Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Little closeup of the twave moving out of the Leewards

[msbee]

Have you got the same in our area my friends of the Lesser Antilles? That's becoming unpleasant...

Environment

Potentially irritating Sargassum algae
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 133227.php

V.D. France-Antilles Guadeloupe01.08.2011

As Martinique and Guyana, algae Sargassum we poison the life. For some time now, these Brown algae invading some beaches and odour generated by their decomposition is not pleasant. It starts from 12 to 48 hours after the grounding. In addition to the olfactory discomfort, Prefecture and regional health agency (ARS) indicate that "This decomposition, coupled with a high concentration of algae, is at the origin of the emission of hydrogen sulfide (H2S)". There is catastrophic, but attention anyway. "Inhaling this gas may produce irritation of the eyes and the respiratory tract, particularly for sensitive populations (people who have difficulty breathing, asthma, elderly, infants, pregnant...) to moderate dose." In the case of accidental inhalation of this gas, should consult her physician.

Prefecture advises the population, especially the residents, visitors, walkers and generally all those who engage in nautical and maritime activities:

-to avoid walking on the so-called Brown algae "Sargasso" stranded on the shores

-to respect the instructions of prohibition of access to the beach or swimming that could be put in place by the municipalities concerned.

"Review of the evolution of these algae deposits continue to be provided by the State services, which will undoubtedly, if necessary, to disseminate information to the address of the population."

Yep. It started appearing a few months ago and is now plentiful on our eastern and southern shores.
It's pretty disgusting.

Looks like we have a problem here too.

http://www.thedailyherald.com/islands/1 ... aches.html

[Macrocane]

Hi! The warmer than normal temperatures were still registered yesterday in most of Central America:
-Warmer than normal lows were registered in Belize, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal lows ocurred in the rest of the region.
-Warmer than normal highs were experienced in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal highs were in place in El Salvador and Panama.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.6°C (45.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.3°C (54.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.7°C (44.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.2°C (57.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.2°C (88.2°F) Warmest since June 23
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F) Warmest since June 29
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.4°C (86.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.8°C (73.0°F) Warmest since July 8
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.4°C (95.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F) Warmest since May 16
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F) Warmest since July 8
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.2°C (57.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST WED AUG 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY LIMITING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THESE SHOWERS GENERATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1
INCH. THESE SHOWER WILL LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

THE DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...AFFECTING THE ISLAND
OF ST CROIX. AS THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVED CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF PUERTO RICO BECAME WEAKER AND BARELY AFFECTED THIS COAST.

UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS A JET STREAK WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
NOW LOCATED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL GENERATE A UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT...AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
COMBINE TO GENERATE UNSETTLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TNCM..TISX AND
TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AT LEAST THROUGH 10/23Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE AROUND TJSJ AND TJBQ. LLVL
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS AS THE WAVE PASSES BY.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 80 90 / 40 40 20 20
STT 80 90 80 90 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

This is the discussion by Rob of Crown Weather this morning concerning what is going on in the Eastern Atlantic.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 PM AST WED AUG 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
THROUGH FRI. TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS OVR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AXIS FCST ACROSS PR ON SAT THEN MOVE INTO THE
WRN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW PRES ACROSS THE CNTRL
ATLC MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO THE MONA PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS H85 THETAE...PW AND K INDICES PEAKING
OVERNIGHT SO XPC ACTIVE WX OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MAKE IT ONSHORE ACROSS SE PR BUT FOR THE MOST PART THINK
ACTIVITY ALREADY PEAKED OVR LAND AREAS.

THU...TROPICAL WAVE AXIS SHOULD ALREADY BE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS A RAPID DROP IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND H85 THETAE
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO INDICATE A MUCH BETTER DAY. SHOULD BE
QUITE HOT NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA UNDER A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS OVR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH AXIS MOVING INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN BY MON. WEEKEND LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT BUT SUN COULD BE A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED AS TUTT MOVES FURTHER WEST AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES.

