Global model runs discussion

['CaneFreak]

While this may not be a model, I would say it is worthy of posting in here...these are the CPC analogs for the upcoming 8-14 day pattern...for those of you who are new and have no idea what I am talking about...the Climate Prediction Center runs an algorithm to search through the historical records to find upper level patterns that were similar to the upcoming 6-10 and 8-14 day pattern and they use this to help them decide what to forecast for the next week to two weeks. The analog years listed include but are not limited to 1996, 2004, 2005, and 2008



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[Blown Away]

That is very interesting, I was thinking of all the summers when SFL had a TS/hurricane the most similiar to this year was 2004. Can you provide the direct link to get that info? Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Today's 12z CMC develops wave in Eastern Atlantic. Let's wait for the ECMWF and see what it has at 12z.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

['CaneFreak]

:uarrow:
That is very interesting, I was thinking of all the summers when SFL had a TS/hurricane the most similiar to this year was 2004. Can you provide the direct link to get that info? Thanks.

Enjoy

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... analog.php

[Blown Away]

Today's 12z CMC develops wave in Eastern Atlantic. Let's wait for the ECMWF and see what it has at 12z.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Early in the run looks like lot of weakness off the CONUS but at the end run looks like the high begins to build w/ a developing system underneath. I am so tired of all these TS's I'm ready to track an Atlantic cane.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Same here, its August and so far, no hurricane.

[StarmanHDB]

....It's August and so far, no hurricane.

Have no worries. The average date for the first Atlantic hurricane is August 10 and I think the 2011 season will bring us our fair share.

[lonelymike]

Today's 12z CMC develops wave in Eastern Atlantic. Let's wait for the ECMWF and see what it has at 12z.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Early in the run looks like lot of weakness off the CONUS but at the end run looks like the high begins to build w/ a developing system underneath. I am so tired of all these TS's I'm ready to track an Atlantic cane.

And then you'll be screaming in terror when one comes right over your house

As Depeche Mode says "Enjoy the Silence

[Nimbus]

Which model was it a few days ago that predicted a weakness mid gulf?
I was looking at the IR tonight and things seem to be getting a little juicy due to the latest front.

[cycloneye]

GFS has a trio of systems and all track to the NE of the Leewards.



8/10/11 GFS loop of 06z run

[Kory]

GFS has a trio of systems and all track to the NE of the Leewards.



8/10/11 GFS loop of 06z run

Its starting to look like 2010 all over again with an East Coast trough and the systems turning out to sea.

[fwbbreeze]

what is that on the 06 GFS loop that looks to organize north of PR then tracks due west over Cuba?

[ConvergenceZone]

I made an earlier comment on another thread that a high should build in eventually preventing
all of these recurves, but I also said that last year and the pattern never changed, so what do I know .
For all I know, the pattern may never change this year, just like last year.....

[Ivanhater]

By the end of August the globals are showing the big ridge shifting to the NE...that is a pattern extremely alarming for the U.S coast...



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[xironman]

Well the GFS eventually does build a ridge, just at 360 hrs, but we know how reliable that is. Even without that these are not big misses here 92l is the lead storm and it is a few hundred miles from being a concern.



[Edit]: Sorry Ivan, missed your post above, and that one behind 92l is giving the northern islands a bad time...

[cycloneye]

12z GFS loop. Hybridstorm_November 2001, look how close this hurricane tracks near your location.

12z GFS Loop

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

12z GFS loop. Hybridstorm_November 2001, look how close this hurricane tracks near your location.

12z GFS Loop

Indeed on this run it looks like more of a direct threat to Eastern Nova Scotia & Newfoundland rather than Western New Brunswick or Eastern Maine, for now anyway.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This model run reminds me of something interesting. We tend to be lucky in this region. Most often storms make landfall well to the East of here in New Scotia. We usually get heavy rain, and often flooding, but miss out on the high wind damaged which tends to be around the centre and to the East of the centre especially with storms passing north of 40 latitude. Historically we usually take far more wind damage from New England hurricanes whose centres pass either right over us, or even well to the East (see Hurricane Carol of 1954, Hurricane Donna of 1960 or the Great September Gale of 1869 for good examples of this) than from Nova Scotian hurricanes.

[Stormcenter]

Very very true......the pattern like last season may not change.
I'm not complaining.

I made an earlier comment on another thread that a high should build in eventually preventing
all of these recurves, but I also said that last year and the pattern never changed, so what do I know .
For all I know, the pattern may never change this year, just like last year.....

[ROCK]

Very very true......the pattern like last season may not change.
I'm not complaining.

I made an earlier comment on another thread that a high should build in eventually preventing
all of these recurves, but I also said that last year and the pattern never changed, so what do I know .
For all I know, the pattern may never change this year, just like last year.....

I am....we are in a drought....lakes and rivers are drying up...any moisture in whatever form is needed....