this morning as tpc suggest. Way out there but i still dont see a pattern were this makes the trek without eventually recurveing.

Somewhat off topic=What about that area they mention South of CV islands? Will it also develop? (Topic at TT about it)

It is technically the same system its within the larger circ of the area farther west. Its also nearly all in the MId levels and will likely die out at some point.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty good LLC developing. convection starting to build over it. Chances should go up later if more convection builds