ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#161 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:01 pm

Very true but as we all know the death ridge has been stubborn all season.

Kory wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:If 93L would somehow make it into the GOM (still don't think so) it would more then likely be steered right into Mexico or lower TX. IMO

Well on that run of the Euro, it shows an absence of the death ridge across Texas. Anytime a system gets in the Gulf, I learn to never exclude anyone from its threat.

#162 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:02 pm

Gotcha.......thanks.

Macrocane wrote:
Stormcenter wrote: Why would you like it to continue showing this solution?

Kory said would like to see if it continues to show the solution, maybe becauso of consistency issues

Kory · #163 Postby **Kory** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:02 pm

Macrocane wrote:
Stormcenter wrote: Why would you like it to continue showing this solution?

Kory said would like to see if it continues to show the solution, maybe becauso of consistency issues

Yes you got it right.

ROCK · #164 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:03 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Props to the FIM as it seemed to the lead the more southern trend with 93L.

I noticed that as well....maybe we need to include the FIM into the late night model watch...what do you think Rock?

I am good with that...as long as I keep getting to post the NOGAPS..... :lol:

#165 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:05 pm

ROCK wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Props to the FIM as it seemed to the lead the more southern trend with 93L.

I noticed that as well....maybe we need to include the FIM into the late night model watch...what do you think Rock?

I am good with that...as long as I keep getting to post the NOGAPS.....

FIM is now included in the late night model watch :ggreen:

When NAM gets in range, you know I'll keep yall posted :wink:

ROCK · #166 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:06 pm

Stormcenter wrote:If 93L would somehow make it into the GOM (still don't think so) it would more then likely be steered right into Mexico or lower TX. IMO

SC you are looking at 240hr and beyond.....this ridge will fail as we approach mid to late August...not worried there....though I would like some rain now or at least a dark cloud... :lol:

#167 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:07 pm

This floater is unlabeled but will have it once it moves into range.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Upper right

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

#168 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:13 pm

The key thing is 240hr and beyond. I wouldn't bet 1 red cent on ANY model output EURO or whatever this far out. I'll never forget how they had Ike going up the East coast this far out and we know where he ended up. :roll:

JMHO

ROCK wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:If 93L would somehow make it into the GOM (still don't think so) it would more then likely be steered right into Mexico or lower TX. IMO

SC you are looking at 240hr and beyond.....this ridge will fail as we approach mid to late August...not worried there....though I would like some rain now or at least a dark cloud...

#169 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:33 pm

18Z GFS rolling....

#170 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:48 pm

GFS 18Z H+24 initiated well and westbound..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal024.gif

#171 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:15 pm

H+96 strengthening and continuing westbound..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif

#172 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:24 pm

H+132 stronger w/wnw...near 16/55

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal132.gif

#173 Postby **lonelymike** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:26 pm

Gotta agree with Gatorcane on this one :double:

....Euro doesn't really show much on day 9 or 10....that being said it is more than a week out ....it'll make for an interesting few nites of model wars between Euroboy and the Nam Lover

#174 Postby **lonelymike** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:29 pm

With Rock doin the TX Euro GOM dance over the model thread I'm surpised there's not more interest in 93 as it could be the more signifcant system.......

#175 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:30 pm

H+150 looks like it may miss the northen leewards to the north..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal150.gif

#176 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:33 pm

H+162 strengthening, inside herbert box. Just NE of Antigua...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal162.gif

#177 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:36 pm

H+174 safe distance N of Leewards, may be a recurve this run...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal174.gif

Hurricaneman · #178 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:38 pm

lonelymike wrote:With Rock doin the TX Euro GOM dance over the model thread I'm surpised there's not more interest in 93 as it could be the more signifcant system.......

Probably because most of the systems that formed this year have been decoupled systems and people are taking it with an Ill believe it when I see it attitude I believe, but this sould in my opinion be taken very seriously

#179 Postby **Fego** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:39 pm

Vortex wrote:H+174 safe distance N of Leewards, may be a recurve this run...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal174.gif

Both, 92L and 93L cross almost the same spot 20 North - 60 West.

#180 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:41 pm

Interested in the 18Z GFS ensembles later...Also, GFDL/HWRF out in just over an hour.

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