ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[SFLcane]

12z plots from wrightweather...Recurves pretty quickly as the GFDL suggest.

[Kory]

Interesting. The fim shows a nearly impossible landfall. Savannah. We all know how rare a N Fl S GA hit is. A Savannah hit even with a Cat 2 could be catastrophic. The continental shelf in that area reaches far from the shoreline, even a minimal sea rise can cause massive flooding. Fortunately, it rarely happens.

I have never heard of the FIM and its not a really reliable model used. Don't even worry about it hitting the US. There is going to be a huge trough digging all the way to Florida pushing a cold front off the East Coast. It will turn out to sea.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

['CaneFreak]

Oh wow...you already have it figured out? I have studied the equations of motion and I don't even have it figured out yet...I am impressed...

Interesting. The fim shows a nearly impossible landfall. Savannah. We all know how rare a N Fl S GA hit is. A Savannah hit even with a Cat 2 could be catastrophic. The continental shelf in that area reaches far from the shoreline, even a minimal sea rise can cause massive flooding. Fortunately, it rarely happens.

I have never heard of the FIM and its not a really reliable model used. Don't even worry about it hitting the US. There is going to be a huge trough digging all the way to Florida pushing a cold front off the East Coast. It will turn out to sea.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kory]

Oh wow...you already have it figured out? I have studied the equations of motion and I don't even have it figured out yet...I am impressed...

Interesting. The fim shows a nearly impossible landfall. Savannah. We all know how rare a N Fl S GA hit is. A Savannah hit even with a Cat 2 could be catastrophic. The continental shelf in that area reaches far from the shoreline, even a minimal sea rise can cause massive flooding. Fortunately, it rarely happens.

I have never heard of the FIM and its not a really reliable model used. Don't even worry about it hitting the US. There is going to be a huge trough digging all the way to Florida pushing a cold front off the East Coast. It will turn out to sea.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I know...I'm pretty smart.

[Blown Away]

Interesting. The fim shows a nearly impossible landfall. Savannah. We all know how rare a N Fl S GA hit is. A Savannah hit even with a Cat 2 could be catastrophic. The continental shelf in that area reaches far from the shoreline, even a minimal sea rise can cause massive flooding. Fortunately, it rarely happens.

Kory wrote: I have never heard of the FIM and its not a really reliable model used. Don't even worry about it hitting the US. There is going to be a huge trough digging all the way to Florida pushing a cold front off the East Coast. It will turn out to sea.

I know...I'm pretty smart.

Lol, you never heard about the FIM and conclude it's not reliable model? How does that work? Agree anytime I see a model show a landfall from Vero Beach to Savannah, likely there is uncertainty about the trough and ultimately it will be strong enough to recurve or hit NC or weak and HP will push the system west over SFL.

[xironman]

That is where I saw it as well, nice broad circulation. Should be no problem for that convection to the north to start to wrap around.

[Macrocane]

I think the landfall in Georgia was yesterday 12z run. Today 0z run shows a weaker cyclone recurving out in the open Atlantic in agreeement with the other models. Also it's interesting to note that UKMET and Canadian dropped development but the ECMWF was finally onboard in the 0z run and we know we can trust more in the Euro than the other 2

[Kory]

Interesting. The fim shows a nearly impossible landfall. Savannah. We all know how rare a N Fl S GA hit is. A Savannah hit even with a Cat 2 could be catastrophic. The continental shelf in that area reaches far from the shoreline, even a minimal sea rise can cause massive flooding. Fortunately, it rarely happens.

Kory wrote: I have never heard of the FIM and its not a really reliable model used. Don't even worry about it hitting the US. There is going to be a huge trough digging all the way to Florida pushing a cold front off the East Coast. It will turn out to sea.

I know...I'm pretty smart.

Lol, you never heard about the FIM and conclude it's not reliable model? How does that work? Agree anytime I see a model show a landfall from Vero Beach to Savannah, likely there is uncertainty about the trough and ultimately it will be strong enough to recurve or hit NC or weak and HP will push the system west over SFL.

Well it certainly doesn't hang with the big dogs like the: BAMs, HWRF, and GFDL.

[NDG]

0z ECMWF looks good to me, 92L could come very close to the US east coast.

[TheBurn]

13:15Z Natural Color and MPE

[GCANE]

Well it certainly doesn't hang with the big dogs like the: BAMs, HWRF, and GFDL.

I am wondering if that was a note of sarcasm especially in light of how well they have been doing this year.

Anyway, FIM is an experimental Global that has 3 unique features.

http://fim.noaa.gov/

I have been following it for a couple years now and IMHO it is comparable in skill to GFS and Euro.

It is rather conservative in genesis, nothing like CMC hype.

I particularly like some of its component features like the latent-heat forecast which have worked well in the past forecasting the development and strength of a TC.

[plasticup]

And also the Global Models now unanimously agree on 92l taking a track NE of the Lesser Antilles and recurving it out to the open Atlantic.

I'm not sure about the unanimity of a fish. The FIM and Nogaps dont recurve it early and the CMC is too early to tell. Still, with it over 1500 miles east of land, plenty of time to see how models evolve.

Uh... those recurves aren't fish. Almost all of the recurving tracks push this over Bermuda.

[floridasun78]

pretty good LLC developing. convection starting to build over it. Chances should go up later if more convection builds

i notice that too their no storm over center it look like their se shear over 92l

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree with everyone else about Invest 92L being a recurve. There's really nothing to stop it from recurving, BUT
this might signify the lid finally blowing off the tropics....There will probably be a high building in soon enough
to prevent the recruves as we move into September. (just my opinion).

[Blown Away]

Blown Away Wrote: Lol, you never heard about the FIM and conclude it's not reliable model? How does that work? Agree anytime I see a model show a landfall from Vero Beach to Savannah, likely there is uncertainty about the trough and ultimately it will be strong enough to recurve or hit NC or weak and HP will push the system west over SFL.

Kory wrote:
Its funny how you always mention the possibility of a system hitting south Florida...I get the hint of some -removed- possibly? Since you live there, it seems you always find a solution of a hurricane hitting South Florida even if the chances are very slim to none.

Recurve, NC, or SFL were my solutions for a model showing a landfall between Vero/Savannah? Those solutions pretty much cover any system that approaches the SE CONUS, so not sure how my statement is -removed-! Love how you draw conclusions w/o any facts. Keep trolling!

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm very impressed with this wave. Conditions looks pretty favorable for development in my opinion. I can see this thing getting the red crayon pretty soon...

[SouthDadeFish]

Nice spin and moisture envelope. Appears to be getting slammed by some dry air to the west on the latest frames though:

[Ivanhater]

I don't like repeating myself over and over this season. If you can't keep a respectful conversation, then don't post at all. This is an overall warning, if I have to bring it to PM then suspensions will follow. Carry on....

[hurricanedude]

well spoken Mike....u da man!!!! u rock!!! u my hero...LOL
anyway....nothing has even developed yet so no need to even think about where it will go...let it form first..then let the models ingest that data..then maybe a talk about where it will go may commence...

[Kory]

I'm very impressed with this wave. Conditions looks pretty favorable for development in my opinion. I can see this thing getting the red crayon pretty soon...

While it is impressive, I don't know about it getting "the red crayon" yet. Nice outflow is developing and it has a decent spin, but the thunderstorm activity seems to be suppressed a bit. We shall see though...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.