THEN ALL EYES WILL TURN TO INVEST 92L AND INVEST 93L. BOTH SYSTEMS
BEAR CLOSE WATCHING DUE TO THEIR LOW LATITUDE POSITIONS. UNTIL
TSTM ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATES AND A WELL DEFINED CENTER DEVELOPS TRACK
GUIDANCE WILL NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON EITHER SYSTEM. INVEST 92L
AND INVEST 93L ARE FCST TO APPROACH 60W AND 50W BY MON EVENING
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJPS AND TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS AMZ710 ON MON AS INVEST 92L APPROACHES 60W.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 80 90 / 20 10 20 20
STT 80 90 80 90 / 30 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
601 AM AST THU AUG 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTHWEST
OF PUERTO RICO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. A TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH FEW BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...THEREFORE...EXPECT A VERY HOT DAY TODAY...WITH
NEAR RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME ACTIVE THE NEXT WEEKS AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
WILL CLOSE MONITOR THE TROPICS...AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK OF THE
HURRICANE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...
HOWEVER... VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER 11/16Z SHRA/TSRA MAY
START DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 80 90 80 / 10 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Here is this morning's discussion of both 92L and 93L by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[Macrocane]

Hi! Warmer than normal highs were registered yesterday in most of Central America, some places even registered their warmest temps in 2 months or more, only Panama and Costa Rica had near normal highs. The lows were warmer than normal in Belize, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama and near normal in the other countries.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.9°C (48.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.2°C (54.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 19.6°C (67.3°F) Warmest since June 13
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.2°C (59.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.7°C (89.1°F) Warmest since June 23
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 23.7°C (74.7°F) Warmest since May 18
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.1°C (95.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F) Warmest since June 3
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F) Warmest since May 27
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.5°C (52.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.0°C (71.6°F)

[cycloneye]

It was very warm today as it reched 92F in San Juan reaching a tie for the record of the day.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST THU AUG 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AND BECOME MORE EAST ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY SEE ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC TPW SHOWS A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...LIMITING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI TODAY AND FRIDAY. ONLY A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...STREAMERS WERE NOTED DOWNSTREAM OF THE SMALL ISLANDS. TYPICAL
SUMMER TRADE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO EACH AFTERNOON AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF
THE ISLANDS AT NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TUTT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OVERALL...THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES LOCATED IN THE EAST TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...WE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THESE SYSTEMS...
AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. PLEASE REFER TO
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY...A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES WAS REACHED THIS AFTERNOON AT LUIS MUNOZ
MARIN AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN P.R. THIS TIES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 92
SET IN 1995.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 79 89 / 20 40 40 40
STT 80 90 80 89 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
915 PM AST THU AUG 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEK. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE ECNTRL ATLC MAY
BECOME TROPICAL CYCLONES OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND COULD APPROACH
THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG NOTED EARLIER THIS EVENING ON 11-3.9
MICRON IMAGERY ACROSS THE SRN SLOPES FROM MARICAO EAST TO JAYUYA BUT
SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT MORE RECENTLY. ALSO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING FROM THE EAST MAY PREVENT ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

THINGS LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND STABLE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PR. MODEL
FIELDS OF H85 THETAE ALL SHOW A DECLINE OVR THE WEEKEND WHILE K
INDEX AND PW REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A
WEAKER TUTT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND WITH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING STRONGER.

NEXT WEEK...FORECAST WILL HINGE ON TRACK OF TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES
ACROSS THE ECNTRL ATLC. FIRST LOW (INVEST 92L) LOOKING LESS
ORGANIZED AS DISCUSSED IN LATEST TROPICAL WX OTLK. SOME MODELS
ACTUALLY DO NOT GIVE THIS SYSTEM MUCH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFDL JUST SHOWING AN OPEN TROUGH.

INVEST 93L LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM OVR THE WEEKEND. HPC/NHC
COORDINATION INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TAKING A MORE WWD TRACK WITH
HPC DY3-DY7 EXTENDED GRAPHICS INDICATING A TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST
SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX BY 12Z THU AUG 18. THE 12Z ECMWF (THE TOP
PERFORMER OVR THE PAST THREE YEARS) SHOWS SYSTEM TRACKING BETWEEN
ST. JOHN AND ANEGADA ISLAND NEXT THU WITH THE SECOND MOST RELIABLE
MODEL THE GFDL TAKING IT RATHER BRISKLY ACROSS MARTINIQUE TUE
EVENING. SO SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES SEEN HERE IN TRACK/TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. FOR NOW THE HPC/NHC AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LOOK
MUCH BETTER AS THEY MATCH UP BETTER WITH CLIMATOLOGY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. We keep watching inxests 92L and 93L.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
AREA BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
OVERNIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DOMINATING THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN ATTENTION WILL
BE ON A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE..AND ASSOCIATED LOW...WHICH IS
LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR 30W...FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. COMPUTER MODEL SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINE AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THESE SYSTEMS...AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
PLEASE REFER TO TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON IN SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 77 / 40 40 40 20
STT 90 79 88 78 / 40 40 40 20

[Gustywind]

Thanks to keep us informed Cycloneye .

