ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

Well then, four in a row...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108121229
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2011, DB, O, 2011081212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952011
AL, 95, 2011081112, , BEST, 0, 304N, 740W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011081118, , BEST, 0, 314N, 724W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011081200, , BEST, 0, 325N, 706W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011081206, , BEST, 0, 336N, 688W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 348N, 668W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


And the TWO for 95L (as it is posted in the Talkin Tropics thread for this system):

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Link to the TT thread:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111433

[Extratropical94]

All the model stuff goes here

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 121230
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110812 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110812  1200   110813  0000   110813  1200   110814  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    34.8N  66.8W   35.8N  64.0W   36.7N  61.9W   37.5N  60.2W
BAMD    34.8N  66.8W   37.1N  62.5W   39.7N  57.8W   42.2N  51.0W
BAMM    34.8N  66.8W   36.6N  63.3W   38.4N  60.0W   40.0N  56.1W
LBAR    34.8N  66.8W   37.1N  63.0W   40.4N  58.8W   43.8N  53.2W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110814  1200   110815  1200   110816  1200   110817  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    38.4N  58.6W   39.7N  54.0W   40.7N  49.8W   42.6N  45.3W
BAMD    43.4N  42.5W   44.5N  25.9W   46.7N   8.0W   48.6N   8.5E
BAMM    41.1N  51.8W   42.1N  43.7W   40.9N  38.3W   39.3N  37.2W
LBAR    46.2N  45.1W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        44KTS          34KTS          21KTS           0KTS
DSHP        44KTS          34KTS          21KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  34.8N LONCUR =  66.8W DIRCUR =  55DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
LATM12 =  32.5N LONM12 =  70.6W DIRM12 =  53DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  30.4N LONM24 =  74.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Gustywind]

Trafficjam in store this morning with all these invest ( 92,93,94,95) but let's hope that one of them could pose a threat to any land areas.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[brunota2003]

Can we please get a named system? I mean, good grief Charlie Brown, there's ONLY 4 invests out there (would be way less confusing if one or two became named)! On another note, it does look very good!

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track for 95L

AL, 95, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 348N, 668W, 25, 1011, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[Macrocane]

4 invests, someone turned the swith on. Let's see how many of them become named storms.

[cycloneye]

:eek: 4 invests, someone turned the swith on. Let's see how many of them become named storms.

Interesting question for a poll at TT.

[HeeBGBz]

Looked what popped up! Two new ones. Interesting days ahead for storm watching.

[floridasun78]

train of invests we know we peak part of season

[cycloneye]

:eek: 4 invests, someone turned the swith on. Let's see how many of them become named storms.

Interesting question for a poll at TT.

I made a thread at Talking Tropics forum about which of the invests will be named storms.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I am confused. Are either 94L or 95L remnants of Emily or new waves entirely?

[xironman]

94l picked up some of Emily's moisture, but the main vorticity went northeast, so in my opinion it is a new system.

[NDG]

95L is the best looking invest of them all this morning, as far as organization. With a well defined circulation, it just needs a little bit more convection and its possible LLC to strengthen a little bit more for it to become a TD in the next 12-24 hrs.

[CrazyC83]

Main problem with this system is time - it only has a short window to develop.

[SouthDadeFish]

This could arguably be a TC now, or at least in my book:

[OuterBanker]

Seems storms that get named become fish. This one has the best structure of all of them. It will add to the name list and bother no one.

[cycloneye]

Seems storms that get named become fish. This one has the best structure of all of them. It will add to the name list and bother no one.

You are right.Is now with a code red at 60%.

[Ivanhater]

60 percent

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.