ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Sure is

[OuterBanker]

Geeze, is that 92 or 93 l on 18z gfs. Maybe I'll just stop looking at the 18z.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensemble Control Run which goes out to 360hrs, has 93L near 25N 77W by Aug 22 and moves very slowly N NW through the state of Florida. It finally has 93L moving out of the state by Aug 25 in the evening.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011081200, , BEST, 0, 110N, 256W, 25, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 120105
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0105 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110812 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110812 0000 110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 25.6W 11.5N 27.8W 12.2N 29.9W 12.8N 32.7W
BAMD 11.0N 25.6W 11.3N 28.1W 11.7N 30.5W 12.1N 32.9W
BAMM 11.0N 25.6W 11.3N 28.4W 11.5N 31.0W 11.8N 33.7W
LBAR 11.0N 25.6W 11.5N 28.8W 12.0N 32.4W 12.4N 35.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110814 0000 110815 0000 110816 0000 110817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 36.0W 14.1N 43.5W 13.8N 50.4W 14.2N 56.2W
BAMD 12.7N 35.2W 14.3N 39.2W 16.9N 42.4W 20.3N 45.1W
BAMM 12.2N 36.3W 13.4N 41.7W 15.3N 46.9W 17.7N 52.9W
LBAR 12.8N 39.2W 13.1N 45.2W 13.4N 48.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 70KTS 82KTS 93KTS
DSHP 54KTS 70KTS 82KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 25.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 22.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 19.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



[Blown Away]

12zECMWF Ensemble Control Run which goes out to 360hrs, has 93L near 25N 77W by Aug 22 and moves very slowly N NW through the state of Florida. It finally has 93L moving out of the state by Aug 25 in the evening.

Can you provide a link for that run? Thanks.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensemble Control Run which goes out to 360hrs, has 93L near 25N 77W by Aug 22 and moves very slowly N NW through the state of Florida. It finally has 93L moving out of the state by Aug 25 in the evening.

Can you provide a link for that run? Thanks.

Sorry its on Accuweather Pro.

[cycloneye]

Wow,a complete discussion this evening by the San Juan NWS regarding 92L and 93L especially with 93L.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
915 PM AST THU AUG 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEK. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE ECNTRL ATLC MAY
BECOME TROPICAL CYCLONES OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND COULD APPROACH
THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG NOTED EARLIER THIS EVENING ON 11-3.9
MICRON IMAGERY ACROSS THE SRN SLOPES FROM MARICAO EAST TO JAYUYA BUT
SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT MORE RECENTLY. ALSO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING FROM THE EAST MAY PREVENT ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

THINGS LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND STABLE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PR. MODEL
FIELDS OF H85 THETAE ALL SHOW A DECLINE OVR THE WEEKEND WHILE K
INDEX AND PW REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A
WEAKER TUTT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND WITH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING STRONGER.

NEXT WEEK...FORECAST WILL HINGE ON TRACK OF TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES
ACROSS THE ECNTRL ATLC. FIRST LOW (INVEST 92L) LOOKING LESS
ORGANIZED AS DISCUSSED IN LATEST TROPICAL WX OTLK. SOME MODELS
ACTUALLY DO NOT GIVE THIS SYSTEM MUCH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFDL JUST SHOWING AN OPEN TROUGH.

INVEST 93L LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM OVR THE WEEKEND. HPC/NHC
COORDINATION INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TAKING A MORE WWD TRACK WITH
HPC DY3-DY7 EXTENDED GRAPHICS INDICATING A TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST
SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX BY 12Z THU AUG 18. THE 12Z ECMWF (THE TOP
PERFORMER OVR THE PAST THREE YEARS) SHOWS SYSTEM TRACKING BETWEEN
ST. JOHN AND ANEGADA ISLAND NEXT THU WITH THE SECOND MOST RELIABLE
MODEL THE GFDL TAKING IT RATHER BRISKLY ACROSS MARTINIQUE TUE
EVENING. SO SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES SEEN HERE IN TRACK/TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. FOR NOW THE HPC/NHC AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LOOK
MUCH BETTER AS THEY MATCH UP BETTER WITH CLIMATOLOGY.

[Rgv20]

12zUkmet very similar as to what the 12zGFS is showing track wise for 93L. In my opinion 93L is Caribbean bound just like the 12zGFDL is suggesting.


12zUKMET forecast valid Wednesday Morning, it looks like 93L is SE of Puerto Rico.

[MGC]

Yep, I think 93L is the one to watch this coming week.....MGC

[Chigger_Lopez]

93 is catching 92 rapidly it appears to me. I guess that is why some of the models seem to only show one storm and we all scratch our heads. 93 looks like its going to eat 92

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks as though we have some more late nights ahead watching all the models. ( Crossing fingers everything will be ok here in Pcola for daughters wedding on the beach on the 20th) Crossing my fingers everyone everywhere else is ok also. Maybe one will eat the other, hang a right, and bother the fish and nobody else.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS...108 HOURS....Really far south



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[Ivanhater]

120 hours...It's Caribbean bound folks



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[SouthDadeFish]

120 hours...It's Caribbean bound folks



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That's one big ridge. Biggest I've seen from the GFS thus far with 93L.

[Ivanhater]

132 hours



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[Ivanhater]

138 hours...landfall central Lesser Antilles



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[Ivanhater]

120 hours...It's Caribbean bound folks



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That's one big ridge. Biggest I've seen from the GFS thus far with 93L.

Yep..strongest I have seen in a while

[Ivanhater]

150 hours...approaching PR



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[SouthDadeFish]

Look at the Death Ridge still firmly in place over Texas. Won't be going into the Gulf with that thing there.