ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

edit under PR and Hispa....finally taking off....

I think its having a hard time with 92 and 93 so close to each other.....any rate another swing west on this run

[BigB0882]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Apologies for quoting a pic but I wanted to make sure people understood my question.

Would those 3 H's sitting all across the gulf coast protect us from any landfalls? Assuming the map is correct...of course.

[ROCK]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Apologies for quoting a pic but I wanted to make sure people understood my question.

Would those 3 H's sitting all across the gulf coast protect us from any landfalls? Assuming the map is correct...of course.

thats the old run...the new run out 168 has this in the central carib.....but to answer your question yes that is the death ridge that is making me drink treated sewage...

[ROCK]

way south and west as it delays development probably due to 92L in the way.....

[BigB0882]

Why has the death ridge been sitting over this part of the country for so long? What does it take to get them to move? I don't want a storm but I am sick and tired of this heat and I think my parents in TX may have to be committed if it doesn't rain soon! Sorry, no more off topic.

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

IVAN part III maybe? around Jamaica.....deepening....

[ROCK]

Why has the death ridge been sitting over this part of the country for so long? What does it take to get them to move? I don't want a storm but I am sick and tired of this heat and I think my parents in TX may have to be committed if it doesn't rain soon! Sorry, no more off topic.

it will move as we move into late Aug....slide east and will open the door....It did a few weeks ago and got some good rain but it only lasted a few days.....it will happen trust me....

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

heading to the Yuc channel folks....you GOMERS need to wake up!!

on second thought look at that ridge from hell..... it will make the GOM though

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

[ROCK]

240hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif

over the Yuc around the tip and pretty deep....

[ROCK]

so the moral of the story is wayyyy south with this run and will make the GOM......

[SoupBone]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP216.gif

heading to the Yuc channel folks....you GOMERS need to wake up!!

on second thought look at that ridge from hell..... it will make the GOM though

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

Looks like the ridge is holding tight in that last one.

[South Texas Storms]

Wake up everyone! This next week will be very interesting! This could be a doozy imo.

[bamajammer4eva]

Hmm so looks like either Islands then the fishes if you believe the GFS or another Mexico Landfall if you like the Euro. No?

[lonelymike]

Throw these runs out . Models are being inconsistent and there is a lot of fluidity with the dynamics of the t-wave. Once it gets it act together then the models should begin to perform better. IMHO.

[floridasun78]

ture we need 93l to look better before models start picking system better now all is guess that why you see all cazy tracks

[Vortex]

6Z GFS much further south and into E carribean at H+150..folowing EURO so far





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[Meso]

So far the 06z run is quite different to previous runs. It takes 93L across the Atlantic, keeping it very weak, as a wave. Seeming to track far south of the previous forecasts, which makes sense since it's keeping it a lot weaker, closing it off for a few hours before reaching the Caribbean and then again for a few hours in the Caribbean. It looks to be back and forth with the system going between wave and closed low.

It then slowly moves westward through the Caribbean for a good few days before ending up becoming a closed low again near the Yucatan, and at 270 hours, it's pretty close to where the EURO had it at 240 hours. It then moves into the gulf, in a NW direction and makes landfall as a weak storm in Texas. Texans would love it if that run came true.

[SFLcane]

6Z GFS much further south and into E carribean at H+150..folowing EURO so far





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

If it developes at all If these runs pan out it may run into central america and not be much of a threat to the U.S. down the line.

[Blown Away]

6Z GFS much further south and into E carribean at H+150..folowing EURO so far
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

If these runs pan out it may run into central america and not be much of a threat to the U.S. down the line.

Seems the EURO & GFS don't really develop 93L until it's in the Caribbean, maybe that's why we are seeing a weaker/shallow 93L track more southerly?

[Kory]

6Z GFS much further south and into E carribean at H+150..folowing EURO so far





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

If these runs pan out it may run into central america and not be much of a threat to the U.S. down the line.

That system looks pretty weak moving through the E Caribbean?

Yes it remains weak due to the dry air or SAL. It its forecasted to stregthen as it hits the central and western Caribbean and then should be influenced by the upper levels.