C/S TX Weather: Seasonal with some rains

#861 Postby **Tireman4** » Tue Aug 09, 2011 9:04 pm

Good Lord and the hits keep on coming. I swear, this will be one of the hottest Augusts ever. Sigh.

gmr548 · #862 Postby **gmr548** » Tue Aug 09, 2011 9:29 pm

somethingfunny wrote:I've had enough.

We all have. I've lived in Texas all my life, but this is ridiculous. If this really is going to become the norm for summer as some are predicting, I think I'll look to relocate after I graduate.

#863 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Aug 10, 2011 3:55 pm

I don't believe it! I just don't believe it!! :eek:

Excerpts from:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KICK IN WHEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH FROM THE TX/OK BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL TX
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE CONTINUED NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT SHOULD PROMOTE AGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORM GROWTH WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WHILE MODEL QPF AND WIND FIELDS ONLY SUGGEST A SMALL
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PWAT
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORM CLUSTERS PRODUCING
SPOTTY 2-4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS...MAINLY WEST OF A LLANO TO EAGLE
PASS LINE. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 18Z NAM SHOWS AN EVER GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD TREND WITH
EACH RUN. THUS THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT THIS RAIN EVENT WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE METRO CITIES.

AS TO BE EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY. MORE INTRIGUING IS THAT THE 18Z
NAM CONTINUES LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO
THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. THUS THE EVENING SHIFT WILL BE BRIEFED TO
CONSIDER FURTHER RAIN CHANCE INCREASES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS ROTATES THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND RETURNS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. LOW TO NIL POPS AND HOT TEMPERATURES ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT THE MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
HINTS OF WEAKNESSES IN THE UPPER RIDGE AFTER IT ATTEMPTS TO
MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOST IN THE EXCITEMENT OVER A REAL CHANCE OF RAIN IS THE ONGOING
HEAT ADVY WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF I-35...AND SO LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE CONVECTION TO
THE WEST DOES NOT EXPAND EAST.

#864 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Aug 10, 2011 4:13 pm

Porta, you beat me to it! We finally have some hope for rain! I'm cautiously optimistic/excited!

#865 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Aug 10, 2011 4:53 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Porta, you beat me to it! We finally have some hope for rain! I'm cautiously optimistic/excited!

Can you believe it, man?! I want to ... but this death ridge has been unbeatable.

How cool would it be to have a large mesoscale system out west roll east-southeast and rain itself out over the Austin-San Antonio corridor?! 8-)

#866 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Aug 10, 2011 5:27 pm

Yeah, that would be perfect! I'm even more excited now as our local met here in SA just said he thinks that there is a good chance of that happening tomorrow night!

I'm really hopeful!

Kory · #867 Postby **Kory** » Wed Aug 10, 2011 6:26 pm

I wouldn't get to excited...the QPF is less than a tenth of an inch. The SREF model, used for mesoscale type systems, shows a weakening mesoscale system moving into South Central Texas.

Kory · #868 Postby **Kory** » Wed Aug 10, 2011 6:27 pm

Plus if we learned anything from tropical storm Don, it could completely evaporate once it hits the dust bowl like conditions of Texas.

#869 Postby **Tireman4** » Wed Aug 10, 2011 6:47 pm

Yeah, I will believe it when I see it. For us in Houston..not sure about anything...

Shoshana · #870 Postby **Shoshana** » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:56 pm

Austin: Wed Day 57 100+ (12 days to tie 1925's record of 69)

Day 25 in a row 100+ new record!

Day 12 105+

Day 0 in a row 105+

104 at Mabry and 103 Bergstrom (not record)

#871 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:31 pm

Portastorm wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Porta, you beat me to it! We finally have some hope for rain! I'm cautiously optimistic/excited!

Can you believe it, man?! I want to ... but this death ridge has been unbeatable.

How cool would it be to have a large mesoscale system out west roll east-southeast and rain itself out over the Austin-San Antonio corridor?!

Gee, thanks for caring about your friends in SE TX! :cheesy:

Shoshana · #872 Postby **Shoshana** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:12 am

Weather Underground says 101 for today

KXAN predicts 107

NWS 100

KEYE 104

KVUE 105

Fox7 101

BBC 106

Intellicast 106

hmmmm....

#873 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:31 am

vbhoutex wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Porta, you beat me to it! We finally have some hope for rain! I'm cautiously optimistic/excited!

Can you believe it, man?! I want to ... but this death ridge has been unbeatable.

How cool would it be to have a large mesoscale system out west roll east-southeast and rain itself out over the Austin-San Antonio corridor?!

Gee, thanks for caring about your friends in SE TX!

Darn it ... somehow the sentence "But then it would re-generate east of us and pour on our friends in SE Texas" was deleted from my post. Not sure how that happened!

#874 Postby **somethingfunny** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:25 am

omgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomg

Oklahoma City, Will Rogers World Airport
Lat: 35.41 Lon: -97.6 Elev: 1280
Last Update on Aug 11, 10:52 am CDT

Thunderstorm Light Rain

69 °F
(21 °C)
Humidity: 87 %
Wind Speed: NE 14 G 18 MPH
Barometer: 29.98" (1013.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 65 °F (18 °C)
Visibility: 7.00 mi.

OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

:eek:

#875 Postby **Tireman4** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:31 am

Wow. Something is having a heart attack....LOL

#876 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:38 am

Dallas' heat streak could be in jeopardy today! That outflow boundary is nice lookin :cheesy:

1 day shy of the record! If not today tomorrow is a close call too! Holy!

#877 Postby **Tireman4** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:42 am

Ntxw wrote:Dallas' heat streak could be in jeopardy today! That outflow boundary is nice lookin 1 day shy of the record! If not today tomorrow is a close call too! Holy!

It is time to get the Grey Goose chilling Ntxw...you all need a break. A serious break. We, on the other hand, are cursed. I am thinking we will be the record of 14 straight 100 degree days set back in July 1980 ( and I remember that. That was a rough year. I was mowing the two acres we had...still have, with a push mower and it got up to 104. My mother comes out screaming, "get yourself inside, do you want to die. I was 15 and was in my own world. The heat did not even phase me. Now, I die getting into the car. LOL)

#878 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 12:58 pm

Yeah I'm thinking the DFW 100 day streak is ending today. 1980 pops open the champagne.

#879 Postby **somethingfunny** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:02 pm

This is me right now:

That streak is going to cut it really close. Gust front looks to be about 2 hours away from KDFW, which just hit 95 at 12:53.

#880 Postby **somethingfunny** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:11 pm

The streak is TOAST!!!!! :cold:

And not a moment too soon:

Greatest Consecutive
Rank # of Days Dates
1 42 Jun 23 - Aug 3, 1980
2 40 Jul 2 - Aug 10, 2011 *
3 29 Jul 6 - Aug 3, 1998

C/S TX Weather: Seasonal with some rains

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