ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Oooh.....this looks like another Cindy.
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NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Fyzn94 wrote:Oooh.....this looks like another Cindy.
Yes indeed. 95L will have the same result as well, which is to become extratropical in a couple of days in the North Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
18z Best Track for 95L
AL, 95, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 356N, 647W, 30, 1011, DB
AL, 95, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 356N, 647W, 30, 1011, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Well doesn't the Atlantic look like an assembly line and a HALF at the moment.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looks like a TS to me now. And look right behind it near 32N/72W - another one is developing and it's not even an invest yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Looks like a TS to me now. And look right behind it near 32N/72W - another one is developing and it's not even an invest yet.
Is there a recon flight scheduled?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
underthwx wrote:wxman57 wrote:Looks like a TS to me now. And look right behind it near 32N/72W - another one is developing and it's not even an invest yet.
Is there a recon flight scheduled?
I don't know. They're both heading out to sea so no big deal.
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I have to agree. Although most satellite scat passes have missed 95L, the few that have hit the sides of it have shown it has west and south winds on corresponding sides. This looks like a quickly building tropical storm with a short window of opportunity. My only concern is that it is still cold cored, and will only be marginally warm core in 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
It's 06L now:
[16:12] (@s2k_twitter) RENUMBER al95 al06
[16:12] (@s2k_twitter) BEST TRACK: AL06, 357N 647W, 30kts, 1011mb, TD INVEST
- לסטר
[16:12] (@s2k_twitter) RENUMBER al95 al06
[16:12] (@s2k_twitter) BEST TRACK: AL06, 357N 647W, 30kts, 1011mb, TD INVEST
- לסטר
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
AL, 06, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 357N, 647W, 30, TD 1011,
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Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:I really think this should be classified at 5pm. I see no reason why it is not a tropical/subtropical cyclone.
The NHC listened to me
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ATL: FRANKLIN - Advisories
Advisories on TD6 (maybe future Franklin) can be posted here.
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Sat Aug 13, 2011 3:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:AL, 06, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 357N, 647W, 30, TD 1011,
THank-a-You NHC
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
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Re: ATL: SIX - Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
2100 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 63.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 63.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 64.7W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 37.0N 61.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 38.5N 57.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 39.8N 53.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 40.6N 49.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 50SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 63.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE
UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 63.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
NNNN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE PAST DAY OR
TWO HAS LOST ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED
ON ITS PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER BUOY
REPORTS...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
NOT FORECAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...FAIRLY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25C AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 065/14 AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL HEADING UNTIL IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 36.0N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 37.0N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 38.5N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 39.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 40.6N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
2100 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 63.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 63.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 64.7W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 37.0N 61.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 38.5N 57.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 39.8N 53.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 40.6N 49.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 50SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 63.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE
UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 63.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
NNNN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE PAST DAY OR
TWO HAS LOST ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED
ON ITS PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER BUOY
REPORTS...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
NOT FORECAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...FAIRLY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25C AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 065/14 AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL HEADING UNTIL IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 36.0N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 37.0N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 38.5N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 39.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 40.6N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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