ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Vortex]

H+192 moving wnw/nw



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal192.gif

[Vortex]

bombing out near 26/72 slow mover with ridging building to the N....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal240.gif

[Hurricaneman]

looks to be a ridge trying to build over this at 192 if that happens the Carolinas northward are going to have to watch this, but as I look at it, we have to see where it happens to be in 5 days and Florida needs to pay attention for this could be a strong system

[Vortex]

Severe hurricane hit on South Carolina...ridging blocks northward progression and turns back w/wnw



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal312.gif

[Vortex]

looks to be a ridge trying to build over this at 192 if that happens the Carolinas northward are going to have to watch this, but as I look at it, we have to see where it happens to be in 5 days and Florida needs to pay attention for this could be a strong system

Good call....

[cycloneye]

With Rock doin the TX Euro GOM dance over the model thread I'm surpised there's not more interest in 93 as it could be the more signifcant system.......

Probably because most of the systems that formed this year have been decoupled systems and people are taking it with an Ill believe it when I see it attitude I believe, but this sould in my opinion be taken very seriously

Another factor is this system is very far from any land to it's west. I see things picking up here as soon is classified and the models become more clear on track.

[Vortex]

Could be a real problem anywhere from the Gulf to the Carolinas....including PR/Leewards...certainly looks to be a player and a strong one at that.

[Blown Away]

Severe hurricane hit on South Carolina...ridging blocks northward progression and turns back w/wnw



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal312.gif

SC hits from W tracking CV systems are not that common, if it showed a NC/OB type hit that says recurve potential, looks like that ridge is building at that time. This could be a legit EC threat!

[Vortex]

18Z GFS ensembles start rolling in about 745...

[Ivanhater]

Would you look at that...big ridge building forcing 93L into the SE Coast....both the GFS and Euro show a U.S hit (Euro upper air pattern showing a Florida Straits run).....get that coffee or energy shots handy

[South Texas Storms]

Would you look at that...big ridge building forcing 93L into the SE Coast....both the GFS and Euro show a U.S hit (Euro upper air pattern showing a Florida Straits run).....get that coffee or energy shots handy

Yep Michael it looks like we will be staying up late model watching at least for the next week.

[HURRICANELONNY]

So am I getting this straight. If 92L gets stronger earlier then expected 93L could follow in its path. Which could be farther north or a fish. Or could 92L get absorbed in 93L?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
8PM

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ConvergenceZone]

While, we would consider it fantasy this far out, the last GFS run is what horror movies are made of.
Pretty scary to see that bomb hitting the Carolinas.

[lonelymike]

Intensity models really don't do much with this storm over the next week.

[Kohlecane]

I live in Charleston SC, may i see the links for these runs of it hitting Carolina's

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD Special Feature:

A WELL-DEFINED 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 195 NM S OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N24W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING N
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 19N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 22W-25W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES W AT 13-17
KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

18z GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL carribean bound


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]