[Gustywind]

Discussion from Rob of Crown Weather Services about what to expect with 92L but especially with 93L during the next couple of days.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[Macrocane]

Hi!
-Warmer than normal highs were registered again in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua but they weren't as warm as the day before yesterday. Near normal highs were registered in the rest of the countries.
-Warmer than normal lows were registered in Belize, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal lows were experienced in the other countries.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.7°C (44.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.6°C (54.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.3°C (41.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.2°C (57.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F) Warmest since June 11
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.4°C (86.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 23.1°C (73.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.5°C (94.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.3°C (50.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST FRI AUG 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION AND AN AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT
TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS
AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS... A TUTT EXTENDS
WEAKLY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE WEAK RIDGING CONTINUED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. OTHER AREAS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED
ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...
ONE NEAR 45 WEST...AND ANOTHER NEAR 28 WEST. AT THIS TIME BOTH FEATURES
HAVE A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CONFINE DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...WHILE ONLY A FEW SHOWER WERE NOTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER SUNSET
AS CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER LAND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
EARLY EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT PATCHES OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TO SLOWLY SPREAD
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES WEST SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
EXPECT A GRADUAL DRYING TREND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY
FORECAST TO SLIDE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...IN TANDEM WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED TUTT WHICH WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT OVERALL DRY AND SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERING HOW FAR AWAY THESE SYSTEMS ARE...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THEIR PROGRESS...AS THEY CONTINUE TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT MOSTLY PASSING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS PSBL IN AND AROUND
TJMZ IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA TIL 12/22Z. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM E TO
ENE AT 10 TO 20 KTS JUST ABOVE SFC THROUGH 25 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 90 / 40 40 20 30
STT 79 89 78 89 / 40 40 20 30

[Macrocane]

Good evening! The strongest quake of the year was registered tonight in El Salvador, the magnitude was 5.5 Usually I stay calmed during quakes but this one scared me , no damages have been reported thankfully. More info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2158866#p2158866

[msbee]

Good evening! The strongest quake of the year was registered tonight in El Salvador, the magnitude was 5.5 Usually I stay calmed during quakes but this one scared me , no damages have been reported thankfully. More info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2158866#p2158866

wow, that's a heavy quake Macrocane.
Glad there are no damages.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SAT AUG 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A REFLECTION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. A
SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY AS A LOW LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MOVES SOUTHWEST AND WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THETA-E AT 700MB
WILL INCREASE TODAY TO NEAR 337K...AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE...AN ACTIVE
AFTERNOON CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT...TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN A SLOT OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE EAST.

THIS DRY AIR WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURFACE LOW...WHICH CURRENTLY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA
IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MOST COMPUTER
MODELS AGREED IN A WESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS...APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE IN
TANDEM WITH THE LOW AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
SYSTEM IN A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER DAY
THREE...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW...PRODUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT UPPER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS INITIALIZING A WEAK SYSTEM. IF THIS
VERIFIES..THEN THE LOW WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
DUE TO ITS CURRENT POSITION...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS PSBL OVER TNCM...TIST...TJBQ
AND TJSJ. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTH WEST AND ACROSS THE REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TERMINALS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 20K FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 78 / 50 20 30 20
STT 88 78 89 79 / 50 20 30 20

[Macrocane]

Hi! Finally cooler temps were registered yesterday in most of Central America after almost 2 weeks of warmer than normal temps.
-Warmer than normal lows were registered yesterday in Belize and Honduras, they were cooler than normal in El Salvador and near normal in the rest of the region.
-Warmer than normal highs were eperienced in Belize, cooler than normal highs were registered in Panama and near normal in the rest of the countries.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.6°C (51.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.5°C (52.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.0°C (41.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.3°C (55.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33°C (91°F) Warmest since June 10
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.0°C (95.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)